POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL __ SHIPS TRANSIT THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ ON ANY DAY BY JUNE 30?

Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
8.5¢
NO · live
91.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 9s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
20.45%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
1.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1048
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
8.5¢
NO · live
91.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0744 · σ=0.0095 · range [0.0650, 0.1100] · R²=0.050▼ FALLING -22.73%σ HIGH 12.77%LAST 0.08500.11000.09880.08750.07620.0650μ = 0.0744max 0.1100min 0.0650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 8.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 8.5%NO 91.5%NO91.5%91.50¢ · odds 1/1.09
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.420 / 1.00 bits (42%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
8.5%8.5¢11.76×▬ +0.00pp
NO
91.5%91.5¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,350 · μ=56.2 · σ=91.3 · CV=1.62BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=30100200300400μ = 5640050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1350bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.5s
▲YES mid
8.50¢ (8.50%)
▼NO mid
91.50¢ (91.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$48.3k
≋liquidity $
$28.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0744 · σ=0.0095 · range [0.0650, 0.1100] · R²=0.050▼ FALLING -22.73%σ HIGH 12.77%LAST 0.08500.11000.09880.08750.07620.0650μ = 0.0744max 0.1100min 0.0650dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 8.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9256 · σ=0.0095 · range [0.8900, 0.9350] · R²=0.050▲ RISING +2.81%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.91500.93500.92380.91250.90120.8900μ = 0.9256max 0.9350min 0.8900dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 91.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0104 · skew=-1.99 (left-skewed) · kurt=4.91 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1296301-3.72ppbin -3.72pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -3.72pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-3.17pp-2.62pp1-2.07ppbin -2.07pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -2.07pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-1.52pp-0.97pp4-0.42ppbin -0.42pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin -0.42pp · n=4 · 33.3% peak120.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak20.68ppbin 0.68pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.68pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak41.23ppbin 1.23pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakbin 1.23pp · n=4 · 33.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.07 · kurt=5.71 · near 10 / mid 13 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.67σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=5.22)
μ MEAN7.44¢95% CI: [7.07¢, 7.81¢]
σ STD DEV0.95ppσ² = 0.902 · CV = 12.77%
med MEDIAN7.00¢Q₁ 7.00¢ · Q₃ 7.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 4.50pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→1.28pp)
min 6.50¢Q₁ 7.00¢med 7.00¢Q₃ 7.50¢max 11.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.124right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.221leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.46
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.56
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.74
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.400within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.316lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.743strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.100fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.743
H = 0.743STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.400k=2+0.316k=3-0.075k=4-0.107k=5+0.0810+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.10)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.40 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.89very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.10)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2412404
SLUGwill-80-ships-tr…june-30-2026
CATEGORYWill __ ships tr… by June 30?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (92¢)
PRIMARY · YES8.50¢implied prob 8.50% · decimal odds 11.76×
COUNTER · NO91.50¢implied prob 91.50% · decimal odds 1.09×
8.50¢
91.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME48.27k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY28.36k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (92¢)|primary − counter| = 0.830 · entropy 0.420 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 8.5%NO 91.5%YES p̂8.5%H = 0.420 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES11.76×(9¢)NO1.09×(92¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.420 bits (42% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 16:00 UTC
10days
02hrs
53min
10.12 days·θ = 4.654 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 8.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 91.5%)
current: $0.0850 · expected return per side: $0.92 on YES hit · $0.09 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.1dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.95% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.654 pp/day
now10.12d left
4.654 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.59d left
5.374 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.06d left
6.582 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.53d left
9.308 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.01d left
14.717 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.56%BEARISH SESSION -2.50%BEST+1.50%2hWORST-4.00%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.56%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.43% · Σ -3.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.50%+0.00%-4.50%-4.00% · 1h-4.00% · 1h-4.00%1h▼ WORST1.50% · 2h1.50% · 2h1.50%2h★ BEST-2.00% · 3h-2.00% · 3h-2.00%3h1.00% · 4h1.00% · 4h1.00%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h1.00% · 7h1.00% · 7h1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h-0.50% · 9h-0.50% · 9h-0.50%9h-0.50% · 10h-0.50% · 10h-0.50%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.50% · 14h0.50% · 14h0.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h1.00% · 23h1.00% · 23h1.00%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.50%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 25% down · 50% flat
6 up bars · 6 down · best 1.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.562%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.60%)FINAL-2.60%MAX DD-4.52%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9740 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9548, 1.0000]1.00000.9548break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.52% · moderate0%-4.52%▼ TROUGH -4.52%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.52%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.52%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9740 (-2.60%) · max DD -4.52% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −8 (37% positive) · μ=2.08 · σ=34.90MIXED EDGELAST 55.93 (+1.54σ vs μ)85.4442.720.00-42.72-85.44μ = 2.08-30.57-30.5712.0812.08-7.00-7.0022.8322.83-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-13.34-85.44-85.44-38.21-38.21-20.72-20.720.000.000.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2155.9355.9355.9355.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 55.934 · range [-85.44, 55.93] · μ 2.076 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.3748 · σ=45.9440 · range [0.0000, 191.0497] · R²=0.573▼ FALLING -79.51%σ EXTREME 93.05%LAST 39.1535191.0497143.287395.524947.76240.0000μ = 49.3748max 191.0497min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.57μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 39.15% · range [0.00%, 191.05%] · μ 49.37% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −11 (21% positive) · μ=-0.123 · σ=0.249MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.071 (+0.78σ vs μ)0.6330.3170.000-0.317-0.633μ = -0.123-0.533-0.533-0.633-0.633-0.384-0.384-0.262-0.262-0.150-0.150-0.150-0.1500.0930.093-0.500-0.5000.0670.067-0.010-0.0100.0000.0000.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.3570.3570.0710.071v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.071 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
74.4016
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.9238
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1592
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-6.8924
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5448
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2525
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2650
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.8905
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0587
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.425 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.18e-4 · top T=2.40h (19.5%) · top-3 cover 48.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.8e-42.1e-41.4e-46.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.17e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.17e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.30e-4 · 9.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.23e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.07e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.85e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.85e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.61e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.61e-6 · 0.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.45e-4 · 10.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.77e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.77e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.75e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.75e-4 · 19.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.26e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.26e-4 · 16.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-4 · 12.5% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 19.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.413e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 10.1 d · σ/bar 0.248pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 3.87ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0694 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.004pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.248pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
3.87pp
σ × √242.8997811111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0694
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.41pp · ES₉₅ 0.52pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.004pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.41pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.52pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
80.6pp
peak 36.0¢ → trough 7.0¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
8.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
11.765
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1076
$100 wins $1076
FractionalUK
10.76 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1076.47
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 8.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.420 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.420 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.56 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.13 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
49177764125930439353870176407343774896592468056143713692878748723750348754820
NO token ID
268831443455520900216404390678027029685542316312811622431219884755192743948
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 13:05:51 UTC
Snapshot age
9.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 13:06:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
735651d36496bb749f626b2708d5db0fd8d580f786d4ee89b5a77fe8585d5f66 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.4¢HL PREDPortugal85.0¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,593HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.67HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,725.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.085000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1176.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.559
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.612
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1390456358.23bp0.26000015FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.37338833928.02bp0.61000049FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.78176181971.90bp0.99000087FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0685451935.90bp0.0400005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0361565746.31bp0.0100008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0361565746.31bp0.0100008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1994.35%
σ per bar = 0.015065
Mean return (annualised)
-48013.30%
μ per bar = -0.000274
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.07
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
80.56%
peak 0.36 → trough 0.07 over 3189 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-80-ships-transit-the-strait-of-hormuz-on-any-day-by-june-30-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON