POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS

Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

YES · live
7.5¢
NO · live
92.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-the-winner-of-kosovoromaniaslovakiatrkiye-playoff-win-group-d-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -76.92%
realized vol (ann.)
53.38%
max drawdown
21.05%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.23%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
21.05%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-76.92%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -76.92%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-the-winner-of-kosovoromaniaslovakiatrkiye-playoff-win-group-d-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
7.5¢
NO · live
92.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1996 · σ=0.1164 · range [0.0700, 0.3250] · R²=0.818▼ FALLING -76.92%σ EXTREME 58.33%LAST 0.07500.32500.26120.19750.13380.0700μ = 0.1996max 0.3250min 0.0700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 7.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 7.5%NO 92.5%NO92.5%92.50¢ · odds 1/1.08
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.384 / 1.00 bits (38%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
7.5%7.5¢13.33×▬ +0.00pp
NO
92.5%92.5¢1.08×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=3,000 · μ=125.0 · σ=324.4 · CV=2.59BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1303256509751,300μ = 1251,30050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 3000bp moved · peak 1300bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
7.50¢ (7.50%)
▼NO mid
92.50¢ (92.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$60.1k
≋liquidity $
$54.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1996 · σ=0.1164 · range [0.0700, 0.3250] · R²=0.818▼ FALLING -76.92%σ EXTREME 58.33%LAST 0.07500.32500.26120.19750.13380.0700μ = 0.1996max 0.3250min 0.0700dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 7.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8004 · σ=0.1164 · range [0.6750, 0.9300] · R²=0.818▲ RISING +37.04%σ HIGH 14.55%LAST 0.92500.93000.86630.80250.73880.6750μ = 0.8004max 0.9300min 0.6750dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.82μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0087 · σ=0.0312 · skew=-2.89 (left-skewed) · kurt=6.95 (leptokurtic (fat tails))191410501-12.30ppbin -12.30pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -12.30pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-10.90pp1-9.50ppbin -9.50pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -9.50pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak-8.10pp-6.70pp-5.30pp-3.90pp1-2.50ppbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 5.3% peakbin -2.50pp · n=1 · 5.3% peak2-1.10ppbin -1.10pp · n=2 · 10.5% peakbin -1.10pp · n=2 · 10.5% peak190.30ppbin 0.30pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakbin 0.30pp · n=19 · 100.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-2.91 · kurt=7.07 · near 6 / mid 13 / far 5 · OLS slope=0.69 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSTHIN UPPER TAILMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=-1.64σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-2.02)
μ MEAN19.96¢95% CI: [15.40¢, 24.52¢]
σ STD DEV11.64ppσ² = 135.540 · CV = 58.33%
med MEDIAN21.50¢Q₁ 8.50¢ · Q₃ 31.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 25.50pp · IQR 23.00pp (1.349σ→15.71pp)
min 7.00¢Q₁ 8.50¢med 21.50¢Q₃ 31.50¢max 32.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.015approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-2.019platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.13
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.68
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.19
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.365within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.163lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.084strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.171significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.084
H = 1.084STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.365k=2-0.163k=3-0.125k=4-0.171k=5-0.1550+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.17)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.17)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID839423
SLUGwill-the-winner-…fa-world-cup
CATEGORYSports
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (93¢)
PRIMARY · YES7.50¢implied prob 7.50% · decimal odds 13.33×
COUNTER · NO92.50¢implied prob 92.50% · decimal odds 1.08×
7.50¢
92.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME60.05k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY54.22k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (93¢)|primary − counter| = 0.850 · entropy 0.384 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 7.5%NO 92.5%YES p̂7.5%H = 0.384 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES13.33×(8¢)NO1.08×(93¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.384 bits (38% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-27 00:00 UTC
12days
07hrs
13min
12.30 days·θ = 57.035 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 7.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 92.5%)
current: $0.0750 · expected return per side: $0.93 on YES hit · $0.07 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=11.64% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 57.035 pp/day
now12.30d left
57.035 pp/day×1.00
−25%9.23d left
65.858 pp/day×1.15
−50%6.15d left
80.659 pp/day×1.41
−75%3.08d left
114.069 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.23d left
180.360 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.00% · worst -13.00% · typical |Δ| 1.25%BEARISH SESSION -25.00%BEST+1.00%11hWORST-13.00%13hTYPICAL |Δ|1.25%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-25.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -2.75% · Σ -22.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -25.00%+0.00%-25.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h-1.00% · 5h-1.00% · 5h-1.00%5h-1.00% · 6h-1.00% · 6h-1.00%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h1.00% · 11h1.00% · 11h1.00%11h★ BEST-10.00% · 12h-10.00% · 12h-10.00%12h-13.00% · 13h-13.00% · 13h-13.00%13h▼ WORST0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h1.00% · 17h1.00% · 17h1.00%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h-2.50% · 20h-2.50% · 20h-2.50%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.00% · 23h0.00% · 23h·23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-1.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH13% up · 21% down · 67% flat
3 up bars · 5 down · best 1.00% · worst -13.00% · typical |Δ| 1.250%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -23.29%FINAL-23.29%MAX DD-23.67%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.7671 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.7633, 1.0000]1.00000.7633break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -23.67% · severe0%-23.67%▼ TROUGH -23.67%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -23.67%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -23.67%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.7671 (-23.29%) · max DD -23.67% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −17 (5% positive) · μ=-37.60 · σ=27.00UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -28.88 (+0.32σ vs μ)60.4230.210.00-30.21-60.42μ = -37.60-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.42-60.420.000.00-33.56-33.56-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-55.77-34.64-34.6438.2138.21-19.95-19.95-12.88-12.88-12.88-12.88-28.88-28.88-28.88-28.88v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -28.884 · range [-60.42, 38.21] · μ -37.600 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=244.9851 · σ=235.9544 · range [38.2099, 575.9444] · R²=0.009▲ RISING +109.17%σ EXTREME 96.31%LAST 101.0940575.9444441.5108307.0772172.643638.2099μ = 244.9851max 575.9444min 38.2099dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 101.09% · range [38.21%, 575.94%] · μ 244.99% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +11 / −7 (58% positive) · μ=0.053 · σ=0.249CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.348 (-1.61σ vs μ)0.4170.2080.000-0.208-0.417μ = 0.0530.4170.4170.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.1670.4170.4170.0000.000-0.123-0.1230.3880.3880.1370.1370.1370.1370.1170.1170.3640.364-0.014-0.014-0.233-0.2330.0270.027-0.208-0.208-0.220-0.220-0.348-0.348-0.348-0.348v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.348 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
121.2813
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
6.5468
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2557
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.6842
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8432
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0299
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3031
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (6 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8159
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0065
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.6168
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.492 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.06e-3 · top T=8.00h (20.7%) · top-3 cover 49.6%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.6e-32.0e-31.3e-36.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.72e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.72e-3 · 13.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.49e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.49e-3 · 11.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.62e-3 · 20.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.62e-3 · 20.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.95e-3 · 15.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.15e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.15e-4 · 6.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-3 · 10.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.31e-3 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.40e-3 · 11.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.57e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.57e-4 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.50e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.50e-4 · 3.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.18e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.18e-4 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.00e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.00e-5 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.1% energy50% by T=6.0h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=24.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 20.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.268e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3929 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 12.3 d · σ/bar 0.243pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 4.17ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0694 · n = 3929✓ n = 3929
μ per bar
-0.006pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.243pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.19pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move12d
4.17pp
σ × √295.2172552777778
Terminal variancebinary
0.0694
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
7.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.41pp · ES₉₅ 0.51pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.006pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3929
VaR 95%
0.41pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.51pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
76.9pp
peak 32.5¢ → trough 7.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
7.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
13.333
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1233
$100 wins $1233
FractionalUK
12.33 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1233.33
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 7.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.384 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.384 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.74 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.11 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
2998401951487647599946104879570449804897073856917450832908434188988033277425
NO token ID
42756805753536141978592390600745564917611989349340240303914783332767038437903
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:46:57 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:46:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c52eb5a958990524cde587842e945a35f2aa63e03c13286d1055be1823e624b7 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.0¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,106HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,665.1HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.2

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.075000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1333.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.483
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.159
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-the-winner-of-kosovoromaniaslovakiatrkiye-playoff-win-group-d-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0887611834.83bp0.1000003FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.15498810665.06bp0.66000031FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.59195268926.89bp0.99000042PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0556052586.04bp0.0500003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0370715057.14bp0.0100007PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0370715057.14bp0.0100007PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,929 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2238.85%
σ per bar = 0.016911
Mean return (annualised)
-65433.07%
μ per bar = -0.000373
Sharpe (rf=0)
-29.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
76.92%
peak 0.33 → trough 0.07 over 1753 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-the-winner-of-kosovoromaniaslovakiatrkiye-playoff-win-group-d-in-the-2026-fifa-world-cup/risk · same metrics, JSON