TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “airspace · israel · closes” (9 markets)
Top terms: airspaceisraelclosesiranpermanentpeace
- Israel closes its airspace by June 14?6.7¢ YES · $356.6k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 15?12.3¢ YES · $310.7k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?18.5¢ YES · $106.8k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?7.0¢ YES · $96.3k 24h
- ★ Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?14.9¢ YES · $249.5k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?10.1¢ YES · $169.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 14?16.4¢ YES · $110.1k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?21.0¢ YES · $65.9k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?26.5¢ YES · $38.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.943 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.457 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.153 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.651 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.432 | 117 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.093 | 141 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.962 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.847 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -5.99%
realized vol (ann.)
152.25%
max drawdown
28.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
19.22%
RMS drawdown
pain index
16.72%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
28.20%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.71
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.71
upside/downside
roll spread
2.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-5.99%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -5.99%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-x-hezbollah-permanent-peace-deal-by-june-30-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →