POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
78.8¢
21.3¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 · fresh · feed 10s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
41.83%
max drawdown
1.38%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.93%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.82%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.38%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.41
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.41
upside/downside
roll spread
0.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
862
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
78.8¢
NO · live
21.3¢
25 ticks · last 78.75¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.746 / 1.00 bits (75%) · moderate uncertainty
YES78.8%78.8¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp
NO21.3%21.3¢4.71×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 500bp moved · peak 330bp · n=24 ticks
9.6s
78.75¢ (78.75%)
21.25¢ (21.25%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$49.1k
$85.3k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 78.75¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 21.25¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.20)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁1.205right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.249mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.22 + ADF rejected
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.035STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
78.75¢
21.25¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES1.27×(79¢)NO4.71×(21¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.746 bits (75% of max) · moderate uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
12hrs
53min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.7875 · expected return per side: $0.21 on YES hit · $0.79 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 4.904 pp/day
now199.54d left4.904 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.65d left5.662 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.77d left6.935 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.88d left9.807 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.95d left15.507 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
3 up bars · 3 down · best 3.30% · worst -0.70% · typical |Δ| 0.208%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0186 (1.86%) · max DD -1.05% · time-under-water 8/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 24.510 · range [-38.21, 32.57] · μ 2.046 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 137.00% · range [0.00%, 137.23%] · μ 45.31% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.206 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
496.9193
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.4935
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6268
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.5004
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5331
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
1.8257
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0679
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.5258
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0358
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
-0.6684
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5039
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 16.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.323e-4
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (862 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 199.5 d · σ/bar 0.032pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.19ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1673 · n = 862✓ n = 862
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.032pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.15pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move200d
2.19pp
σ × √4788.890030833333
Terminal variancebinary
0.1673
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
78.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 862
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.4pp
peak 79.8¢ → trough 78.6¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
78.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.270
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-371
risk $371 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.27 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$26.98
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.746 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.746 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.34 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.23 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
12403602920039269077597917340921667997547115084613238528792639013246536343316- NO token ID
21294592205022969346730955103773391901993330222644504059576935265667917187903- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 11:06:26 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 9.6s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 11:06:35 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
f4369f53c38d5e17f7e375651b288a471c8355efce3fbb087c0e5547083baa02· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$703
bid $187 · ask $516
Depth within 50bp
$2.95K
bid $666 · ask $2.29K
Mid price
0.787500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
12.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.670
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.530
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.788484 | 12.49bp | 0.789000 | 2 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.799885 | 157.27bp | 0.807000 | 16 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.926426 | 1764.14bp | 0.993000 | 82 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.783873 | 46.06bp | 0.781000 | 7 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.778255 | 117.39bp | 0.766000 | 22 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.011618 | 9852.47bp | 0.001000 | 271 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 862 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
52.77%
σ per bar = 0.000399
Mean return (annualised)
-2568.99%
μ per bar = -0.000015
Sharpe (rf=0)
-48.68
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.38%
peak 0.80 → trough 0.79 over 595 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-no-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON