POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · TECH & BUSINESS

Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?

YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt0t-and-2pt5t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847121 · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
51.65%
max drawdown
1.94%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.48%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.94%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
987
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt0t-and-2pt5t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847121/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.5048 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.4950, 0.5150] · R²=0.176▼ FALLING -1.98%σ NORMAL 1.60%LAST 0.49500.51500.51000.50500.50000.4950μ = 0.5048max 0.5150min 0.4950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 49.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES50.5%50.50¢ · odds 1/1.98
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
50.5%50.5¢1.98×▬ +0.00pp
NO
49.5%49.5¢2.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=700 · μ=29.2 · σ=58.8 · CV=2.02BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=15050100150200μ = 2920050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 700bp moved · peak 200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.4s
▲YES mid
50.50¢ (50.50%)
▼NO mid
49.50¢ (49.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$27.0k
≋liquidity $
$17.9k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5048 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.4950, 0.5150] · R²=0.176▼ FALLING -1.98%σ NORMAL 1.60%LAST 0.49500.51500.51000.50500.50000.4950μ = 0.5048max 0.5150min 0.4950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 49.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4952 · σ=0.0081 · range [0.4850, 0.5050] · R²=0.176▲ RISING +2.02%σ NORMAL 1.64%LAST 0.50500.50500.50000.49500.49000.4850μ = 0.4952max 0.5050min 0.4850dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.18μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 50.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0010 · σ=0.0062 · skew=-0.63 (left-skewed) · kurt=3.43 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-1.80ppbin -1.80pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -1.80pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-1.40pp1-1.00ppbin -1.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -1.00pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak2-0.60ppbin -0.60pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin -0.60pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak-0.20pp170.20ppbin 0.20pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin 0.20pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak20.60ppbin 0.60pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 0.60pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak1.00pp1.40pp11.80ppbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 1.80pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.04 · kurt=5.03 · near 6 / mid 16 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.83 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.59)
μ MEAN50.48¢95% CI: [50.16¢, 50.80¢]
σ STD DEV0.81ppσ² = 0.656 · CV = 1.60%
med MEDIAN50.50¢Q₁ 49.50¢ · Q₃ 51.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.00pp · IQR 2.00pp (1.349σ→1.09pp)
min 49.50¢Q₁ 49.50¢med 50.50¢Q₃ 51.50¢max 51.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.005approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.591platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.02
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.55
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.47
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.069within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.031lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.001strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.216significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.001
H = 1.001STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.069k=2+0.031k=3-0.095k=4+0.003k=5+0.0030+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.22)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.22)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2482976
SLUGwill-spacexs-mar…606222847121
CATEGORYTech & Business
TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50
PRIMARY · YES50.50¢implied prob 50.50% · decimal odds 1.98×
COUNTER · NO49.50¢implied prob 49.50% · decimal odds 2.02×
50.50¢
49.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME26.96k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY17.88k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.010 · entropy 1.000 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES p̂50.5%H = 1.000 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.98×(51¢)NO2.02×(50¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 1.000 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
10days
16hrs
08min
10.67 days·θ = 3.967 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 50.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 49.5%)
current: $0.5050 · expected return per side: $0.49 on YES hit · $0.51 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+5.3dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.81% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.967 pp/day
now10.67d left
3.967 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.00d left
4.581 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.34d left
5.611 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.67d left
7.935 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.07d left
12.546 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.29%BEARISH SESSION -1.00%BEST+2.00%9hWORST-2.00%24hTYPICAL |Δ|0.29%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.14% · Σ -1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.00%+1.00%-1.00%-0.50% · 1h-0.50% · 1h-0.50%1h-0.50% · 2h-0.50% · 2h-0.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h2.00% · 9h2.00% · 9h2.00%9h★ BEST0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-1.00% · 15h-1.00% · 15h-1.00%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.50% · 23h0.50% · 23h0.50%23h-2.00% · 24h-2.00% · 24h-2.00%24h▼ WORSTTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH13% up · 17% down · 71% flat
3 up bars · 4 down · best 2.00% · worst -2.00% · typical |Δ| 0.292%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.04%)FINAL-1.04%MAX DD-2.01%RECOVERYONGOING · 10 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.98%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9896 · peak 1.0098 · range [0.9896, 1.0098]1.00980.9896break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0098UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.01% · moderate0%-2.01%▼ TROUGH -2.01%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.01%bar 16-25 · 10 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 2-9 · 8 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.01%)RECOVERYongoing · 10 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 0.9896 (-1.04%) · max DD -2.01% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −9 (47% positive) · μ=1.13 · σ=40.45MIXED EDGELAST -16.76 (-0.44σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = 1.13-60.42-60.42-38.21-38.210.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.2138.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.2138.2138.2138.2138.2160.4260.42-16.76-16.76v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.756 · range [-60.42, 60.42] · μ 1.129 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=46.3452 · σ=26.7139 · range [0.0000, 87.1321] · R²=0.004▲ RISING +260.56%σ EXTREME 57.64%LAST 87.132187.132165.349143.566021.78300.0000μ = 46.3452max 87.1321min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.00μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 87.13% · range [0.00%, 87.13%] · μ 46.35% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −17 (5% positive) · μ=-0.127 · σ=0.169MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.199 (-0.42σ vs μ)0.4170.2080.000-0.208-0.417μ = -0.1270.4170.417-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.333-0.333-0.199-0.199v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.199 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
43.0554
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.4243
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9928
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.8663
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3589
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4851
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6276
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.3172
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1521
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8987
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3688
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.727 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.43e-5 · top T=12.00h (19.4%) · top-3 cover 45.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.0e-47.7e-55.1e-52.6e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.90e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.03e-4 · 19.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.26e-5 · 2.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.10e-5 · 9.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.32e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.32e-5 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.54e-5 · 6.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.11e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.11e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.32e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.32e-5 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.41e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.41e-5 · 13.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.09e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.09e-5 · 5.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 12.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.67e-5 · 12.5% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=12.00h#2T=2.40h#3T=2.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 12.00h (freq 0.083) · concentrates 19.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.313e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (1138 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 10.7 d · σ/bar 0.658pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 10.53ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2500 · n = 1138✓ n = 1138
μ per bar
+0.028pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.658pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
3.22pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move11d
10.53pp
σ × √256.1343033333333
Terminal variancebinary
0.2500
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
50.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.05pp · ES₉₅ 1.33pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.028pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 1138
VaR 95%
1.05pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.33pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
34.8pp
peak 34.5¢ → trough 22.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
50.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.980
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-102
risk $102 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.98 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$98.02
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 50.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
1.000 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
1.000 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.99 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
9757267454959149807930688299304027320729668267380017844968530255891762495433
NO token ID
50871866223713144308750550015304598086282278239815473466187919228188695762652
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 11:50:50 UTC
Snapshot age
5.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 11:50:56 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
aae810988f78c4569f887c478fdda6e2bf26c1079a099e9a40c12fbde094d94f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Tech & Business

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.495000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
202.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.212
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.423
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt0t-and-2pt5t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847121/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.508451271.74bp0.5200003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.5555811223.86bp0.62000013FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8120286404.61bp0.99000038PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.486865164.35bp0.4800002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1773486417.22bp0.01000037PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1773486417.22bp0.01000037PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 1,138 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2685.80%
σ per bar = 0.020288
Mean return (annualised)
150672.56%
μ per bar = 0.000860
Sharpe (rf=0)
56.10
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
34.78%
peak 0.34 → trough 0.23 over 5 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-market-cap-be-between-2pt0t-and-2pt5t-at-market-close-on-last-trading-day-of-ipo-month-20260606222847121/risk · same metrics, JSON