POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
32.5¢
NO · live
67.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
132.42%
max drawdown
7.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.11%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.63%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.62%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
32.5¢
NO · live
67.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.3370 · σ=0.0205 · range [0.3150, 0.3750] · R²=0.446▼ FALLING -9.33%σ HIGH 6.07%LAST 0.34000.37500.36000.34500.33000.3150μ = 0.3370max 0.3750min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 34.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 32.5%NO 67.5%NO67.5%67.50¢ · odds 1/1.48
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.910 / 1.00 bits (91%) · high uncertainty
YES
32.5%32.5¢3.08×▬ +0.00pp
NO
67.5%67.5¢1.48×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=1,650 · μ=68.8 · σ=88.2 · CV=1.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100100200300400μ = 6940050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 1650bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
▲YES mid
32.50¢ (32.50%)
▼NO mid
67.50¢ (67.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$229.6k
≋liquidity $
$67.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3370 · σ=0.0205 · range [0.3150, 0.3750] · R²=0.446▼ FALLING -9.33%σ HIGH 6.07%LAST 0.34000.37500.36000.34500.33000.3150μ = 0.3370max 0.3750min 0.3150dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 34.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6630 · σ=0.0205 · range [0.6250, 0.6850] · R²=0.446▲ RISING +5.60%σ NORMAL 3.09%LAST 0.66000.68500.67000.65500.64000.6250μ = 0.6630max 0.6850min 0.6250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.45μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 66.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0004 · σ=0.0109 · skew=-1.56 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.05 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-3.72ppbin -3.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -3.72pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-3.17pp-2.62pp-2.07pp2-1.52ppbin -1.52pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -1.52pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak2-0.97ppbin -0.97pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.97pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak2-0.42ppbin -0.42pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.42pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak90.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.13pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak40.68ppbin 0.68pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 0.68pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak41.23ppbin 1.23pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 1.23pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.70 · kurt=4.02 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.45)
μ MEAN33.70¢95% CI: [32.90¢, 34.50¢]
σ STD DEV2.05ppσ² = 4.187 · CV = 6.07%
med MEDIAN33.50¢Q₁ 31.50¢ · Q₃ 35.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 6.00pp · IQR 4.00pp (1.349σ→2.76pp)
min 31.50¢Q₁ 31.50¢med 33.50¢Q₃ 35.50¢max 37.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.312approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.449platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.10
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.69
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.93
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.112within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.008lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.990strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.307significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.990
H = 0.990STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.112k=2-0.008k=3+0.101k=4-0.211k=5-0.0330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.31)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.31)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682705
SLUGwill-benjamin-ne…er-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (68¢)
PRIMARY · YES32.50¢implied prob 32.50% · decimal odds 3.08×
COUNTER · NO67.50¢implied prob 67.50% · decimal odds 1.48×
32.50¢
67.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME229.57k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY67.10k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (68¢)|primary − counter| = 0.350 · entropy 0.910 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 32.5%NO 67.5%YES p̂32.5%H = 0.910 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES3.08×(33¢)NO1.48×(68¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.910 bits (91% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
12hrs
50min
199.53 days·θ = 10.025 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 32.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 67.5%)
current: $0.3250 · expected return per side: $0.68 on YES hit · $0.33 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.05% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 10.025 pp/day
now199.53d left
10.025 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.65d left
11.576 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.77d left
14.177 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.88d left
20.050 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.95d left
31.702 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.69%BEARISH SESSION -3.50%BEST+1.50%20hWORST-4.00%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.69%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.62% · Σ -5.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.25% · Σ +2.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.50%+0.00%-6.00%-1.00% · 1h-1.00% · 1h-1.00%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-1.50% · 3h-1.50% · 3h-1.50%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h1.00% · 6h1.00% · 6h1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-1.50% · 8h-1.50% · 8h-1.50%8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h-4.00% · 10h-4.00% · 10h-4.00%10h▼ WORST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h1.00% · 12h1.00% · 12h1.00%12h-1.00% · 13h-1.00% · 13h-1.00%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.50% · 17h0.50% · 17h0.50%17h-0.50% · 18h-0.50% · 18h-0.50%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h1.50% · 20h1.50% · 20h1.50%20h★ BEST0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.50% · 24h0.50% · 24h0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+2.00%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH33% up · 29% down · 38% flat
