POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
5.1¢
NO · live
95.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739 · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.68%
max drawdown
1.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.26%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
5.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
5.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
5.1¢
NO · live
95.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0492 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0485, 0.0505] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +2.06%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.04950.05050.05000.04950.04900.0485μ = 0.0492max 0.0505min 0.0485dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 4.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 5.1%NO 95.0%NO95.0%94.95¢ · odds 1/1.05
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.289 / 1.00 bits (29%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
5.1%5.1¢19.80×▬ +0.00pp
NO
95.0%95.0¢1.05×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=100 · μ=4.2 · σ=5.8 · CV=1.40BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=905101520μ = 42050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 100bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11.1s
▲YES mid
5.05¢ (5.05%)
▼NO mid
94.95¢ (94.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$1.7M
≋liquidity $
$2.2M
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0492 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.0485, 0.0505] · R²=0.002▲ RISING +2.06%σ NORMAL 1.58%LAST 0.04950.05050.05000.04950.04900.0485μ = 0.0492max 0.0505min 0.0485dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 4.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9508 · σ=0.0008 · range [0.9495, 0.9515] · R²=0.002▼ FALLING -0.11%σ LOW 0.08%LAST 0.95050.95150.95100.95050.95000.9495μ = 0.9508max 0.9515min 0.9495dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 95.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0007 · skew=1.00 (right-skewed) · kurt=0.94 (mesokurtic)14117403-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin -0.09pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak3-0.06ppbin -0.06pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin -0.06pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak-0.03pp140.00ppbin 0.00pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin 0.00pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak0.04pp0.07pp20.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 0.10pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak0.13pp10.16ppbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.16pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak10.19ppbin 0.19pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.19pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.01 · kurt=1.15 · near 11 / mid 13 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.92 intercept=-0.00RIGHT-SKEWED · HEAVY POSITIVE TAILMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.39)
μ MEAN4.92¢95% CI: [4.89¢, 4.95¢]
σ STD DEV0.08ppσ² = 60.583×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.58%
med MEDIAN4.95¢Q₁ 4.85¢ · Q₃ 4.95¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.20pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.10pp)
min 4.85¢Q₁ 4.85¢med 4.95¢Q₃ 4.95¢max 5.05¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.425approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.393platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.36
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.05
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.255within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.004lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.356strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.209fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.356
H = 1.356STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.255k=2-0.004k=3-0.088k=4+0.085k=5-0.0770+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.21)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.21)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID558941
SLUGwill-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (95¢)
PRIMARY · YES5.05¢implied prob 5.05% · decimal odds 19.80×
COUNTER · NO94.95¢implied prob 94.95% · decimal odds 1.05×
5.05¢
94.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME1.74M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY2.15M USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (95¢)|primary − counter| = 0.899 · entropy 0.289 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 5.1%NO 95.0%YES p̂5.1%H = 0.289 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES19.80×(5¢)NO1.05×(95¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.289 bits (29% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
14hrs
11min
35.59 days·θ = 0.381 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 5.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 95.0%)
current: $0.0505 · expected return per side: $0.95 on YES hit · $0.05 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+17.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.08% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.381 pp/day
now35.59d left
0.381 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.69d left
0.440 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.80d left
0.539 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.90d left
0.763 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.56d left
1.206 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.04%MILD BULLISH +0.10%BEST+0.20%4hWORST-0.10%9hTYPICAL |Δ|0.04%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.10%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.10%+0.20%0.00%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.20% · 4h0.20% · 4h0.20%4h★ BEST0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.05% · 6h-0.05% · 6h-0.05%6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h0.10% · 8h0.10% · 8h0.10%8h-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h▼ WORST0.10% · 10h0.10% · 10h0.10%10h-0.10% · 11h-0.10% · 11h-0.10%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.15% · 20h0.15% · 20h0.15%20h-0.05% · 21h-0.05% · 21h-0.05%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH17% up · 25% down · 58% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.042%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsFLAT · NO MATERIAL MOVEMENTFINAL+0.10%MAX DD-0.20%RECOVERYONGOING · 19 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.20%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0010 · peak 1.0020 · range [1.0000, 1.0020]1.00201.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0020UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.20% · shallow0%-0.20%▼ TROUGH -0.20%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.20%bar 7-25 · 19 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.20%)RECOVERYongoing · 19 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0010 (0.10%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −7 (47% positive) · μ=0.24 · σ=27.71MIXED EDGELAST 22.83 (+0.82σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 0.2426.5826.5816.7616.7631.7331.7313.8613.860.000.00-16.76-16.76-23.70-23.70-15.87-15.87-38.21-38.21-20.72-20.72-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.210.000.000.000.0038.2138.2122.8322.8322.8322.8322.8322.8322.8322.83v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 22.835 · range [-60.42, 38.21] · μ 0.242 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=6.6487 · σ=2.8796 · range [0.0000, 10.5338] · R²=0.325▼ FALLING -22.40%σ EXTREME 43.31%LAST 6.393710.53387.90035.26692.63340.0000μ = 6.6487max 10.5338min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.33μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 6.39% · range [0.00%, 10.53%] · μ 6.65% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −16 (5% positive) · μ=-0.250 · σ=0.282MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.405 (-0.55σ vs μ)0.7370.3690.000-0.369-0.737μ = -0.250-0.145-0.145-0.006-0.006-0.144-0.144-0.202-0.202-0.643-0.643-0.737-0.737-0.526-0.526-0.489-0.489-0.433-0.433-0.127-0.1270.4170.417-0.033-0.0330.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.440-0.440-0.405-0.405-0.405-0.405-0.405-0.405v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.405 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
7.6085
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0223
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4063
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7926
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.5122
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1170
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.5454
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1223
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1155
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.9195
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3578
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.720 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.83e-7 · top T=2.00h (29.2%) · top-3 cover 54.3%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.0e-61.5e-61.0e-65.1e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.36e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.36e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.38e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.38e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-7 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 7.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-7 · 7.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.85e-7 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 6.85e-7 · 9.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.23e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.23e-7 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 15.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 15.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.97e-7 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.97e-7 · 4.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.62e-7 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 6.62e-7 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.39e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.39e-7 · 3.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 29.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.04e-6 · 29.2% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 29.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.000e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2562 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 35.6 d · σ/bar 0.004pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.11ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0479 · n = 2562✓ n = 2562
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.004pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move36d
0.11pp
σ × √854.1898375
Terminal variancebinary
0.0479
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
5.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2562
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
2.0pp
peak 5.0¢ → trough 4.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
5.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
19.802
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1880
$100 wins $1880
FractionalUK
18.80 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1880.20
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 5.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.289 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.289 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.31 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.07 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
55935183786009449883683540312350046975246300613283087403691731856990327029236
NO token ID
103711573894614472510743687764792452240919804104728889027222697502832804498206
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 09:48:25 UTC
Snapshot age
11.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 09:48:36 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
51a66e6c22c1abf20edcf6c22996adc0b9c0bb23d7c4e008fb1b4c89ec504b3e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?24¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,546HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,677HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.48

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.049500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
202.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.531
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.598
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.050000101.01bp0.0500001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.051602424.68bp0.0530004FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.0550481120.77bp0.09800035FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.049000101.01bp0.0490001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.049000101.01bp0.0490001FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0396311993.67bp0.03600014FILLED

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,562 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
99.12%
σ per bar = 0.000749
Mean return (annualised)
1368.89%
μ per bar = 0.000008
Sharpe (rf=0)
13.81
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.02%
peak 0.05 → trough 0.05 over 193 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-netherlands-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-739/risk · same metrics, JSON