POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will the No to ten million Switzerland initiative be approved in Switzerland’s June 14, 2026 popular vote?

YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-no-to-ten-million-switzerland-initiative-be-approved-in-switzerlands-june-14-2026-popular-vote · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -98.67%
realized vol (ann.)
643.63%
max drawdown
99.02%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
78.29%
RMS drawdown
pain index
65.78%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
99.02%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.41
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.41
upside/downside
roll spread
23.8 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-98.67%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -98.67%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-no-to-ten-million-switzerland-initiative-be-approved-in-switzerlands-june-14-2026-popular-vote/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH6ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
0.3¢
NO · live
99.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1756 · σ=0.1188 · range [0.0030, 0.3950] · R²=0.441▼ FALLING -98.83%σ EXTREME 67.70%LAST 0.00350.39500.29700.19900.10100.0030μ = 0.1756max 0.3950min 0.0030dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 0.35¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 0.3%NO 99.7%NO99.7%99.70¢ · odds 1/1.00
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.029 / 1.00 bits (3%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
0.3%0.3¢333.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO
99.7%99.7¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=11,475 · μ=478.1 · σ=576.8 · CV=1.21BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1103887751,1631,550μ = 4781,55050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 11475bp moved · peak 1550bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
6ms
▲YES mid
0.30¢ (0.30%)
▼NO mid
99.70¢ (99.70%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$287.0k
≋liquidity $
$73.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1756 · σ=0.1188 · range [0.0030, 0.3950] · R²=0.441▼ FALLING -98.83%σ EXTREME 67.70%LAST 0.00350.39500.29700.19900.10100.0030μ = 0.1756max 0.3950min 0.0030dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 0.35¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8244 · σ=0.1188 · range [0.6050, 0.9970] · R²=0.441▲ RISING +42.36%σ HIGH 14.42%LAST 0.99650.99700.89900.80100.70300.6050μ = 0.8244max 0.9970min 0.6050dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.44μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 99.65¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0075 · σ=0.0692 · skew=-0.29 (symmetric) · kurt=0.26 (mesokurtic)1186303-14.00ppbin -14.00pp · n=3 · 27.3% peakbin -14.00pp · n=3 · 27.3% peak1-11.00ppbin -11.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -11.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak-8.00pp1-5.00ppbin -5.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin -5.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak4-2.00ppbin -2.00pp · n=4 · 36.4% peakbin -2.00pp · n=4 · 36.4% peak111.00ppbin 1.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peakbin 1.00pp · n=11 · 100.0% peak14.00ppbin 4.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 4.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak17.00ppbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peakbin 7.00pp · n=1 · 9.1% peak10.00pp213.00ppbin 13.00pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakbin 13.00pp · n=2 · 18.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.10 · kurt=0.28 · near 10 / mid 14 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.97 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.25)
μ MEAN17.56¢95% CI: [12.90¢, 22.21¢]
σ STD DEV11.88ppσ² = 141.253 · CV = 67.70%
med MEDIAN22.00¢Q₁ 4.05¢ · Q₃ 24.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 39.20pp · IQR 20.45pp (1.349σ→16.03pp)
min 0.30¢Q₁ 4.05¢med 22.00¢Q₃ 24.50¢max 39.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.352approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.247platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.37
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.30
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.291within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.199lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.750strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-4.257significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.750
H = 0.750STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.291k=2+0.199k=3-0.283k=4+0.138k=5-0.1590+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.26)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.29 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.79very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=4.26)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1845700
SLUGwill-the-no-to-t…popular-vote
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)
PRIMARY · YES0.30¢implied prob 0.30% · decimal odds 333.33×
COUNTER · NO99.70¢implied prob 99.70% · decimal odds 1.00×
0.30¢
99.70¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME286.98k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY73.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.994 · entropy 0.029 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 0.3%NO 99.7%YES p̂0.3%H = 0.029 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES333.33×(0¢)NO1.00×(100¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.029 bits (3% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 14.50% · worst -15.50% · typical |Δ| 4.78%BEARISH SESSION -29.65%BEST+14.50%7hWORST-15.50%12hTYPICAL |Δ|4.78%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-29.65%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.21% · Σ -8.50%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.31% · Σ +2.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ -2.96% · Σ -23.70%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -29.65%+9.50%-29.70%-4.50% · 1h-4.50% · 1h-4.50%1h-3.50% · 2h-3.50% · 2h-3.50%2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h-1.00% · 4h-1.00% · 4h-1.00%4h1.00% · 5h1.00% · 5h1.00%5h-15.00% · 6h-15.00% · 6h-15.00%6h14.50% · 7h14.50% · 7h14.50%7h★ BEST-0.50% · 8h-0.50% · 8h-0.50%8h8.50% · 9h8.50% · 9h8.50%9h-2.50% · 10h-2.50% · 10h-2.50%10h12.50% · 11h12.50% · 11h12.50%11h-15.50% · 12h-15.50% · 12h-15.50%12h▼ WORST0.50% · 13h0.50% · 13h0.50%13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h5.50% · 16h5.50% · 16h5.50%16h-11.50% · 17h-11.50% · 17h-11.50%17h-13.95% · 18h-13.95% · 18h-13.95%18h-3.35% · 19h-3.35% · 19h-3.35%19h-0.05% · 20h-0.05% · 20h-0.05%20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h-0.05% · 22h-0.05% · 22h-0.05%22h-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h0.05% · 24h0.05% · 24h0.05%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+2.50%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 7BREADTH29% up · 63% down · 8% flat
