POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election · fresh · feed 10s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
8.97%
max drawdown
6.82%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
4.71%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.80%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.82%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
981
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
97.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0216 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0195, 0.0235] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -8.51%σ HIGH 6.94%LAST 0.02150.02350.02250.02150.02050.0195μ = 0.0216max 0.0235min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%NO97.9%97.85¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.150 / 1.00 bits (15%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢46.51×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.9%97.9¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=110 · μ=4.6 · σ=6.1 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1705101520μ = 52050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 110bp moved · peak 20bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9.5s
▲YES mid
2.15¢ (2.15%)
▼NO mid
97.85¢ (97.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$69.8k
≋liquidity $
$292.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0216 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.0195, 0.0235] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -8.51%σ HIGH 6.94%LAST 0.02150.02350.02250.02150.02050.0195μ = 0.0216max 0.0235min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9784 · σ=0.0015 · range [0.9765, 0.9805] · R²=0.340▲ RISING +0.20%σ LOW 0.15%LAST 0.97850.98050.97950.97850.97750.9765μ = 0.9784max 0.9805min 0.9765dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0001 · σ=0.0007 · skew=-0.11 (symmetric) · kurt=0.11 (mesokurtic)14117401-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak-0.15pp4-0.11ppbin -0.11pp · n=4 · 28.6% peakbin -0.11pp · n=4 · 28.6% peak-0.08pp1-0.04ppbin -0.04pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -0.04pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak14-0.01ppbin -0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -0.01pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak0.03pp0.06pp30.10ppbin 0.10pp · n=3 · 21.4% peakbin 0.10pp · n=3 · 21.4% peak10.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 0.13pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.24 · kurt=0.61 · near 12 / mid 12 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.49)
μ MEAN2.16¢95% CI: [2.10¢, 2.22¢]
σ STD DEV0.15ppσ² = 0.022 · CV = 6.94%
med MEDIAN2.15¢Q₁ 2.05¢ · Q₃ 2.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.40pp · IQR 0.30pp (1.349σ→0.20pp)
min 1.95¢Q₁ 2.05¢med 2.15¢Q₃ 2.35¢max 2.35¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.117approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.492platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.07
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.67
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.67
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.001within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.099lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.188strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.442significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.188
H = 1.188STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.001k=2+0.099k=3+0.098k=4-0.096k=5-0.0530+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID601827
SLUGwill-ronaldo-cai…ial-election
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.15¢implied prob 2.15% · decimal odds 46.51×
COUNTER · NO97.85¢implied prob 97.85% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.15¢
97.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME69.80k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY292.91k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.957 · entropy 0.150 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 97.9%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.150 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES46.51×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.150 bits (15% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-10-04 00:00 UTC
105days
12hrs
10min
105.51 days·θ = 0.735 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.9%)
current: $0.0215 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+52.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.15% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.735 pp/day
now105.51d left
0.735 pp/day×1.00
−25%79.13d left
0.849 pp/day×1.15
−50%52.75d left
1.039 pp/day×1.41
−75%26.38d left
1.470 pp/day×2.00
−90%10.55d left
2.324 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.15% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.05%MILD BEARISH -0.20%BEST+0.15%17hWORST-0.20%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.20%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.20%+0.00%-0.40%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.20% · 8h-0.20% · 8h-0.20%8h▼ WORST-0.10% · 9h-0.10% · 9h-0.10%9h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.10% · 14h0.10% · 14h0.10%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h★ BEST-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.10% · 21h0.10% · 21h0.10%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.10% · 24h0.10% · 24h0.10%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH17% up · 25% down · 58% flat
4 up bars · 6 down · best 0.15% · worst -0.20% · typical |Δ| 0.046%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.20%)FINAL-0.20%MAX DD-0.40%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9980 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9960, 1.0000]1.00000.9960break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.40% · shallow0%-0.40%▼ TROUGH -0.40%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.40%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.40%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.9980 (-0.20%) · max DD -0.40% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −8 (32% positive) · μ=-12.53 · σ=44.25UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.28σ vs μ)76.4238.210.00-38.21-76.42μ = -12.530.000.000.000.00-38.21-38.21-55.93-55.93-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-76.42-20.72-20.720.000.0038.2138.2158.6858.6841.4441.4441.4441.440.000.0016.7616.7616.7616.76-30.86-30.860.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-76.42, 58.68] · μ -12.532 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=6.5191 · σ=2.5462 · range [0.0000, 8.7132] · R²=0.276▬ FLATσ EXTREME 39.06%LAST 8.37148.71326.53494.35662.17830.0000μ = 6.5191max 8.7132min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 8.37% · range [0.00%, 8.71%] · μ 6.52% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −12 (21% positive) · μ=-0.130 · σ=0.277MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.500 (-1.33σ vs μ)0.5980.2990.000-0.299-0.598μ = -0.1300.0000.0000.0000.000-0.033-0.0330.2140.2140.1670.167-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.0330.3670.3670.2840.2840.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.267-0.267-0.598-0.598-0.422-0.422-0.214-0.214-0.410-0.410-0.391-0.391-0.370-0.370-0.500-0.500v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.500 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.3953
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4978
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.9431
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9650
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5752
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4975
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.1405
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8883
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4466
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0571
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.4275
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6690
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.130 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.71e-7 · top T=2.40h (22.0%) · top-3 cover 55.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.5e-61.1e-67.5e-73.8e-70.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 7.58e-7 · 11.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 7.58e-7 · 11.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-6 · 19.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.33e-6 · 19.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.39e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.39e-7 · 3.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.81e-7 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.41e-7 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.41e-7 · 5.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-7 · 5.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-7 · 5.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.00e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.00e-6 · 14.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.35e-7 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.86e-7 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.86e-7 · 5.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-6 · 22.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.51e-6 · 22.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.50e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.50e-7 · 2.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.75e-7 · 5.5% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=12.00h#3T=3.43hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 22.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.854e-6

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 105.5 d · σ/bar 0.007pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0210 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.007pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.04pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move106d
0.37pp
σ × √2532.1799219444442
Terminal variancebinary
0.0210
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.02pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.02pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
10.9pp
peak 2.3¢ → trough 2.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
46.512
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4551
$100 wins $4551
FractionalUK
45.51 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4551.16
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.150 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.150 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.54 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
36262307788727352725358528951052957737657822670589615830114396216160368496388
NO token ID
46647902352070183258066763519254338558701019805822306126128459427684955493048
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:49:02 UTC
Snapshot age
9.5s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:49:12 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c3c820f6e7accc45d6f8eac7a82a748ec6a37ac84199c5d07e7120460b8699bb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,724HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.18HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,728.5

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.021500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1395.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.854
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.756
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0294413693.50bp0.03200010FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.05944117646.77bp0.09500042FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.302159130539.10bp0.84900088FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0177941723.83bp0.0160005FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0032408492.86bp0.00100020PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0032408492.86bp0.00100020PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
457.01%
σ per bar = 0.003452
Mean return (annualised)
1669.71%
μ per bar = 0.000010
Sharpe (rf=0)
3.65
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
10.87%
peak 0.02 → trough 0.02 over 297 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-ronaldo-caiado-win-the-2026-brazilian-presidential-election/risk · same metrics, JSON