POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641 · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
510
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.2s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
99.9¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0142 · σ=0.0109 · range [0.0015, 0.0355] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -94.83%σ EXTREME 77.14%LAST 0.00150.03550.02700.01850.01000.0015μ = 0.0142max 0.0355min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%NO99.9%99.85¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.016 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢666.67×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.9%99.9¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=805 · μ=33.5 · σ=44.1 · CV=1.32BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=804487131175μ = 3417550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 805bp moved · peak 175bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.2s
▲YES mid
0.15¢ (0.15%)
▼NO mid
99.85¢ (99.85%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$49.5k
≋liquidity $
$44.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0142 · σ=0.0109 · range [0.0015, 0.0355] · R²=0.797▼ FALLING -94.83%σ EXTREME 77.14%LAST 0.00150.03550.02700.01850.01000.0015μ = 0.0142max 0.0355min 0.0015dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9858 · σ=0.0109 · range [0.9645, 0.9985] · R²=0.797▲ RISING +2.83%σ NORMAL 1.11%LAST 0.99850.99850.99000.98150.97300.9645μ = 0.9858max 0.9985min 0.9645dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0011 · σ=0.0052 · skew=-0.96 (left-skewed) · kurt=1.55 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1085301-1.61ppbin -1.61pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.61pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak-1.33pp1-1.05ppbin -1.05pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin -1.05pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak2-0.77ppbin -0.77pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -0.77pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak-0.49pp6-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=6 · 60.0% peakbin -0.21pp · n=6 · 60.0% peak100.07ppbin 0.07pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.07pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak20.35ppbin 0.35pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 0.35pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak10.63ppbin 0.63pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.63pp · n=1 · 10.0% peak10.91ppbin 0.91pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 0.91pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.94 · kurt=2.22 · near 14 / mid 9 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.95 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.48)
μ MEAN1.42¢95% CI: [0.99¢, 1.85¢]
σ STD DEV1.09ppσ² = 1.196 · CV = 77.14%
med MEDIAN1.75¢Q₁ 0.30¢ · Q₃ 2.35¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 3.40pp · IQR 2.05pp (1.349σ→1.48pp)
min 0.15¢Q₁ 0.30¢med 1.75¢Q₃ 2.35¢max 3.55¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.158approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.478platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.30
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.72
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.11
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.254within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.153lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.934strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.507significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.934
H = 0.934STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.254k=2-0.153k=3-0.007k=4-0.154k=5+0.1760+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.51)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.51)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961539
SLUGwill-the-next-di…-country-641
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.15¢implied prob 0.15% · decimal odds 666.67×
COUNTER · NO99.85¢implied prob 99.85% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.15¢
99.85¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME49.50k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY44.11k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.997 · entropy 0.016 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 99.9%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.016 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES666.67×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.016 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
14hrs
32min
9.61 days·θ = 5.359 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 99.9%)
current: $0.0015 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=1.09% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 5.359 pp/day
now9.61d left
5.359 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.20d left
6.188 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.80d left
7.578 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.40d left
10.717 pp/day×2.00
−90%23.05h left
16.945 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.05% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.34%BEARISH SESSION -2.75%BEST+1.05%7hWORST-1.75%8hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.75%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.09% · Σ +0.65%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.05%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.35%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.75%+0.65%-2.75%-0.75% · 1h-0.75% · 1h-0.75%1h-0.15% · 2h-0.15% · 2h-0.15%2h0.40% · 3h0.40% · 3h0.40%3h0.45% · 4h0.45% · 4h0.45%4h-0.25% · 5h-0.25% · 5h-0.25%5h-0.10% · 6h-0.10% · 6h-0.10%6h1.05% · 7h1.05% · 7h1.05%7h★ BEST-1.75% · 8h-1.75% · 8h-1.75%8h▼ WORST0.10% · 9h0.10% · 9h0.10%9h-0.15% · 10h-0.15% · 10h-0.15%10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h-0.85% · 13h-0.85% · 13h-0.85%13h-0.95% · 14h-0.95% · 14h-0.95%14h-0.05% · 15h-0.05% · 15h-0.05%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.05% · 17h0.05% · 17h0.05%17h-0.25% · 18h-0.25% · 18h-0.25%18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.65%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH29% up · 50% down · 21% flat