7 up bars · 15 down · best 14.50% · worst -15.50% · typical |Δ| 4.781%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -30.56%FINAL-30.56%MAX DD-34.65%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+6.20%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.6944 · peak 1.0620 · range [0.6940, 1.0620]1.06200.6940break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0620UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -34.65% · severe0%-34.65%▼ TROUGH -34.65%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -34.65%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -21.67%bar 2-11 · 10 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -34.65%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.6944 (-30.56%) · max DD -34.65% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-20.65 · σ=31.21MIXED EDGELAST -43.02 (-0.72σ vs μ)72.3236.160.00-36.16-72.32μ = -20.65-61.29-61.29-6.60-6.60-1.67-1.6711.6911.699.289.2824.5324.5323.4923.494.814.814.814.81-9.61-9.614.224.22-41.52-41.52-40.77-40.77-50.14-50.14-48.90-48.90-49.45-49.45-72.32-72.32-49.80-49.80-43.02-43.02v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -43.024 · range [-72.32, 24.53] · μ -20.646 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=768.2461 · σ=220.1469 · range [125.5591, 1056.6967] · R²=0.406▼ FALLING -77.08%σ EXTREME 28.66%LAST 125.55911056.6967823.9123591.1279358.3435125.5591μ = 768.2461max 1056.6967min 125.5591dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.41μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 125.56% · range [125.56%, 1056.70%] · μ 768.25% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.235 · σ=0.354MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.049 (+0.53σ vs μ)0.5940.2970.000-0.297-0.594μ = -0.235-0.166-0.166-0.546-0.546-0.551-0.551-0.493-0.493-0.538-0.538-0.563-0.563-0.497-0.497-0.549-0.549-0.532-0.532-0.594-0.594-0.459-0.459-0.197-0.1970.2210.2210.1790.1790.1380.1380.0560.0560.5010.5010.1790.179-0.049-0.049v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.049 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4610
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7941
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.2254
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2032
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3937
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5840
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.7528
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0796
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5316
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0346
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6534
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5135
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.801 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=6.04e-3 · top T=2.00h (23.8%) · top-3 cover 57.0%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.7e-21.3e-28.6e-34.3e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.83e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.83e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.37e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.37e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-3 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.37e-3 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.16e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 9.16e-3 · 12.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.01e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.01e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.09e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 6.09e-3 · 8.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.34e-3 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.34e-3 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.88e-3 · 9.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.88e-3 · 9.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.55e-3 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.55e-3 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.87e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.87e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-2 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.49e-2 · 20.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.73e-2 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.73e-2 · 23.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.18h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 23.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.249e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3866 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.578pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0030 · n = 3866✓ n = 3866
μ per bar
-0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.578pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.83pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
1.42pp
σ × √6
Terminal variancebinary
0.0030
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
0.3¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.96pp · ES₉₅ 1.20pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.50pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 3866
VaR 95%
0.96pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.20pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
99.2pp
peak 38.0¢ → trough 0.3¢
Median step
0.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
0.3%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
333.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+33233
$100 wins $33233
FractionalUK
332.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$33233.33
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 0.3%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.029 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.029 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
8.38 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.00 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
110415947867502851823417163135703780640916104008376308987909133787379806125789
NO token ID
49588944946686347229444704370062324905015901378396113319766547188834293274927
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:47:02 UTC
Snapshot age
6ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:47:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
f4dcd43ad9c723587fdec0ef875ac99e994c2818c0ea1ced22bd14a0cd81629d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.003500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
8571.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.977
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.708
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-no-to-ten-million-switzerland-initiative-be-approved-in-switzerlands-june-14-2026-popular-vote/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.01690238292.37bp0.50000021FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.135116376045.01bp0.70000029FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.5899621675606.54bp0.99400048FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0012806343.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0012806343.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0012806343.04bp0.0010002PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,866 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
7453.03%
σ per bar = 0.056294
Mean return (annualised)
-195801.77%
μ per bar = -0.001117
Sharpe (rf=0)
-26.27
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
99.21%
peak 0.38 → trough 0.00 over 2318 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-no-to-ten-million-switzerland-initiative-be-approved-in-switzerlands-june-14-2026-popular-vote/risk · same metrics, JSON