POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 15?

YES · live
78.6¢
NO · live
21.4¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
78.6¢
NO · live
21.4¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.1226 · σ=0.1693 · range [0.0250, 0.6495] · R²=0.528▲ RISING +2109.09%σ EXTREME 138.05%LAST 0.60750.64950.49340.33720.18110.0250μ = 0.1226max 0.6495min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 60.75¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 78.6%NO 21.4%YES78.6%78.60¢ · odds 1/1.27
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.749 / 1.00 bits (75%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
78.6%78.6¢1.27×▬ +0.00pp
NO
21.4%21.4¢4.67×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=8,520 · μ=355.0 · σ=809.9 · CV=2.28BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2309921,9852,9773,970μ = 3553,97050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 8520bp moved · peak 3970bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5ms
▲YES mid
78.60¢ (78.60%)
▼NO mid
21.40¢ (21.40%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$185.3k
≋liquidity $
$22.2k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.1226 · σ=0.1693 · range [0.0250, 0.6495] · R²=0.528▲ RISING +2109.09%σ EXTREME 138.05%LAST 0.60750.64950.49340.33720.18110.0250μ = 0.1226max 0.6495min 0.0250dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 60.75¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.8773 · σ=0.1694 · range [0.3505, 0.9750] · R²=0.528▼ FALLING -59.69%σ EXTREME 19.30%LAST 0.39200.97500.81890.66270.50660.3505μ = 0.8773max 0.9750min 0.3505dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 39.20¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0186 · σ=0.0780 · skew=3.86 (right-skewed) · kurt=14.90 (leptokurtic (fat tails))16128402-5.00ppbin -5.00pp · n=2 · 12.5% peakbin -5.00pp · n=2 · 12.5% peak16-0.29ppbin -0.29pp · n=16 · 100.0% peakbin -0.29pp · n=16 · 100.0% peak54.41ppbin 4.41pp · n=5 · 31.3% peakbin 4.41pp · n=5 · 31.3% peak9.12pp13.82pp18.53pp23.23pp27.94pp32.64pp137.35ppbin 37.35pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakbin 37.35pp · n=1 · 6.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.63 · kurt=13.71 · near 5 / mid 17 / far 2 · OLS slope=0.72 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.43σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=3.52)
μ MEAN12.26¢95% CI: [5.63¢, 18.90¢]
σ STD DEV16.93ppσ² = 286.654 · CV = 138.05%
med MEDIAN3.50¢Q₁ 2.75¢ · Q₃ 15.65¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 62.45pp · IQR 12.90pp (1.349σ→22.84pp)
min 2.50¢Q₁ 2.75¢med 3.50¢Q₃ 15.65¢max 64.95¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.087right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂3.524leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.52
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.77
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.69
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.177within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.088lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.781strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+5.072significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.781
H = 0.781STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.177k=2+0.088k=3+0.130k=4-0.220k=5+0.1250+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.07)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.74very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.07)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481461
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136053
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (79¢)
PRIMARY · YES78.60¢implied prob 78.60% · decimal odds 1.27×
COUNTER · NO21.40¢implied prob 21.40% · decimal odds 4.67×
78.60¢
21.40¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME185.28k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY22.21k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (79¢)|primary − counter| = 0.572 · entropy 0.749 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 78.6%NO 21.4%YES p̂78.6%H = 0.749 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.27×(79¢)NO4.67×(21¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.749 bits (75% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · MEDIUMresolves 2026-06-16 03:59 UTC
1days
08hrs
55min
1.37 days·θ = 82.944 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 78.6%)
NO →$0.00(P = 21.4%)
current: $0.7860 · expected return per side: $0.21 on YES hit · $0.79 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+0.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=16.93% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 82.944 pp/day
now1.37d left
82.944 pp/day×1.00
−25%1.03d left
95.775 pp/day×1.15
−50%16.46h left
117.300 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.23h left
165.888 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.29h left
262.292 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 39.70% · worst -7.35% · typical |Δ| 3.55%MILD BULLISH +58.00%BEST+39.70%23hWORST-7.35%19hTYPICAL |Δ|3.55%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+58.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.20%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.61% · Σ +4.85%US · 16-24 UTCμ +7.14% · Σ +57.15%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +58.00%+62.20%-0.25%0.65% · 1h0.65% · 1h0.65%1h0.10% · 2h0.10% · 2h0.10%2h0.85% · 3h0.85% · 3h0.85%3h-0.30% · 4h-0.30% · 4h-0.30%4h-1.15% · 5h-1.15% · 5h-1.15%5h0.05% · 6h0.05% · 6h0.05%6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h-0.05% · 8h-0.05% · 8h-0.05%8h-0.20% · 9h-0.20% · 9h-0.20%9h0.05% · 10h0.05% · 10h0.05%10h-0.05% · 11h-0.05% · 11h-0.05%11h-0.10% · 12h-0.10% · 12h-0.10%12h0.10% · 13h0.10% · 13h0.10%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h5.30% · 15h5.30% · 15h5.30%15h1.65% · 16h1.65% · 16h1.65%16h6.20% · 17h6.20% · 17h6.20%17h4.70% · 18h4.70% · 18h4.70%18h-7.35% · 19h-7.35% · 19h-7.35%19h▼ WORST5.95% · 20h5.95% · 20h5.95%20h5.80% · 21h5.80% · 21h5.80%21h0.50% · 22h0.50% · 22h0.50%22h39.70% · 23h39.70% · 23h39.70%23h★ BEST-4.20% · 24h-4.20% · 24h-4.20%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+57.15%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 38% down · 4% flat
14 up bars · 9 down · best 39.70% · worst -7.35% · typical |Δ| 3.550%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +65.81%FINAL+65.81%MAX DD-7.35%RECOVERYONGOING · 2 barsMAX RUN-UP+73.08%UNDERWATER14/25 (56%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.6581 · peak 1.7308 · range [0.9974, 1.7308]1.73080.9974break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.7308UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.35% · significant0%-7.35%▼ TROUGH -7.35%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -7.35%bar 20-21 · 2 bars · recovered#2 -4.20%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOING#3 -1.84%bar 5-15 · 11 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.35%)RECOVERYongoing · 6 barsTIME UNDER WATER56% of session · 14/25 bars
final equity 1.6581 (65.81%) · max DD -7.35% · time-under-water 14/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +11 / −8 (58% positive) · μ=11.11 · σ=48.49MIXED EDGELAST 37.07 (+0.54σ vs μ)99.2949.650.00-49.65-99.29μ = 11.114.364.36-10.80-10.80-14.51-14.51-57.45-57.45-43.47-43.47-33.51-33.51-63.40-63.40-36.50-36.50-49.85-49.8536.4536.4548.3248.3270.2470.2499.2999.2931.7931.7949.2649.2650.2550.2546.2146.2147.4047.4037.0737.07v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 37.071 · range [-63.40, 99.29] · μ 11.113 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=332.1741 · σ=467.4969 · range [8.0604, 1591.1229] · R²=0.601▲ RISING +2274.29%σ EXTREME 140.74%LAST 1591.12291591.12291195.3573799.5917403.82608.0604μ = 332.1741max 1591.1229min 8.0604dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.60μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1591.12% · range [8.06%, 1591.12%] · μ 332.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.181 · σ=0.180MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.379 (-1.10σ vs μ)0.5350.2680.000-0.268-0.535μ = -0.1810.0770.0770.0330.033-0.056-0.056-0.094-0.094-0.136-0.136-0.237-0.237-0.418-0.418-0.381-0.381-0.535-0.535-0.067-0.0670.0310.031-0.038-0.038-0.001-0.001-0.165-0.165-0.383-0.383-0.283-0.283-0.300-0.300-0.098-0.098-0.379-0.379v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.379 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
361.6229
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.5971
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6112
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.5940
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9898
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.0195
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9844
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.6467
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0184
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0553
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2913
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.679 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.26e-3 · top T=2.67h (17.6%) · top-3 cover 41.1%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.5e-21.1e-27.7e-33.8e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.58e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.58e-3 · 9.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.74e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.74e-3 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.57e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 7.57e-3 · 8.7% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.08e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.08e-3 · 8.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.58e-3 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.58e-3 · 4.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.07e-3 · 3.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.07e-3 · 3.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.46e-3 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.46e-3 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-2 · 11.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.00e-2 · 11.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.53e-2 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.53e-2 · 17.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-2 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-2 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.05e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 6.05e-3 · 6.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.25e-3 · 8.3% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.25e-3 · 8.3% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.67h#2T=2.40h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.67h (freq 0.375) · concentrates 17.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 8.717e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 1.4 d · σ/bar 8.523pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 48.90ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2384 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+2.417pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
8.523pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
41.76pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move1d
48.90pp
σ × √32.91889555555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.2384
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
60.8¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 11.60pp · ES₉₅ 15.16pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +2.417pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.55pp · unique ratio 0.80⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
11.60pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
15.16pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
42.5pp
peak 4.3¢ → trough 2.5¢
Median step
0.55pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
78.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.272
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-367
risk $367 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.27 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$27.23
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 78.6%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.749 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.749 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.35 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.22 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
55746784087086771827568718041066357959535967490804709487680924093038852162060
NO token ID
44012958786121362868852301896134799022791468991368463141768677299924121272723
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:03:51 UTC
Snapshot age
5ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:03:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6c91e104823e0a9987ce561a8768fbcc1f133fdff35f8a1f18d47d42c94a33ea · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,784.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.25HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.24

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.599500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
650.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.759
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.778
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.645492767.17bp0.66900011FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7498722508.30bp0.85000030FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8732004565.46bp0.99900050PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.564870577.66bp0.5600004FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2118756465.81bp0.05600047FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0463239227.31bp0.00100067PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.348433
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.128965
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
42.53%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 11 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-15-20260609184136053/risk · same metrics, JSON