7 up bars · 12 down · best 1.05% · worst -1.75% · typical |Δ| 0.335%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.75%)FINAL-2.75%MAX DD-3.37%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.64%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9725 · peak 1.0064 · range [0.9725, 1.0064]1.00640.9725break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0064UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.37% · moderate0%-3.37%▼ TROUGH -3.37%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.37%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.90%bar 2-7 · 6 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.37%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9725 (-2.75%) · max DD -3.37% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-31.88 · σ=28.07UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -55.93 (-0.86σ vs μ)71.7935.900.00-35.90-71.79μ = -31.88-14.00-14.0043.9743.97-3.26-3.26-8.31-8.31-19.02-19.02-12.88-12.88-2.48-2.48-38.91-38.91-33.87-33.87-38.81-38.81-34.18-34.18-35.87-35.87-71.79-71.79-54.26-54.26-60.42-60.42-51.10-51.10-51.10-51.10-63.46-63.46-55.93-55.93v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -55.934 · range [-71.79, 43.97] · μ -31.877 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=49.0939 · σ=30.3986 · range [3.9154, 89.7080] · R²=0.621▼ FALLING -90.61%σ EXTREME 61.92%LAST 3.915489.708068.259846.811725.36353.9154μ = 49.0939max 89.7080min 3.9154dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.62μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 3.92% · range [3.92%, 89.71%] · μ 49.09% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.089 · σ=0.306CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.357 (+1.46σ vs μ)0.5580.2790.000-0.279-0.558μ = -0.0890.1720.172-0.198-0.198-0.395-0.395-0.522-0.522-0.558-0.558-0.547-0.547-0.457-0.457-0.151-0.1510.1660.1660.0820.0820.0950.095-0.011-0.0110.4040.404-0.059-0.059-0.130-0.130-0.111-0.111-0.162-0.1620.3220.3220.3570.357v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.357 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀**

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
13.4080
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0012
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1727
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5266
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3388
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6096
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5899
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5552
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (11 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8446
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0056
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.4423
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1492
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.561 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.94e-5 · top T=2.40h (15.8%) · top-3 cover 43.0%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)5.6e-54.2e-52.8e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 8.50e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.50e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.59e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.59e-6 · 1.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.54e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.54e-5 · 4.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.56e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.56e-5 · 12.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.54e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.24e-5 · 12.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.80e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.35e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.03e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.03e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.59e-5 · 15.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.43e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.43e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 5.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.93e-5 · 5.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 15.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.530e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752518 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.6 d · σ/bar 0.091pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.38ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0015 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.091pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.44pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
1.38pp
σ × √230.5373686111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.0015
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.15pp · ES₉₅ 0.19pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
0.15pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.19pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
97.3pp
peak 5.6¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
666.667
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+66567
$100 wins $66567
FractionalUK
665.67 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$66566.67
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.016 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.016 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
9.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
49064161236110336644222472491515813368749230225531571431832641334870400992489
NO token ID
114162239904144831117447658350353405667729280874799490177482794996915634112350
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:27:44 UTC
Snapshot age
1.2s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:27:45 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
162ecbfc2553005cd37254ff83a91c68555c233a519675acc17992c96bf8e33f · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,514HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.25HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,723.7

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.001500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6666.7bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.750
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.723
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.044574287162.03bp0.19900036FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.2565921700614.48bp0.76000074FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.7130754743835.44bp0.980000109FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0010003333.33bp0.0010001PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
8415.59%
σ per bar = 0.063570
Mean return (annualised)
-17908.21%
μ per bar = -0.000102
Sharpe (rf=0)
-2.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
97.32%
peak 0.06 → trough 0.00 over 3838 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-another-european-country-641/risk · same metrics, JSON