POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
11.7¢
88.3¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912 · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
35.65%
max drawdown
8.84%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.84%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.85
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
11.7¢
NO · live
88.3¢
25 ticks · last 11.65¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.519 / 1.00 bits (52%) · moderate uncertainty
YES11.7%11.7¢8.58×▬ +0.00pp
NO88.3%88.3¢1.13×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 290bp moved · peak 100bp · n=24 ticks
741ms
11.65¢ (11.65%)
88.35¢ (88.35%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$2.0M
$6.1M
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 11.65¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 88.35¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.91)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.912right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.892mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.851STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
11.65¢
88.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES8.58×(12¢)NO1.13×(88¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.519 bits (52% of max) · moderate uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
14hrs
11min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.1165 · expected return per side: $0.88 on YES hit · $0.12 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.986 pp/day
now35.59d left2.986 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.69d left3.448 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.80d left4.223 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.90d left5.973 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.56d left9.444 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
5 up bars · 3 down · best 1.00% · worst -0.40% · typical |Δ| 0.121%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0110 (1.10%) · max DD -0.90% · time-under-water 5/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest -15.183 · range [-15.18, 75.04] · μ 15.487 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 28.85% · range [0.00%, 48.00%] · μ 16.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.268 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
87.0501
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
9.7204
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0826
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-0.7941
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8177
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
-1.4418
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1494
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6415
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0189
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
1.7929
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0730
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 22.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.700e-5
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2563 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 35.6 d · σ/bar 0.024pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.70ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1029 · n = 2563✓ n = 2563
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.024pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.12pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move36d
0.70pp
σ × √854.1876836111112
Terminal variancebinary
0.1029
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
11.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.04pp · ES₉₅ 0.05pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2563
VaR 95%
0.04pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.05pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
8.8pp
peak 12.4¢ → trough 11.3¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
11.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
8.584
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+758
$100 wins $758
FractionalUK
7.58 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$758.37
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.519 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.519 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.10 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.18 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
45415751658241142530386585138386640503488308219341470020075667342738719018629- NO token ID
31940783580344558651011323787577288681658737625185216525249046282994042503801- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 09:48:43 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 741ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 09:48:44 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
b19929e457ea1a07d76f8d9c3edf8efe1cfae07251a5e34cf650f6acef49db67· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$2.03K
bid $1.95K · ask $88
Mid price
0.116500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
85.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.383
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.099
ask-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.118751 | 193.20bp | 0.119000 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.122392 | 505.77bp | 0.125000 | 8 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.152242 | 3068.01bp | 0.200000 | 49 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.116000 | 42.92bp | 0.116000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.109942 | 562.88bp | 0.107000 | 10 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.106404 | 866.57bp | 0.106000 | 11 | FILLED |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 2,563 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
277.10%
σ per bar = 0.002093
Mean return (annualised)
6785.49%
μ per bar = 0.000039
Sharpe (rf=0)
24.49
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.84%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.11 over 712 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-portugal-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-912/risk · same metrics, JSON