POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
1.0¢
NO · live
99.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
13.24%
max drawdown
28.57%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.38%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.96%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.18
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.18
upside/downside
roll spread
1.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
1.0¢
NO · live
99.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0097 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0085, 0.0105] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ NORMAL 4.92%LAST 0.00950.01050.01000.00950.00900.0085μ = 0.0097max 0.0105min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 1.0%NO 99.0%NO99.0%99.00¢ · odds 1/1.01
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.081 / 1.00 bits (8%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
1.0%1.0¢100.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.0%99.0¢1.01×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=90 · μ=3.7 · σ=4.9 · CV=1.32BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140471115μ = 41550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 90bp moved · peak 15bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
1.00¢ (1.00%)
▼NO mid
99.00¢ (99.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$41.2k
≋liquidity $
$53.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0097 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.0085, 0.0105] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ NORMAL 4.92%LAST 0.00950.01050.01000.00950.00900.0085μ = 0.0097max 0.0105min 0.0085dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9903 · σ=0.0005 · range [0.9895, 0.9915] · R²=0.001▬ FLATσ LOW 0.05%LAST 0.99050.99150.99100.99050.99000.9895μ = 0.9903max 0.9915min 0.9895dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0006 · skew=-0.00 (symmetric) · kurt=0.07 (mesokurtic)14117404-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 28.6% peakbin -0.09pp · n=4 · 28.6% peak-0.06pp1-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.04pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.01pp140.01ppbin 0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak0.04pp20.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.06pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak10.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.09pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak10.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.11pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak10.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.14pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.27 · kurt=0.33 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.00)
μ MEAN0.97¢95% CI: [0.95¢, 0.99¢]
σ STD DEV0.05ppσ² = 22.667×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.92%
med MEDIAN1.00¢Q₁ 0.95¢ · Q₃ 1.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.20pp · IQR 0.05pp (1.349σ→0.06pp)
min 0.85¢Q₁ 0.95¢med 1.00¢Q₃ 1.00¢max 1.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.004left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.643mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.67
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.28
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.20
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.389within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.139lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.551persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.114fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.551
H = 0.551PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.389k=2-0.139k=3+0.167k=4-0.222k=5+0.0000+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.11)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.39 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.49high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.11)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682713
SLUGwill-itamar-ben-…er-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (99¢)
PRIMARY · YES1.00¢implied prob 1.00% · decimal odds 100.00×
COUNTER · NO99.00¢implied prob 99.00% · decimal odds 1.01×
1.00¢
99.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME41.22k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY53.51k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (99¢)|primary − counter| = 0.980 · entropy 0.081 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 1.0%NO 99.0%YES p̂1.0%H = 0.081 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES100.00×(1¢)NO1.01×(99¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.081 bits (8% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
08hrs
50min
199.37 days·θ = 0.233 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 1.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.0%)
current: $0.0100 · expected return per side: $0.99 on YES hit · $0.01 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.05% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.233 pp/day
now199.37d left
0.233 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.53d left
0.269 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.68d left
0.330 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.84d left
0.466 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.94d left
0.738 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.15% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.04%MIXED · 5 UP / 5 DNBEST+0.15%4hWORST-0.10%13hTYPICAL |Δ|0.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.00%+0.10%-0.10%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.15% · 4h0.15% · 4h0.15%4h★ BEST0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h▼ WORST0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h0.05% · 15h0.05% · 15h0.05%15h-0.10% · 16h-0.10% · 16h-0.10%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h0.10% · 20h0.10% · 20h0.10%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.05% · 22h0.05% · 22h0.05%22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.05% · 24h-0.05% · 24h-0.05%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH21% up · 21% down · 58% flat
5 up bars · 5 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.038%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL-0.00%MAX DD-0.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.10%UNDERWATER12/25 (48%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0000 · peak 1.0010 · range [0.9990, 1.0010]1.00100.9990break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0010UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.20% · shallow0%-0.20%▼ TROUGH -0.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -0.20%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 4-4 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -0.10%bar 14-15 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER48% of session · 12/25 bars
final equity 1.0000 (-0.00%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 12/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −7 (37% positive) · μ=-0.26 · σ=15.85MIXED EDGELAST 0.00 (+0.02σ vs μ)38.2119.100.00-19.10-38.21μ = -0.269.749.749.749.749.749.7438.2138.210.000.000.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.210.000.0011.7411.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-9.74-20.72-20.7211.7411.7411.7411.740.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-38.21, 38.21] · μ -0.263 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=5.6724 · σ=2.6910 · range [0.0000, 7.4973] · R²=0.086▼ FALLING -11.73%σ EXTREME 47.44%LAST 6.61827.49735.62303.74871.87430.0000μ = 5.6724max 7.4973min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 6.62% · range [0.00%, 7.50%] · μ 5.67% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −16 (0% positive) · μ=-0.286 · σ=0.206MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.400 (-0.55σ vs μ)0.5220.2610.000-0.261-0.522μ = -0.286-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.509-0.509-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.500-0.500-0.230-0.230-0.301-0.301-0.327-0.327-0.301-0.301-0.015-0.015-0.522-0.522-0.363-0.363-0.456-0.456-0.475-0.475-0.400-0.400v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.400 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.8471
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6547
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0163
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.9602
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0021
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.6708
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5023
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.9593
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0501
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.404 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.18e-7 · top T=2.67h (35.0%) · top-3 cover 72.8%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)1.8e-61.3e-68.8e-74.4e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.01e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.01e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.70e-7 · 7.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.70e-7 · 7.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.92e-7 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.92e-7 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.75e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.75e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.56e-7 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.56e-7 · 17.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 7.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 7.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.75e-6 · 35.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.75e-6 · 35.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.08e-8 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.33e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.33e-8 · 1.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 20.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 35.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.021e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2916 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.4 d · σ/bar 0.009pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.59ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0099 · n = 2916✓ n = 2916
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.009pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
0.59pp
σ × √4784.837082222222
Terminal variancebinary
0.0099
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
1.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2916
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
28.6pp
peak 1.1¢ → trough 0.8¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
1.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
100.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+9900
$100 wins $9900
FractionalUK
99.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$9900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 1.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.081 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.081 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
6.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
97037271592384590668192904767730391938961253014413658633971882704234126806284
NO token ID
58392130842716399501622105353245054198549423559503164971149451200205491369251
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 15:09:46 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 15:09:46 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
258f69e081e56923bc47887a11074581934343d9ed4860d73c3cc461254f609d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,086.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.05HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.009500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3157.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.627
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.585
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.04340935694.07bp0.27500036FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.270298274524.55bp0.77000054FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.740206769163.80bp0.95000070FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0017778129.01bp0.0010008FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0011638775.79bp0.0010008PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011638775.79bp0.0010008PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,916 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1276.16%
σ per bar = 0.009639
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
28.57%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.01 over 1274 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-itamar-ben-gvir-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON