POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · TECH & BUSINESS

Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.5T by June 30?

YES · live
2.8¢
NO · live
97.2¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-spacexs-valuation-hit-high-3pt5t-by-june-30 · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
39.49%
max drawdown
12.50%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
8.41%
RMS drawdown
pain index
6.44%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
12.50%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
5.57
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
5.57
upside/downside
roll spread
9.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-spacexs-valuation-hit-high-3pt5t-by-june-30/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.8¢
NO · live
97.2¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0255 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.0105, 0.0415] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -27.27%σ EXTREME 47.26%LAST 0.02800.04150.03380.02600.01830.0105μ = 0.0255max 0.0415min 0.0105dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 2.80¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.8%NO 97.2%NO97.2%97.20¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.184 / 1.00 bits (18%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.8%2.8¢35.71×▬ +0.00pp
NO
97.2%97.2¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=645 · μ=26.9 · σ=61.4 · CV=2.29BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10071143214285μ = 2728550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 645bp moved · peak 285bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.9s
▲YES mid
2.80¢ (2.80%)
▼NO mid
97.20¢ (97.20%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$34.4k
≋liquidity $
$31.6k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0255 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.0105, 0.0415] · R²=0.340▼ FALLING -27.27%σ EXTREME 47.26%LAST 0.02800.04150.03380.02600.01830.0105μ = 0.0255max 0.0415min 0.0105dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.80¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9745 · σ=0.0121 · range [0.9585, 0.9895] · R²=0.340▲ RISING +1.09%σ NORMAL 1.24%LAST 0.97200.98950.98180.97400.96630.9585μ = 0.9745max 0.9895min 0.9585dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0013 · σ=0.0061 · skew=-2.53 (left-skewed) · kurt=9.92 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-2.65ppbin -2.65pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -2.65pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-2.24pp-1.83pp-1.42pp-1.01pp-0.60pp17-0.19ppbin -0.19pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin -0.19pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak40.22ppbin 0.22pp · n=4 · 23.5% peakbin 0.22pp · n=4 · 23.5% peak10.64ppbin 0.64pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 0.64pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak11.05ppbin 1.05pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 1.05pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.89 · kurt=11.52 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.75 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-2.23σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.76)
μ MEAN2.55¢95% CI: [2.08¢, 3.02¢]
σ STD DEV1.21ppσ² = 1.452 · CV = 47.26%
med MEDIAN2.65¢Q₁ 1.30¢ · Q₃ 3.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.10pp · IQR 2.50pp (1.349σ→1.63pp)
min 1.05¢Q₁ 1.30¢med 2.65¢Q₃ 3.80¢max 4.15¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.035approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.755platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.08
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.65
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.57
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.015within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.132lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.859strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.439significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.859
H = 0.859STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.015k=2-0.132k=3-0.009k=4+0.093k=5+0.0330+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.73very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2298908
SLUGwill-spacexs-valuation-hit-high-3pt5t-by-june-30
CATEGORYTech & Business
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.80¢implied prob 2.80% · decimal odds 35.71×
COUNTER · NO97.20¢implied prob 97.20% · decimal odds 1.03×
2.80¢
97.20¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME34.35k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY31.64k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.944 · entropy 0.184 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.8%NO 97.2%YES p̂2.8%H = 0.184 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES35.71×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.184 bits (18% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-01 12:00 UTC
17days
00hrs
52min
17.04 days·θ = 5.904 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.8%)
NO →$0.00(P = 97.2%)
current: $0.0280 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.5dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.21% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.904 pp/day
now17.04d left
5.904 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.78d left
6.817 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.52d left
8.349 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.26d left
11.808 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.70d left
18.669 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -2.85% · typical |Δ| 0.27%BEARISH SESSION -1.05%BEST+1.25%19hWORST-2.85%10hTYPICAL |Δ|0.27%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.05%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.34% · Σ -2.70%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.22% · Σ +1.75%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.05%+0.30%-2.80%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h-0.10% · 2h-0.10% · 2h-0.10%2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h-0.05% · 4h-0.05% · 4h-0.05%4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.35% · 6h-0.35% · 6h-0.35%6h0.30% · 7h0.30% · 7h0.30%7h0.40% · 8h0.40% · 8h0.40%8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-2.85% · 10h-2.85% · 10h-2.85%10h▼ WORST0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-0.10% · 13h-0.10% · 13h-0.10%13h0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h-0.15% · 15h-0.15% · 15h-0.15%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.25% · 19h1.25% · 19h1.25%19h★ BEST-0.15% · 20h-0.15% · 20h-0.15%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h0.15% · 23h0.15% · 23h0.15%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+1.75%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 1BREADTH25% up · 29% down · 46% flat
6 up bars · 7 down · best 1.25% · worst -2.85% · typical |Δ| 0.269%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.10%)FINAL-1.10%MAX DD-3.09%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.30%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9890 · peak 1.0030 · range [0.9720, 1.0030]1.00300.9720break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0030UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.09% · moderate0%-3.09%▼ TROUGH -3.09%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.09%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.40%bar 3-8 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.09%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 0.9890 (-1.10%) · max DD -3.09% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-7.60 · σ=40.59MIXED EDGELAST 52.59 (+1.48σ vs μ)58.6829.340.00-29.34-58.68μ = -7.60-40.56-40.56-7.22-7.2223.3123.3117.4417.44-31.94-31.94-31.94-31.94-27.20-27.20-33.13-33.13-39.81-39.81-42.24-42.24-58.68-58.68-58.68-58.68-58.68-58.6832.6232.6227.4527.4532.6232.6247.0347.0352.5952.5952.5952.59v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 52.593 · range [-58.68, 52.59] · μ -7.601 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=56.3659 · σ=41.8108 · range [6.2201, 115.4073] · R²=0.008▲ RISING +237.40%σ EXTREME 74.18%LAST 48.5808115.407388.110560.813733.51696.2201μ = 56.3659max 115.4073min 6.2201dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 48.58% · range [6.22%, 115.41%] · μ 56.37% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.245 · σ=0.196MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.255 (-0.05σ vs μ)0.5500.2750.000-0.275-0.550μ = -0.245-0.192-0.192-0.537-0.5370.0340.034-0.014-0.014-0.002-0.002-0.141-0.141-0.117-0.117-0.193-0.193-0.253-0.253-0.049-0.049-0.550-0.550-0.550-0.550-0.362-0.362-0.004-0.004-0.282-0.282-0.306-0.306-0.392-0.392-0.493-0.493-0.255-0.255v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.255 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
252.4070
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
0.8103
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9742
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5706
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4997
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3140
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7535
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (8 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4879
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0444
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0859
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9315
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.974 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.62e-5 · top T=3.43h (14.7%) · top-3 cover 40.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)8.1e-56.1e-54.1e-52.0e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 6.60e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.60e-5 · 11.9% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.38e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.18e-5 · 3.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.73e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.73e-5 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.92e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.92e-5 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.03e-5 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.13e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.13e-5 · 14.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.91e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.91e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.05e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.05e-5 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.94e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.94e-5 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.76e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.76e-5 · 3.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 13.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.18e-5 · 13.0% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 14.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.540e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2816 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 17.0 d · σ/bar 0.053pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.08ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0272 · n = 2816✓ n = 2816
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.053pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.26pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move17d
1.08pp
σ × √408.88133694444446
Terminal variancebinary
0.0272
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.09pp · ES₉₅ 0.11pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2816
VaR 95%
0.09pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.11pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
74.7pp
peak 4.2¢ → trough 1.1¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
35.714
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3471
$100 wins $3471
FractionalUK
34.71 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3471.43
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.8%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.184 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.184 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.16 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
61594851917845046863756783196540033519655644339689420079793185248292111735512
NO token ID
111955313050107562363663664749376439050061635382095754277177971556591609059639
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:07:02 UTC
Snapshot age
4.9s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:07:07 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
ada595a970bf849f0251d0d9c2482233e8a56462e6c6b2551dbf94641e05e5ae · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,463HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,672.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.84

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Tech & Business

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.028000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1428.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.550
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.828
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-valuation-hit-high-3pt5t-by-june-30/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.06192612116.53bp0.53700018FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.347097113963.20bp0.78000032FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.795314274040.65bp0.97800046FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0014779472.43bp0.00100021PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0014779472.43bp0.00100021PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0014779472.43bp0.00100021PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,816 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
3110.97%
σ per bar = 0.023498
Mean return (annualised)
-24501.30%
μ per bar = -0.000140
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.88
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
74.70%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.01 over 1087 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-spacexs-valuation-hit-high-3pt5t-by-june-30/risk · same metrics, JSON