POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Raphinha be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-raphinha-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 12s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
7.91%
max drawdown
66.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
38.69%
RMS drawdown
pain index
33.87%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
66.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
20.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
979
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-raphinha-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING11.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0061 · σ=0.0031 · range [0.0015, 0.0115] · R²=0.118▼ FALLING -57.14%σ EXTREME 50.98%LAST 0.00150.01150.00900.00650.00400.0015μ = 0.0061max 0.0115min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%NO99.9%99.85¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.016 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢666.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.9%99.9¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=200 · μ=8.3 · σ=13.9 · CV=1.67BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10014284155μ = 85550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 200bp moved · peak 55bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
11.8s
▲YES mid
0.15¢ (0.15%)
▼NO mid
99.85¢ (99.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$57.3k
≋liquidity $
$70.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0061 · σ=0.0031 · range [0.0015, 0.0115] · R²=0.118▼ FALLING -57.14%σ EXTREME 50.98%LAST 0.00150.01150.00900.00650.00400.0015μ = 0.0061max 0.0115min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9939 · σ=0.0031 · range [0.9885, 0.9985] · R²=0.118▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.31%LAST 0.99850.99850.99600.99350.99100.9885μ = 0.9939max 0.9985min 0.9885dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.12μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0015 · skew=-0.95 (left-skewed) · kurt=5.74 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -0.50pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-0.40pp-0.30pp-0.20pp2-0.10ppbin -0.10pp · n=2 · 13.3% peakbin -0.10pp · n=2 · 13.3% peak15-0.00ppbin -0.00pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.00pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak40.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 26.7% peakbin 0.10pp · n=4 · 26.7% peak10.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.20pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak0.30pp10.40ppbin 0.40pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 0.40pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.58 · kurt=5.61 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.59)
μ MEAN0.61¢95% CI: [0.49¢, 0.73¢]
σ STD DEV0.31ppσ² = 0.097 · CV = 50.98%
med MEDIAN0.55¢Q₁ 0.40¢ · Q₃ 0.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 1.00pp · IQR 0.35pp (1.349σ→0.42pp)
min 0.15¢Q₁ 0.40¢med 0.55¢Q₃ 0.75¢max 1.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.587right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.880mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.20
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.20
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.21
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.088within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.051lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.042strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.756fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.042
H = 1.042STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.088k=2+0.051k=3+0.024k=4+0.070k=5-0.3700+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]MARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCEMARGINAL @ 10% (|t|=1.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2069641
SLUGwill-raphinha-be…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.15¢implied prob 0.15% · decimal odds 666.67×
COUNTER · NO99.85¢implied prob 99.85% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.15¢
99.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME57.29k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY70.44k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.997 · entropy 0.016 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.016 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES666.67×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.016 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
29days
12hrs
11min
29.51 days·θ = 1.529 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.9%)
current: $0.0015 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+14.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.31% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.529 pp/day
now29.51d left
1.529 pp/day×1.00
−25%22.13d left
1.765 pp/day×1.15
−50%14.75d left
2.162 pp/day×1.41
−75%7.38d left
3.057 pp/day×2.00
−90%2.95d left
4.834 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.45% · worst -0.55% · typical |Δ| 0.08%MILD BEARISH -0.20%BEST+0.45%9hWORST-0.55%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.08%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.05% · Σ +0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.15%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.20%+0.80%-0.20%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.20% · 3h0.20% · 3h0.20%3h0.05% · 4h0.05% · 4h0.05%4h0.10% · 5h0.10% · 5h0.10%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-0.05% · 7h-0.05% · 7h-0.05%7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h0.45% · 9h0.45% · 9h0.45%9h★ BEST0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.55% · 14h-0.55% · 14h-0.55%14h▼ WORST-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h-0.05% · 16h-0.05% · 16h-0.05%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h-0.15% · 21h-0.15% · 21h-0.15%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.35%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH25% up · 38% down · 38% flat
6 up bars · 9 down · best 0.45% · worst -0.55% · typical |Δ| 0.083%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.20%)FINAL-0.20%MAX DD-1.00%RECOVERYONGOING · 11 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.80%UNDERWATER13/25 (52%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9980 · peak 1.0080 · range [0.9980, 1.0080]1.00800.9980break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0080UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.00% · shallow0%-1.00%▼ TROUGH -1.00%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.00%bar 15-25 · 11 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.10%bar 8-9 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -1.00%)RECOVERYongoing · 11 barsTIME UNDER WATER52% of session · 13/25 bars
final equity 0.9980 (-0.20%) · max DD -1.00% · time-under-water 13/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-15.18 · σ=58.25MIXED EDGELAST -73.99 (-1.01σ vs μ)120.8360.420.00-60.42-120.83μ = -15.1882.8982.8952.3252.3240.1940.1941.3041.3041.3041.3032.5932.5932.5932.5937.6637.66-2.45-2.45-37.84-37.84-46.56-46.56-46.56-46.56-51.10-51.10-51.10-51.10-120.83-120.83-85.44-85.44-66.72-66.72-66.72-66.72-73.99-73.99v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -73.993 · range [-120.83, 82.89] · μ -15.183 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=14.1757 · σ=7.6466 · range [2.4166, 29.8062] · R²=0.066▼ FALLING -15.98%σ EXTREME 53.94%LAST 5.919529.806222.958816.11149.26402.4166μ = 14.1757max 29.8062min 2.4166dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.07μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 5.92% · range [2.42%, 29.81%] · μ 14.18% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.170 · σ=0.178MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.250 (-0.45σ vs μ)0.5830.2920.000-0.292-0.583μ = -0.170-0.451-0.451-0.125-0.1250.2460.246-0.123-0.123-0.188-0.188-0.156-0.156-0.174-0.174-0.248-0.2480.0450.045-0.122-0.122-0.197-0.197-0.220-0.220-0.260-0.260-0.005-0.005-0.583-0.583-0.000-0.000-0.272-0.272-0.150-0.150-0.250-0.250v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.250 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
54.5235
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.9619
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4212
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9660
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7645
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-2.3521
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0187
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (4 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3111
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1628
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.8132
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4161
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.247 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.83e-6 · top T=2.00h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 54.6%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.0e-65.3e-63.5e-61.8e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.24e-6 · 15.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.24e-6 · 15.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.23e-6 · 3.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.52e-6 · 16.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.52e-6 · 16.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 6.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.26e-6 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.43e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.43e-7 · 1.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.02e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.02e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.98e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.98e-6 · 17.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.39e-6 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.02e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.02e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.72e-7 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 8.72e-7 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.44e-6 · 4.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 20.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.04e-6 · 20.7% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.394e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2896 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 29.5 d · σ/bar 0.032pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.86ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0015 · n = 2896✓ n = 2896
μ per bar
-0.001pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.032pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.16pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move30d
0.86pp
σ × √708.1892419444445
Terminal variancebinary
0.0015
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.05pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.001pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2896
VaR 95%
0.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
94.5pp
peak 2.8¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
666.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+66567
$100 wins $66567
FractionalUK
665.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$66566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.016 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.016 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
9.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
42876304695136160421777176870456118032814651190791177620203146361407368177813
NO token ID
37313362179743079946695435170303959464436325810595539506936115686063493849302
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:48:26 UTC
Snapshot age
11.8s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:48:38 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
041faff66777d1c18f3cc11627874725a4a9a5a260972a9f2fbb6a34d6fc4e27 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,729HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.15HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.6

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.001500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.990
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.815
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-raphinha-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.032745208300.60bp0.16400033FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2187251448163.73bp0.79900058FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7043634685751.82bp0.95900068FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,896 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3422.02%
σ per bar = 0.025849
Mean return (annualised)
-176092.23%
μ per bar = -0.001005
Sharpe (rf=0)
-51.46
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
94.55%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.00 over 2833 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-raphinha-be-the-top-goalscorer-at-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON