POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHO WILL SIGN U.S. X IRAN DEAL?
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
75.0¢
25.0¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-jd-vance-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950068 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
781.92%
max drawdown
19.75%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.71%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.22%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
19.75%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.79
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.79
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
593
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-jd-vance-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950068/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
75.0¢
NO · live
25.0¢
25 ticks · last 82.00¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.811 / 1.00 bits (81%) · high uncertainty
YES75.0%75.0¢1.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO25.0%25.0¢4.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 12900bp moved · peak 2500bp · n=24 ticks
112ms
75.00¢ (75.00%)
25.00¢ (25.00%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$26.9k
$19.0k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 82.00¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 18.00¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.78)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.781right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.949mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.775STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
75.00¢
25.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.33×(75¢)NO4.00×(25¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.811 bits (81% of max) · high uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-08-01 03:59 UTC
46days
21hrs
50min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.7500 · expected return per side: $0.25 on YES hit · $0.75 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 58.914 pp/day
now46.91d left58.914 pp/day×1.00
−25%35.18d left68.028 pp/day×1.15
−50%23.45d left83.317 pp/day×1.41
−75%11.73d left117.828 pp/day×2.00
−90%4.69d left186.302 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
14 up bars · 5 down · best 19.50% · worst -25.00% · typical |Δ| 5.375%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.2054 (20.54%) · max DD -29.74% · time-under-water 19/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -5.812 · range [-41.31, 60.28] · μ 15.449 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 1255.94% · range [96.66%, 1436.82%] · μ 703.15% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest 0.010 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀**H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
12.5663
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0019
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
5.8650
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3192
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.8498
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3668
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.6299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1031
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6548
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0177
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.9377
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3484
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 25.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.888e-2
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (593 bars · effective 1753297 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 46.9 d · σ/bar 0.591pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 19.82ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1875 · n = 593✓ n = 593
μ per bar
-0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.591pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.89pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move47d
19.82pp
σ × √1125.8351213888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.1875
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
75.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.98pp · ES₉₅ 1.22pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 593
VaR 95%
0.98pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.22pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
19.7pp
peak 78.5¢ → trough 63.0¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
75.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-300
risk $300 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$33.33
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.811 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.811 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.42 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.00 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
62613421667552080625966328383274237436600240515540435303530314342141740155222- NO token ID
11358041700603020527142609109914744394176136134933179709138248741835293684400- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-15 06:08:53 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 112ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-15 06:08:53 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
450d3bfba6ebf8ce6d603e48d7553c123478821e8ba223d22a3cb6e18093ef85· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.820000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
243.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.978
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.010
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-jd-vance-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950068/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.920172 | 1221.61bp | 0.990000 | 15 | PARTIAL |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.920172 | 1221.61bp | 0.990000 | 15 | PARTIAL |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.920172 | 1221.61bp | 0.990000 | 15 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.697667 | 1491.87bp | 0.640000 | 11 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.334070 | 5925.97bp | 0.210000 | 38 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.163171 | 8010.11bp | 0.010000 | 49 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 593 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
1113.21%
σ per bar = 0.008407
Mean return (annualised)
-13508.24%
μ per bar = -0.000077
Sharpe (rf=0)
-12.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
19.75%
peak 0.79 → trough 0.63 over 334 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-jd-vance-sign-a-uptspt-x-iran-deal-by-july-31-20260611235950068/risk · same metrics, JSON