POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · WILL UKRAINE RECAPTURE CRIMEAN TERRITORY BY...?
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?
8.0¢
92.0¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 6.67%
realized vol (ann.)
131.59%
max drawdown
38.10%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
25.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
19.05%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
38.10%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.13
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.13
upside/downside
roll spread
0.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
6.67%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change +6.67%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
8.0¢
NO · live
92.0¢
25 ticks · last 8.00¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.402 / 1.00 bits (40%) · informative — one side favoured
YES8.0%8.0¢12.50×▬ +0.00pp
NO92.0%92.0¢1.09×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 850bp moved · peak 400bp · n=24 ticks
3ms
8.00¢ (8.00%)
92.00¢ (92.00%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$124.2k
$163.0k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 8.00¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 92.00¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.26)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁1.260right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.395mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 0.771STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
8.00¢
92.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES12.50×(8¢)NO1.09×(92¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.402 bits (40% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
07hrs
34min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0800 · expected return per side: $0.92 on YES hit · $0.08 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 6.094 pp/day
now199.32d left6.094 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.49d left7.037 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.66d left8.619 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.83d left12.189 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.93d left19.272 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
2 up bars · 1 down · best 3.00% · worst -4.00% · typical |Δ| 0.354%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0036 (0.36%) · max DD -4.00% · time-under-water 7/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 38.210 · range [-38.21, 38.21] · μ 3.084 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 57.31% · range [0.00%, 208.59%] · μ 83.47% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·3 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
115.9808
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
REJECT H₀*H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
13.5950
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0184
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.2366
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1981
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
N/An/aH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.1112
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.3099
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7567
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 22.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.362e-3
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3739 bars · effective 1752908 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 199.3 d · σ/bar 0.073pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 5.03ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0736 · n = 3739✓ n = 3739
μ per bar
+0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.073pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.36pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
5.03pp
σ × √4783.568653611112
Terminal variancebinary
0.0736
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
8.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.12pp · ES₉₅ 0.15pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3739
VaR 95%
0.12pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.15pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
38.1pp
peak 10.5¢ → trough 6.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
8.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
12.500
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+1150
$100 wins $1150
FractionalUK
11.50 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$1150.00
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.402 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.402 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
3.64 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.12 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
67011482977279466154940850972585572311207926803952896052113224614375102184687- NO token ID
72433435487515814631344400459815549868044734165082020724691045649454520502781- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 16:25:52 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 3ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 16:25:52 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
b567c12bfa70f00813a6c5043c42cec7cdbcdc820720e74b521382f82db981b9· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by...?
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.080000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
2500.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.408
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.499
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.100417 | 2552.17bp | 0.110000 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.132252 | 6531.55bp | 0.150000 | 7 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.408857 | 41107.19bp | 0.910000 | 41 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.062034 | 2245.79bp | 0.050000 | 3 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.026853 | 6643.39bp | 0.010000 | 7 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.026853 | 6643.39bp | 0.010000 | 7 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 3,739 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
1158.22%
σ per bar = 0.008748
Mean return (annualised)
3026.49%
μ per bar = 0.000017
Sharpe (rf=0)
2.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
38.10%
peak 0.10 → trough 0.07 over 713 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-ukraine-recapture-crimean-territory-by-december-31-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON