POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHERE WILL THE NEXT US-IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING HAPPEN?

Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States?

YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-the-united-states-744 · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
508
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-the-united-states-744/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.3s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.1¢
NO · live
100.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0053 · σ=0.0071 · range [0.0005, 0.0245] · R²=0.093▼ FALLING -94.44%σ EXTREME 135.10%LAST 0.00050.02450.01850.01250.00650.0005μ = 0.0053max 0.0245min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.05¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%NO100.0%99.95¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.006 / 1.00 bits (1%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.1%0.1¢2000.00×▬ +0.00pp
NO
100.0%100.0¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=625 · μ=26.0 · σ=49.9 · CV=1.92BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=8060120180240μ = 2624050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 625bp moved · peak 240bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.3s
▲YES mid
0.05¢ (0.05%)
▼NO mid
99.95¢ (99.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$43.7k
≋liquidity $
$25.5k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0053 · σ=0.0071 · range [0.0005, 0.0245] · R²=0.093▼ FALLING -94.44%σ EXTREME 135.10%LAST 0.00050.02450.01850.01250.00650.0005μ = 0.0053max 0.0245min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.05¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9947 · σ=0.0071 · range [0.9755, 0.9995] · R²=0.093▲ RISING +0.86%σ LOW 0.71%LAST 0.99950.99950.99350.98750.98150.9755μ = 0.9947max 0.9995min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.09μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.95¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0053 · skew=2.90 (right-skewed) · kurt=10.10 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1186305-0.50ppbin -0.50pp · n=5 · 45.5% peakbin -0.50pp · n=5 · 45.5% peak6-0.19ppbin -0.19pp · n=6 · 54.5% peakbin -0.19pp · n=6 · 54.5% peak110.11ppbin 0.11pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 0.11pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak10.42ppbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 0.42pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak0.72pp1.03pp1.33pp1.64pp1.94pp12.25ppbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 2.25pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.43 · kurt=12.87 · near 10 / mid 12 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.75 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.37σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.48)
μ MEAN0.53¢95% CI: [0.25¢, 0.80¢]
σ STD DEV0.71ppσ² = 0.505 · CV = 135.10%
med MEDIAN0.15¢Q₁ 0.05¢ · Q₃ 0.80¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 2.40pp · IQR 0.75pp (1.349σ→0.96pp)
min 0.05¢Q₁ 0.05¢med 0.15¢Q₃ 0.80¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.482right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.001leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.53
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.28
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.38
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.004within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.140lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.857strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.534fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.857
H = 0.857STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.004k=2-0.140k=3-0.075k=4-0.090k=5+0.0780+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.53)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.72very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.53)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1961531
SLUGwill-the-next-di…d-states-744
CATEGORYWhere will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.05¢implied prob 0.05% · decimal odds 2000.00×
COUNTER · NO99.95¢implied prob 99.95% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.05¢
99.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME43.74k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY25.48k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.999 · entropy 0.006 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.1%NO 100.0%YES p̂0.1%H = 0.006 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2000.00×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.006 bits (1% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
9days
14hrs
32min
9.61 days·θ = 3.481 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 0.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 100.0%)
current: $0.0005 · expected return per side: $1.00 on YES hit · $0.00 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+4.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.71% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 3.481 pp/day
now9.61d left
3.481 pp/day×1.00
−25%7.20d left
4.020 pp/day×1.15
−50%4.80d left
4.924 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.40d left
6.963 pp/day×2.00
−90%23.05h left
11.009 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.40% · worst -0.65% · typical |Δ| 0.26%BEARISH SESSION -0.85%BEST+2.40%8hWORST-0.65%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.26%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.85%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.12% · Σ -0.85%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.85%+1.55%-0.85%-0.40% · 1h-0.40% · 1h-0.40%1h-0.15% · 2h-0.15% · 2h-0.15%2h-0.20% · 3h-0.20% · 3h-0.20%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.10% · 6h-0.10% · 6h-0.10%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h2.40% · 8h2.40% · 8h2.40%8h★ BEST-0.20% · 9h-0.20% · 9h-0.20%9h-0.55% · 10h-0.55% · 10h-0.55%10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h-0.50% · 12h-0.50% · 12h-0.50%12h0.30% · 13h0.30% · 13h0.30%13h-0.65% · 14h-0.65% · 14h-0.65%14h▼ WORST-0.30% · 15h-0.30% · 15h-0.30%15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.10% · 18h-0.10% · 18h-0.10%18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.10%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 4BREADTH8% up · 46% down · 46% flat
2 up bars · 11 down · best 2.40% · worst -0.65% · typical |Δ| 0.260%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-0.88%)FINAL-0.88%MAX DD-2.38%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.53%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9912 · peak 1.0153 · range [0.9912, 1.0153]1.01530.9912break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0153UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.38% · moderate0%-2.38%▼ TROUGH -2.38%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -2.38%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.85%bar 2-8 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.38%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9912 (-0.88%) · max DD -2.38% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +6 / −12 (32% positive) · μ=-32.15 · σ=43.96UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 0.00 (+0.73σ vs μ)96.1848.090.00-48.09-96.18μ = -32.15-88.56-88.56-79.74-79.7432.5232.5232.5232.5222.6222.6216.3116.3110.3310.3314.4614.46-90.19-90.19-96.18-96.18-69.11-69.11-50.45-50.45-36.32-36.32-62.93-62.93-51.52-51.52-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.210.000.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · range [-96.18, 32.52] · μ -32.152 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.8699 · σ=41.1645 · range [0.0000, 106.0455] · R²=0.350▼ FALLING -100.00%σ EXTREME 93.83%LAST 0.0000106.045579.534153.022826.51140.0000μ = 43.8699max 106.0455min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 0.00% · range [0.00%, 106.05%] · μ 43.87% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −14 (21% positive) · μ=-0.156 · σ=0.234MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.000 (+0.67σ vs μ)0.5170.2590.000-0.259-0.517μ = -0.1560.1820.1820.0480.048-0.017-0.017-0.277-0.277-0.171-0.171-0.083-0.083-0.019-0.0190.0250.025-0.517-0.517-0.500-0.500-0.513-0.513-0.493-0.493-0.259-0.2590.2790.279-0.152-0.152-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.000v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.000 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
319.7416
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.1747
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9458
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3080
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7504
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4530
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (5 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2304
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3037
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.1043
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9169
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.968 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.09e-5 · top T=4.80h (14.8%) · top-3 cover 42.9%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)5.5e-54.1e-52.7e-51.4e-50.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.21e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.32e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.32e-5 · 14.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.89e-5 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.13e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 2.13e-5 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.49e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.49e-5 · 14.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.11e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.11e-5 · 13.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.24e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.24e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.24e-5 · 6.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.87e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.87e-5 · 13.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.18e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.45e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.45e-5 · 6.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.00e-5 · 2.7% energy50% by T=4.0h#1 dominantT=4.80h#2T=12.00h#3T=4.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 4.80h (freq 0.208) · concentrates 14.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.714e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (559 bars · effective 1752129 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 9.6 d · σ/bar 0.065pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.98ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0005 · n = 559✓ n = 559
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.065pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.32pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move10d
0.98pp
σ × √230.54733083333335
Terminal variancebinary
0.0005
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.11pp · ES₉₅ 0.13pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 559
VaR 95%
0.11pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.13pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
96.3pp
peak 1.4¢ → trough 0.1¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2000.000
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+199900
$100 wins $199900
FractionalUK
1999.00 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$199900.00
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.006 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.006 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
10.97 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
114159934651184028792209919362485767211463619406663952210455781190773259415844
NO token ID
54649704673873837602926958697322176469681250736284913730647626519674058103334
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 09:27:08 UTC
Snapshot age
1.3s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 09:27:09 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2b7d59ae0b3e5837df5d3090ad660d457f0228dc6e815ceec1d0b9af639fc19e · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.4¢HL PREDEcuador86.3¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?6¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,512HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$70.25HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,723.4

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Where will the next US-Iran diplomatic meeting happen?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
—
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
—
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-1.000
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-1.000
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-the-united-states-744/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K————ERR
BUY$10.00K————ERR
BUY$100.00K————ERR
SELL$1.00K————ERR
SELL$10.00K————ERR
SELL$100.00K————ERR

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 559 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
23254.17%
σ per bar = 0.175678
Mean return (annualised)
-0.00%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.00
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
96.30%
peak 0.01 → trough 0.00 over 18 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-next-diplomatic-us-iran-meeting-be-in-the-united-states-744/risk · same metrics, JSON