8 up bars · 7 down · best 1.50% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.688%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.58%)FINAL-3.58%MAX DD-5.95%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9642 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9405, 1.0000]1.00000.9405break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -5.95% · significant0%-5.95%▼ TROUGH -5.95%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -5.95%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -5.95%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9642 (-3.58%) · max DD -5.95% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −9 (37% positive) · μ=-1.74 · σ=32.19MIXED EDGELAST 66.72 (+2.13σ vs μ)66.7233.360.00-33.36-66.72μ = -1.74-15.10-15.100.000.00-20.72-20.728.048.04-24.01-24.01-34.01-34.01-34.01-34.01-43.15-43.15-30.32-30.32-35.63-35.630.000.0011.7411.74-30.21-30.210.000.0033.9533.9533.9533.9545.6745.6733.9533.9566.7266.72v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 66.717 · range [-43.15, 66.72] · μ -1.745 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=101.1024 · σ=52.0319 · range [29.5973, 182.4500] · R²=0.297▼ FALLING -43.40%σ EXTREME 51.46%LAST 54.7083182.4500144.2368106.023667.810529.5973μ = 101.1024max 182.4500min 29.5973dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.30μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 54.71% · range [29.60%, 182.45%] · μ 101.10% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.220 · σ=0.253MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.589 (-1.46σ vs μ)0.5890.2950.000-0.295-0.589μ = -0.2200.1980.1980.2780.2780.2450.245-0.063-0.063-0.105-0.105-0.388-0.388-0.388-0.388-0.400-0.400-0.350-0.350-0.094-0.094-0.500-0.500-0.418-0.418-0.146-0.146-0.500-0.500-0.132-0.132-0.289-0.289-0.298-0.298-0.237-0.237-0.589-0.589v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.589 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
41.3375
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.0609
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8419
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.0877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2593
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8257
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0243
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.3370
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7361
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.897 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.20e-4 · top T=8.00h (15.5%) · top-3 cover 44.7%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)2.2e-41.7e-41.1e-45.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 7.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.25e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.23e-4 · 15.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.48e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.48e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.70e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.70e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.60e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 7.60e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-4 · 8.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.20e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.20e-4 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.70e-4 · 11.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 8.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.99e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.99e-4 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.1% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 15.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.437e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2830 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.5 d · σ/bar 0.129pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 8.90ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2194 · n = 2830✓ n = 2830
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.129pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.63pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move200d
8.90pp
σ × √4788.837280833333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2194
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
32.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.21pp · ES₉₅ 0.27pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2830
VaR 95%
0.21pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.27pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.3pp
peak 35.5¢ → trough 31.5¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
32.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.077
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+208
$100 wins $208
FractionalUK
2.08 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$207.69
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 32.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.910 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.910 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.62 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.57 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
20006732765674855733524007935991362439352594042415161039767275461950712817548
NO token ID
54533569528927082430133047556849600511985191158927477533124630301934489498530
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:09:44 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:09:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
983bb52eef0550ee109cb2e6fabb1d8b5df0592d3bbc9aafb4362e53d0fc3371 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,489HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.335000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
298.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.102
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.303
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.349895444.63bp0.3500002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3882611589.87bp0.4200009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.73627811978.45bp0.93000046FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.312967657.71bp0.3100003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1304046107.33bp0.07000024FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0609698180.02bp0.01000030PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,830 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
518.30%
σ per bar = 0.003915
Mean return (annualised)
-4591.63%
μ per bar = -0.000026
Sharpe (rf=0)
-8.86
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.27%
peak 0.35 → trough 0.32 over 49 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-benjamin-netanyahu-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON