POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Asia (AFC) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-asia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.67%
realized vol (ann.)
1.48%
max drawdown
2.33%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.97%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.40%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.33%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.67%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -6.67%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-asia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0221 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.0205, 0.0245] · R²=0.633▼ FALLING -8.89%σ NORMAL 4.23%LAST 0.02050.02450.02350.02250.02150.0205μ = 0.0221max 0.0245min 0.0205dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%NO97.9%97.90¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.147 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢47.62×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.9%97.9¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=70 · μ=2.9 · σ=5.3 · CV=1.82BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=605101520μ = 32050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 70bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2ms
▲YES mid
2.10¢ (2.10%)
▼NO mid
97.90¢ (97.90%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$48.6k
≋liquidity $
$164.8k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0221 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.0205, 0.0245] · R²=0.633▼ FALLING -8.89%σ NORMAL 4.23%LAST 0.02050.02450.02350.02250.02150.0205μ = 0.0221max 0.0245min 0.0205dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9779 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.9755, 0.9795] · R²=0.633▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.10%LAST 0.97950.97950.97850.97750.97650.9755μ = 0.9779max 0.9795min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.63μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0006 · skew=0.73 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.44 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128401-0.13ppbin -0.13pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.13pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak1-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin -0.10pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak4-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=4 · 25.0% peakbin -0.06pp · n=4 · 25.0% peak-0.03pp160.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak10.04ppbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.04pp · n=1 · 6.3% peak0.08pp0.11pp0.15pp10.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 0.18pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.09 · kurt=5.23 · near 9 / mid 13 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN2.21¢95% CI: [2.17¢, 2.25¢]
σ STD DEV0.09ppσ² = 87.500×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.23%
med MEDIAN2.25¢Q₁ 2.15¢ · Q₃ 2.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.40pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.13pp)
min 2.05¢Q₁ 2.15¢med 2.25¢Q₃ 2.25¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.381approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.130mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.43
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.26
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.28
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.471negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.223lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.937strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.304significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.937
H = 0.937STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.471k=2+0.223k=3-0.103k=4+0.077k=5-0.0940+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.30)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.47 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.30)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID840928
SLUGwill-asia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.10¢implied prob 2.10% · decimal odds 47.62×
COUNTER · NO97.90¢implied prob 97.90% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.10¢
97.90¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME48.56k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY164.80k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.958 · entropy 0.147 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.147 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES47.62×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.147 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.15% · typical |Δ| 0.03%MILD BEARISH -0.20%BEST+0.20%5hWORST-0.15%6hTYPICAL |Δ|0.03%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.20%+0.20%-0.20%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.20% · 5h0.20% · 5h0.20%5h★ BEST-0.15% · 6h-0.15% · 6h-0.15%6h▼ WORST0.05% · 7h0.05% · 7h0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH8% up · 25% down · 67% flat
2 up bars · 6 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.15% · typical |Δ| 0.029%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.20%)FINAL-0.20%MAX DD-0.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9980 · peak 1.0020 · range [0.9980, 1.0020]1.00200.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.40% · shallow0%-0.40%▼ TROUGH -0.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.40%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9980 (-0.20%) · max DD -0.40% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −11 (21% positive) · μ=-26.00 · σ=29.10UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -60.42 (-1.18σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -26.007.007.0013.8613.866.736.736.736.730.000.00-45.67-45.67-20.72-20.72-76.42-76.42-55.93-55.93-55.93-55.93-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -60.415 · range [-76.42, 13.86] · μ -26.001 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=4.9208 · σ=3.9090 · range [0.0000, 11.0743] · R²=0.758▼ FALLING -76.83%σ EXTREME 79.44%LAST 2.416611.07438.30575.53712.76860.0000μ = 4.9208max 11.0743min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.76μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 2.42% · range [0.00%, 11.07%] · μ 4.92% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −14 (11% positive) · μ=-0.267 · σ=0.305MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.167 (+1.42σ vs μ)0.6100.3050.000-0.305-0.610μ = -0.267-0.511-0.511-0.610-0.610-0.610-0.610-0.604-0.604-0.571-0.571-0.548-0.548-0.480-0.480-0.333-0.333-0.500-0.500-0.357-0.357-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.4170.4170.1670.167v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.167 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
51.7300
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
8.2159
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1435
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1390
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7004
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0000
p-VALUE (log scale)
1.0000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7355
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0103
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4327
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1519
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.564 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.75e-7 · top T=2.40h (21.2%) · top-3 cover 57.1%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)9.5e-77.1e-74.8e-72.4e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.39e-8 · 1.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.39e-8 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.39e-7 · 7.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.39e-7 · 7.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.69e-8 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.69e-8 · 1.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 1.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.29e-8 · 1.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.83e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.83e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.90e-7 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.90e-7 · 10.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 5.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.60e-7 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.05e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.05e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.53e-7 · 21.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 9.53e-7 · 21.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.51e-7 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 9.51e-7 · 21.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-7 · 14.8% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 21.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.500e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3841 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.06ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0206 · n = 3841✓ n = 3841
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move7d
0.06pp
σ × √168
Terminal variancebinary
0.0206
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3841
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
14.3pp
peak 2.5¢ → trough 2.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
47.619
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4662
$100 wins $4662
FractionalUK
46.62 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4661.90
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.147 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.147 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.57 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
38286659703763263171749995601600703585632612099845851532284779969344448778945
NO token ID
27781013327597414628094993293494803740992999187710228523392113572875786931740
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:14:57 UTC
Snapshot age
2ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:14:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
5ce4b73e42e255ab5e8c0407030290da9159f829448eb2f9c0cdc988479ca449 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,084.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,664.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.34

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.020500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
487.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.977
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.725
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-asia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0257222547.13bp0.0320006FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.10964543485.35bp0.66000026FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.501462234615.47bp0.88900036FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.020000243.90bp0.0200001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0129063704.32bp0.0010009PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0129063704.32bp0.0010009PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,841 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
248.08%
σ per bar = 0.001874
Mean return (annualised)
-3149.43%
μ per bar = -0.000018
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.70
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
14.29%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 3237 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-asia-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON