POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WHICH COUNTRIES WILL SEND WARSHIPS THROUGH THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ BY JUNE 30?

Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026?

YES · live
7.7¢
NO · live
92.3¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
38.77%
max drawdown
9.92%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.63%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.66%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
9.92%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.78
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.78
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH7.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.7¢
NO · live
92.3¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0715 · σ=0.0261 · range [0.0445, 0.1740] · R²=0.019▲ RISING +76.40%σ EXTREME 36.53%LAST 0.07850.17400.14160.10920.07690.0445μ = 0.0715max 0.1740min 0.0445dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.85¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.7%NO 92.3%NO92.3%92.30¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.392 / 1.00 bits (39%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.7%7.7¢12.99×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.3%92.3¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=4,790 · μ=199.6 · σ=349.7 · CV=1.75BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=403196389561,275μ = 2001,27550%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 4790bp moved · peak 1275bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
7.0s
▲YES mid
7.70¢ (7.70%)
▼NO mid
92.30¢ (92.30%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$236.8k
≋liquidity $
$24.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0715 · σ=0.0261 · range [0.0445, 0.1740] · R²=0.019▲ RISING +76.40%σ EXTREME 36.53%LAST 0.07850.17400.14160.10920.07690.0445μ = 0.0715max 0.1740min 0.0445dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.85¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9285 · σ=0.0261 · range [0.8260, 0.9555] · R²=0.019▼ FALLING -3.56%σ NORMAL 2.81%LAST 0.92150.95550.92310.89070.85840.8260μ = 0.9285max 0.9555min 0.8260dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.15¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0021 · σ=0.0367 · skew=0.46 (symmetric) · kurt=4.30 (leptokurtic (fat tails))17139401-10.53ppbin -10.53pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -10.53pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-8.07pp1-5.62ppbin -5.62pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin -5.62pp · n=1 · 5.9% peak-3.17pp17-0.72ppbin -0.72pp · n=17 · 100.0% peakbin -0.72pp · n=17 · 100.0% peak21.73ppbin 1.73pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 1.73pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak24.18ppbin 4.18pp · n=2 · 11.8% peakbin 4.18pp · n=2 · 11.8% peak6.63pp9.08pp111.53ppbin 11.53pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakbin 11.53pp · n=1 · 5.9% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.25 · kurt=4.92 · near 8 / mid 15 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.88 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.86)
μ MEAN7.15¢95% CI: [6.12¢, 8.17¢]
σ STD DEV2.61ppσ² = 6.820 · CV = 36.53%
med MEDIAN6.30¢Q₁ 6.05¢ · Q₃ 7.70¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 12.95pp · IQR 1.65pp (1.349σ→3.52pp)
min 4.45¢Q₁ 6.05¢med 6.30¢Q₃ 7.70¢max 17.40¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.443right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.865leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.32
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.14
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.96
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.70 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.696negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.388lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.956strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.665fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.956
H = 0.956STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.696k=2+0.388k=3-0.262k=4+0.130k=5+0.0220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.66)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.70 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.66)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2333694
SLUGwill-the-united-…june-30-2026
CATEGORYWhich countries … by June 30?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (92¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.70¢implied prob 7.70% · decimal odds 12.99×
COUNTER · NO92.30¢implied prob 92.30% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.70¢
92.30¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME236.82k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY24.29k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (92¢)|primary − counter| = 0.846 · entropy 0.392 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.7%NO 92.3%YES p̂7.7%H = 0.392 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES12.99×(8¢)NO1.08×(92¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.392 bits (39% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-06-30 00:00 UTC
15days
12hrs
50min
15.53 days·θ = 12.794 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.7%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.3%)
current: $0.0770 · expected return per side: $0.92 on YES hit · $0.08 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+7.8dRESOLVESP projection · σ=2.61% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 12.794 pp/day
now15.53d left
12.794 pp/day×1.00
−25%11.65d left
14.773 pp/day×1.15
−50%7.77d left
18.093 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.88d left
25.587 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.55d left
40.457 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 12.75% · worst -11.75% · typical |Δ| 2.00%MILD BULLISH +3.40%BEST+12.75%3hWORST-11.75%4hTYPICAL |Δ|2.00%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+3.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 3up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.77% · Σ +5.40%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.44% · Σ -3.55%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.40%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +3.40%+12.95%0.00%0.05% · 1h0.05% · 1h0.05%1h0.15% · 2h0.15% · 2h0.15%2h12.75% · 3h12.75% · 3h12.75%3h★ BEST-11.75% · 4h-11.75% · 4h-11.75%4h▼ WORST5.30% · 5h5.30% · 5h5.30%5h-4.80% · 6h-4.80% · 6h-4.80%6h3.70% · 7h3.70% · 7h3.70%7h-1.75% · 8h-1.75% · 8h-1.75%8h-1.10% · 9h-1.10% · 9h-1.10%9h1.45% · 10h1.45% · 10h1.45%10h-1.70% · 11h-1.70% · 11h-1.70%11h-0.15% · 12h-0.15% · 12h-0.15%12h-0.35% · 13h-0.35% · 13h-0.35%13h0.05% · 14h0.05% · 14h0.05%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h-0.40% · 16h-0.40% · 16h-0.40%16h0.15% · 17h0.15% · 17h0.15%17h-0.05% · 18h-0.05% · 18h-0.05%18h0.25% · 19h0.25% · 19h0.25%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-0.20% · 21h-0.20% · 21h-0.20%21h1.25% · 22h1.25% · 22h1.25%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h0.15% · 24h0.15% · 24h0.15%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+5.40%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 42% down · 8% flat
12 up bars · 10 down · best 12.75% · worst -11.75% · typical |Δ| 1.996%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +1.53%FINAL+1.53%MAX DD-11.86%RECOVERYONGOING · 21 barsMAX RUN-UP+12.98%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↗ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0153 · peak 1.1298 · range [0.9958, 1.1298]1.12980.9958break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1298UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -11.86% · significant0%-11.86%▼ TROUGH -11.86%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -11.86%bar 5-25 · 21 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -11.86%)RECOVERYongoing · 21 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0153 (1.53%) · max DD -11.86% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −10 (42% positive) · μ=-6.43 · σ=32.73MIXED EDGELAST 57.10 (+1.94σ vs μ)61.1830.590.00-30.59-61.18μ = -6.433.163.169.839.836.296.29-26.38-26.3811.6811.68-22.33-22.333.283.28-46.64-46.64-26.05-26.05-10.86-10.86-61.18-61.18-49.00-49.00-41.86-41.860.000.00-3.51-3.51-16.57-16.5741.8241.8249.1049.1057.1057.10v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 57.102 · range [-61.18, 57.10] · μ -6.426 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=231.6255 · σ=287.1647 · range [20.8060, 801.3424] · R²=0.716▼ FALLING -93.97%σ EXTREME 123.98%LAST 47.3017801.3424606.2083411.0742215.940120.8060μ = 231.6255max 801.3424min 20.8060dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 47.30% · range [20.81%, 801.34%] · μ 231.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +0 / −19 (0% positive) · μ=-0.438 · σ=0.211MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.182 (+1.22σ vs μ)0.7080.3540.000-0.354-0.708μ = -0.438-0.676-0.676-0.708-0.708-0.703-0.703-0.575-0.575-0.683-0.683-0.586-0.586-0.354-0.354-0.426-0.426-0.703-0.703-0.482-0.482-0.039-0.039-0.484-0.484-0.460-0.460-0.320-0.320-0.326-0.326-0.242-0.242-0.238-0.238-0.142-0.142-0.182-0.182v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.182 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
4 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence4 reject·2 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
41.5364
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
19.9934
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0014
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀***

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-5.7283
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.3623
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1731
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1611
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4247
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-2.0948
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0362
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneVR 0.363 → mean-reverting
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.78e-3 · top T=2.18h (25.9%) · top-3 cover 73.6%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)5.5e-34.2e-32.8e-31.4e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.62e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.62e-4 · 1.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.29e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-4 · 0.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.60e-4 · 0.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.69e-4 · 1.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.82e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 5.82e-4 · 2.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.15e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.15e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.17e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.17e-4 · 4.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.01e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.01e-4 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-3 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.57e-3 · 7.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.08e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.08e-3 · 23.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.54e-3 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.54e-3 · 25.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.13e-3 · 24.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.13e-3 · 24.0% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=2.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 25.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.139e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2827 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 15.5 d · σ/bar 0.034pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.65ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0711 · n = 2827✓ n = 2827
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.034pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.17pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
0.65pp
σ × √372.8357152777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0711
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.01✓ n = 2827
VaR 95%
0.06pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.07pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
30.2pp
peak 8.5¢ → trough 5.9¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
12.987
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1199
$100 wins $1199
FractionalUK
11.99 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1198.70
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.7%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.392 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.392 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.70 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.12 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
13759366667726609790767395154955278694679969857756889392762019045230454696538
NO token ID
65533206840375424169064400943473222908115756704111768265226041235486385837594
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:09:44 UTC
Snapshot age
7.0s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:09:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
735d4586a50084dc564059531e41debef81c031dc1dc67d61ca3d317212fe97c · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.4¢HL PREDUruguay66.6¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,489HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,673HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.73

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by June 30?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.078500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
636.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.045
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.468
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.26612123900.82bp0.36000031FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.48434951700.55bp0.67000051FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.82746495409.45bp0.99900076FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0047489395.19bp0.00100047PARTIAL
SELL$10.00K0.0047489395.19bp0.00100047PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0047489395.19bp0.00100047PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,827 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
637.12%
σ per bar = 0.004812
Mean return (annualised)
-5764.93%
μ per bar = -0.000033
Sharpe (rf=0)
-9.05
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
30.18%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.06 over 1407 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-united-kingdom-send-warships-through-the-strait-of-hormuz-by-june-30-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON