POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IEM COLOGNE MAJOR 2026 WINNER

Will MOUZ win IEM Cologne Major 2026?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-mouz-win-iem-cologne-major-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -94.74%
realized vol (ann.)
36.50%
max drawdown
96.77%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
32.77%
RMS drawdown
pain index
15.90%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
96.77%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.58
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.58
upside/downside
roll spread
8.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-94.74%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -94.74%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-mouz-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0087 · σ=0.0028 · range [0.0005, 0.0125] · R²=0.193▼ FALLING -96.00%σ EXTREME 32.31%LAST 0.00050.01250.00950.00650.00350.0005μ = 0.0087max 0.0125min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=210 · μ=8.7 · σ=14.5 · CV=1.66BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=21015304560μ = 96050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 210bp moved · peak 60bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$88.0k
≋liquidity $
$274.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0087 · σ=0.0028 · range [0.0005, 0.0125] · R²=0.193▼ FALLING -96.00%σ EXTREME 32.31%LAST 0.00050.01250.00950.00650.00350.0005μ = 0.0087max 0.0125min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9913 · σ=0.0028 · range [0.9875, 0.9995] · R²=0.193▲ RISING +1.22%σ LOW 0.28%LAST 0.99950.99950.99650.99350.99050.9875μ = 0.9913max 0.9995min 0.9875dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.19μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0005 · σ=0.0015 · skew=-1.98 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.26 (leptokurtic (fat tails))975201-0.57ppbin -0.57pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.57pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak-0.49pp-0.43pp2-0.35ppbin -0.35pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.35pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-0.28pp-0.21pp1-0.14ppbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.14pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak4-0.07ppbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin -0.07pp · n=4 · 44.4% peak9-0.00ppbin -0.00pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin -0.00pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak70.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakbin 0.07pp · n=7 · 77.8% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.14 · kurt=4.05 · near 8 / mid 14 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.85 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.11)
μ MEAN0.87¢95% CI: [0.76¢, 0.98¢]
σ STD DEV0.28ppσ² = 0.078 · CV = 32.31%
med MEDIAN0.90¢Q₁ 0.85¢ · Q₃ 1.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.20pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.38pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.85¢med 0.90¢Q₃ 1.00¢max 1.25¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.738left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.106leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.52
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.29
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.393within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.061lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.969strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.344significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.969
H = 0.969STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.393k=2+0.061k=3-0.098k=4-0.066k=5-0.0860+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.34)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.34)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1892310
SLUGwill-mouz-win-iem-cologne-major-2026
CATEGORYIEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME88.04k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY274.92k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
6days
07hrs
48min
6.33 days·θ = 1.371 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)
current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.28% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.371 pp/day
now6.33d left
1.371 pp/day×1.00
−25%4.74d left
1.583 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.16d left
1.938 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.58d left
2.741 pp/day×2.00
−90%15.18h left
4.334 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.10% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.09%BEARISH SESSION -1.20%BEST+0.10%17hWORST-0.60%23hTYPICAL |Δ|0.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.10% · Σ -0.80%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.20%+0.00%-1.20%-0.05% · 1h-0.05% · 1h-0.05%1h-0.35% · 2h-0.35% · 2h-0.35%2h-0.05% · 3h-0.05% · 3h-0.05%3h0.05% · 4h0.05% · 4h0.05%4h0.05% · 5h0.05% · 5h0.05%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.05% · 9h0.05% · 9h0.05%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.10% · 16h0.10% · 16h0.10%16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h★ BEST0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.05% · 19h0.05% · 19h0.05%19h0.05% · 20h0.05% · 20h0.05%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h-0.35% · 22h-0.35% · 22h-0.35%22h-0.60% · 23h-0.60% · 23h-0.60%23h▼ WORST0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+-0.05%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 33% down · 38% flat
7 up bars · 8 down · best 0.10% · worst -0.60% · typical |Δ| 0.087%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-1.20%)FINAL-1.20%MAX DD-1.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9880 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9880, 1.0000]1.00000.9880break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.20% · moderate0%-1.20%▼ TROUGH -1.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -1.20%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9880 (-1.20%) · max DD -1.20% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −8 (42% positive) · μ=4.68 · σ=45.43MIXED EDGELAST -59.53 (-1.41σ vs μ)104.6452.320.00-52.32-104.64μ = 4.68-36.47-36.47-30.86-30.860.000.0038.2138.2120.7220.720.000.00-20.72-20.72-20.72-20.720.000.00-38.21-38.2115.8715.8738.2138.2160.4260.4279.3379.33104.64104.6425.0125.01-27.48-27.48-59.53-59.53-59.53-59.53v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -59.529 · range [-59.53, 104.64] · μ 4.679 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.0163 · σ=7.1383 · range [1.9105, 24.5259] · R²=0.183▲ RISING +75.02%σ EXTREME 89.05%LAST 24.525924.525918.872113.21827.56431.9105μ = 8.0163max 24.5259min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 24.53% · range [1.91%, 24.53%] · μ 8.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=-0.019 · σ=0.268CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.159 (+0.66σ vs μ)0.5000.2500.000-0.250-0.500μ = -0.0190.1260.1260.1520.152-0.000-0.000-0.033-0.033-0.363-0.363-0.500-0.500-0.363-0.363-0.363-0.3630.0000.000-0.233-0.2330.0290.0290.3670.3670.1670.167-0.006-0.006-0.250-0.250-0.014-0.0140.2930.2930.4750.4750.1590.159v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.159 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
49.5380
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9718
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4200
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.1933
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9333
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.7898
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4297
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2638
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2453
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.6247
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1042
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.494 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.54e-6 · top T=24.00h (24.4%) · top-3 cover 61.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.4e-65.6e-63.7e-61.9e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.44e-6 · 24.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.44e-6 · 24.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.17e-6 · 23.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.17e-6 · 23.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.67e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.15e-6 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.15e-6 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 13.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.17e-6 · 13.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.19e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.19e-6 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.50e-6 · 4.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.67e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.67e-6 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.34e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.34e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.42e-7 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.42e-7 · 2.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.85e-34 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.85e-34 · 0.0% energy50% by T=8.0h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 24.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.050e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3833 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 6.3 d · σ/bar 0.020pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.25ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 3833✓ n = 3833
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.020pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move6d
0.25pp
σ × √151.8105283333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3833
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
96.8pp
peak 1.6¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
60816540925838398823604933030868021842020563888589176586708262623681281754133
NO token ID
2720149227951580922968248236441495291211331445597390416639180477200365753769
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:11:22 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:11:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
1a2cf3b20eb9d4e9bc053d844354479fecf5c7ab1156e4dd05dad944cc52c129 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.5¢HL PREDSpain89.7¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?1¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,061.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,663.85HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.37

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in IEM Cologne Major 2026 Winner

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-mouz-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,833 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
6724.13%
σ per bar = 0.050787
Mean return (annualised)
-134690.25%
μ per bar = -0.000768
Sharpe (rf=0)
-20.03
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
96.77%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.00 over 595 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-mouz-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON