POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES · live
14.1¢
NO · live
86.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 9s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2.11%
max drawdown
0.35%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.18%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.35%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
981
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
14.1¢
NO · live
86.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1421 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.1405, 0.1470] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -4.42%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.14050.14700.14540.14370.14210.1405μ = 0.1421max 0.1470min 0.1405dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 14.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 14.1%NO 86.0%NO86.0%85.95¢ · odds 1/1.16
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.586 / 1.00 bits (59%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
14.1%14.1¢7.12×▬ +0.00pp
NO
86.0%86.0¢1.16×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=205 · μ=8.5 · σ=11.7 · CV=1.38BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6013253850μ = 95050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 205bp moved · peak 50bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.1s
▲YES mid
14.05¢ (14.05%)
▼NO mid
85.95¢ (85.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$41.7k
≋liquidity $
$263.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1421 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.1405, 0.1470] · R²=0.602▼ FALLING -4.42%σ NORMAL 1.03%LAST 0.14050.14700.14540.14370.14210.1405μ = 0.1421max 0.1470min 0.1405dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 14.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8579 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.8530, 0.8595] · R²=0.602▲ RISING +0.76%σ LOW 0.17%LAST 0.85950.85950.85790.85620.85460.8530μ = 0.8579max 0.8595min 0.8530dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 85.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0013 · skew=-1.12 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.49 (leptokurtic (fat tails))13107301-0.46ppbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin -0.46pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak-0.39pp-0.31pp-0.24pp2-0.16ppbin -0.16pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin -0.16pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak3-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=3 · 23.1% peakbin -0.09pp · n=3 · 23.1% peak13-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=13 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=13 · 100.0% peak10.06ppbin 0.06pp · n=1 · 7.7% peakbin 0.06pp · n=1 · 7.7% peak20.14ppbin 0.14pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.14pp · n=2 · 15.4% peak20.21ppbin 0.21pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakbin 0.21pp · n=2 · 15.4% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-1.19 · kurt=3.49 · near 12 / mid 11 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.94 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.74)
μ MEAN14.21¢95% CI: [14.15¢, 14.26¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.022 · CV = 1.03%
med MEDIAN14.15¢Q₁ 14.10¢ · Q₃ 14.25¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.65pp · IQR 0.15pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 14.05¢Q₁ 14.10¢med 14.15¢Q₃ 14.25¢max 14.70¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.635right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.740leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.38
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.32
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.43
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.558negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.219lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.735strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.893significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.735
H = 0.735STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.558k=2+0.219k=3-0.140k=4+0.116k=5+0.1210+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.56 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.89)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID601825
SLUGwill-renan-santo…ial-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (86¢)
PRIMARY · YES14.05¢implied prob 14.05% · decimal odds 7.12×
COUNTER · NO85.95¢implied prob 85.95% · decimal odds 1.16×
14.05¢
85.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME41.66k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY263.20k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (86¢)|primary − counter| = 0.719 · entropy 0.586 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 14.1%NO 86.0%YES p̂14.1%H = 0.586 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES7.12×(14¢)NO1.16×(86¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.586 bits (59% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
105days
12hrs
10min
105.51 days·θ = 0.719 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 14.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 85.9%)
current: $0.1405 · expected return per side: $0.86 on YES hit · $0.14 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+52.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.719 pp/day
now105.51d left
0.719 pp/day×1.00
−25%79.13d left
0.830 pp/day×1.15
−50%52.75d left
1.016 pp/day×1.41
−75%26.38d left
1.437 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.55d left
2.273 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.25% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.09%BEARISH SESSION -0.65%BEST+0.25%2hWORST-0.50%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.09%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.05% · Σ -0.35%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.03% · Σ -0.20%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.65%+0.00%-0.65%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h▼ WORST0.25% · 2h0.25% · 2h0.25%2h★ BEST-0.10% · 3h-0.10% · 3h-0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-0.10% · 5h-0.10% · 5h-0.10%5h-0.10% · 6h-0.10% · 6h-0.10%6h0.20% · 7h0.20% · 7h0.20%7h-0.20% · 8h-0.20% · 8h-0.20%8h0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h-0.05% · 10h-0.05% · 10h-0.05%10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.05% · 13h0.05% · 13h0.05%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.05% · 23h-0.05% · 23h-0.05%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH21% up · 38% down · 42% flat
5 up bars · 9 down · best 0.25% · worst -0.50% · typical |Δ| 0.085%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.65%)FINAL-0.65%MAX DD-0.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9935 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9935, 1.0000]1.00000.9935break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.65% · shallow0%-0.65%▼ TROUGH -0.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.65%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9935 (-0.65%) · max DD -0.65% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +2 / −15 (11% positive) · μ=-21.25 · σ=19.57UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -38.21 (-0.87σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -21.25-35.50-35.5014.5814.58-33.95-33.95-10.60-10.60-15.87-15.875.215.21-4.63-4.63-22.25-22.250.000.00-15.10-15.10-7.64-7.64-26.58-26.580.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.21v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -38.210 · range [-60.42, 14.58] · μ -21.252 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=9.1630 · σ=6.2615 · range [1.9105, 22.6214] · R²=0.873▼ FALLING -91.55%σ EXTREME 68.33%LAST 1.910522.621417.443712.26607.08821.9105μ = 9.1630max 22.6214min 1.9105dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.87μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1.91% · range [1.91%, 22.62%] · μ 9.16% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −18 (0% positive) · μ=-0.427 · σ=0.245MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.233 (+0.79σ vs μ)0.8070.4040.000-0.404-0.807μ = -0.427-0.492-0.492-0.218-0.218-0.553-0.553-0.679-0.679-0.695-0.695-0.807-0.807-0.637-0.637-0.638-0.638-0.615-0.615-0.677-0.677-0.601-0.601-0.242-0.2420.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.083-0.083-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS REJECT · data departs from every nominal assumption6 reject·0 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
28.0507
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
11.2794
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0457
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-4.9881
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.1798
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0293
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8678
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.5477
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0108
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.225 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.98e-6 · top T=2.18h (37.4%) · top-3 cover 71.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.9e-66.7e-64.4e-62.2e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.39e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.39e-7 · 2.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.50e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.50e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.28e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.28e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.07e-6 · 4.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.27e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.27e-7 · 1.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.34e-6 · 9.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.99e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.99e-6 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.48e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.48e-7 · 1.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-6 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.60e-6 · 6.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.86e-6 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.86e-6 · 24.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 37.4% energyperiod 2.2 · power 8.88e-6 · 37.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.04e-8 · 0.0% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.40h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 37.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.375e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 105.5 d · σ/bar 0.014pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.71ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1208 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.014pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move106d
0.71pp
σ × √2532.1800222222223
Terminal variancebinary
0.1208
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
14.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.02pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.02pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
11.1pp
peak 15.8¢ → trough 14.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
14.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
7.117
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+612
$100 wins $612
FractionalUK
6.12 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$611.74
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 14.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.586 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.586 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.83 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.22 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
93998891488819623915454849994768171534113749478841216025646247933473925258016
NO token ID
7565921021555775006041943394390068423142281108752994121417017072842379450830
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:49:02 UTC
Snapshot age
9.1s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:49:11 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3179042329e3b15fb7acd98aa6ca65a4113a31714a4e3783e429e84e56be1d32 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,724HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.18HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$543
bid $209 · ask $333
Mid price
0.140500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
71.2bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.896
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.326
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.143169190.00bp0.1450005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1600461391.17bp0.17400033FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.36007515628.13bp0.809000118FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.13917494.35bp0.1380003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1185111565.05bp0.09000051FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0115749176.23bp0.00100097PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
125.72%
σ per bar = 0.000950
Mean return (annualised)
-3443.44%
μ per bar = -0.000020
Sharpe (rf=0)
-27.39
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
11.08%
peak 0.16 → trough 0.14 over 4676 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-renan-santos-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON