POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?

YES · live
81.5¢
NO · live
18.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
81.5¢
NO · live
18.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2058 · σ=0.1523 · range [0.0950, 0.6400] · R²=0.643▲ RISING +568.42%σ EXTREME 74.00%LAST 0.63500.64000.50380.36750.23120.0950μ = 0.2058max 0.6400min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 63.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 81.5%NO 18.5%YES81.5%81.50¢ · odds 1/1.23
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.691 / 1.00 bits (69%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
81.5%81.5¢1.23×▬ +0.00pp
NO
18.5%18.5¢5.41×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=6,200 · μ=258.3 · σ=654.7 · CV=2.53BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2308001,6002,4003,200μ = 2583,20050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 6200bp moved · peak 3200bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4ms
▲YES mid
81.50¢ (81.50%)
▼NO mid
18.50¢ (18.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$82.3k
≋liquidity $
$7.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2058 · σ=0.1523 · range [0.0950, 0.6400] · R²=0.643▲ RISING +568.42%σ EXTREME 74.00%LAST 0.63500.64000.50380.36750.23120.0950μ = 0.2058max 0.6400min 0.0950dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 63.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7942 · σ=0.1523 · range [0.3600, 0.9050] · R²=0.643▼ FALLING -59.67%σ EXTREME 19.17%LAST 0.36500.90500.76880.63250.49620.3600μ = 0.7942max 0.9050min 0.3600dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.64μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 36.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0241 · σ=0.0617 · skew=3.86 (right-skewed) · kurt=14.53 (leptokurtic (fat tails))1814950180.17ppbin 0.17pp · n=18 · 100.0% peakbin 0.17pp · n=18 · 100.0% peak33.52ppbin 3.52pp · n=3 · 16.7% peakbin 3.52pp · n=3 · 16.7% peak26.87ppbin 6.87pp · n=2 · 11.1% peakbin 6.87pp · n=2 · 11.1% peak10.22pp13.57pp16.93pp20.27pp23.63pp26.97pp130.33ppbin 30.33pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakbin 30.33pp · n=1 · 5.6% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=3.93 · kurt=14.95 · near 6 / mid 15 / far 3 · OLS slope=0.67 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALTHIN LOWER TAIL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+2.52σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=2.31)
μ MEAN20.58¢95% CI: [14.61¢, 26.55¢]
σ STD DEV15.23ppσ² = 231.910 · CV = 74.00%
med MEDIAN13.00¢Q₁ 11.00¢ · Q₃ 25.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 54.50pp · IQR 14.50pp (1.349σ→20.54pp)
min 9.50¢Q₁ 11.00¢med 13.00¢Q₃ 25.50¢max 64.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.755right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂2.305leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.50
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.42
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.58
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.136within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.041lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.714strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+6.441significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.714
H = 0.714STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.136k=2-0.041k=3+0.145k=4+0.024k=5-0.0350+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481462
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136054
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS YES (82¢)
PRIMARY · YES81.50¢implied prob 81.50% · decimal odds 1.23×
COUNTER · NO18.50¢implied prob 18.50% · decimal odds 5.41×
81.50¢
18.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME82.25k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY7.32k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS YES (82¢)|primary − counter| = 0.630 · entropy 0.691 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 81.5%NO 18.5%YES p̂81.5%H = 0.691 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.23×(82¢)NO5.41×(19¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.691 bits (69% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-01 03:59 UTC
16days
08hrs
55min
16.37 days·θ = 74.605 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 81.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 18.5%)
current: $0.8150 · expected return per side: $0.19 on YES hit · $0.81 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+8.2dRESOLVESP projection · σ=15.23% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 74.605 pp/day
now16.37d left
74.605 pp/day×1.00
−25%12.28d left
86.146 pp/day×1.15
−50%8.19d left
105.507 pp/day×1.41
−75%4.09d left
149.209 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.64d left
235.920 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 32.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 2.58%MILD BULLISH +54.00%BEST+32.00%23hWORST-1.50%22hTYPICAL |Δ|2.58%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+54.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.14% · Σ +1.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.63% · Σ +5.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ +6.06% · Σ +48.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +54.00%+54.50%0.00%0.50% · 1h0.50% · 1h0.50%1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h0.50% · 3h0.50% · 3h0.50%3h-0.50% · 4h-0.50% · 4h-0.50%4h0.50% · 5h0.50% · 5h0.50%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h-1.00% · 7h-1.00% · 7h-1.00%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h2.50% · 10h2.50% · 10h2.50%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-0.50% · 14h-0.50% · 14h-0.50%14h3.00% · 15h3.00% · 15h3.00%15h7.50% · 16h7.50% · 16h7.50%16h2.50% · 17h2.50% · 17h2.50%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h1.50% · 19h1.50% · 19h1.50%19h6.00% · 20h6.00% · 20h6.00%20h0.50% · 21h0.50% · 21h0.50%21h-1.50% · 22h-1.50% · 22h-1.50%22h▼ WORST32.00% · 23h32.00% · 23h32.00%23h★ BEST-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+48.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 1BREADTH50% up · 21% down · 29% flat
12 up bars · 5 down · best 32.00% · worst -1.50% · typical |Δ| 2.583%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSTRONG PROFIT +63.52% · SHALLOW DDFINAL+63.52%MAX DD-1.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 1 barsMAX RUN-UP+64.34%UNDERWATER9/25 (36%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.6352 · peak 1.6434 · range [1.0000, 1.6434]1.64341.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.6434UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.50% · moderate0%-1.50%▼ TROUGH -1.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -1.50%bar 23-23 · 1 bars · recovered#2 -1.00%bar 5-10 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -0.50%bar 25-25 · 1 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER36% of session · 9/25 bars
final equity 1.6352 (63.52%) · max DD -1.50% · time-under-water 9/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +17 / −2 (89% positive) · μ=43.17 · σ=34.20PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 46.17 (+0.09σ vs μ)113.4756.740.00-56.74-113.47μ = 43.1760.4260.4210.6010.60-13.34-13.34-30.21-30.2126.6926.6919.9519.9519.9519.9538.2138.2128.8828.8851.8151.8149.9149.9164.4964.4964.4964.4975.9675.96113.47113.4791.5891.5854.2454.2446.9646.9646.1746.17v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 46.166 · range [-30.21, 113.47] · μ 43.170 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=273.9969 · σ=338.8589 · range [48.3322, 1201.7620] · R²=0.516▲ RISING +2386.46%σ EXTREME 123.67%LAST 1201.76201201.7620913.4046625.0471336.689648.3322μ = 273.9969max 1201.7620min 48.3322dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.52μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1201.76% · range [48.33%, 1201.76%] · μ 274.00% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.069 · σ=0.195MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.397 (-1.68σ vs μ)0.3970.1980.000-0.198-0.397μ = -0.069-0.083-0.083-0.018-0.018-0.346-0.346-0.271-0.2710.0330.033-0.064-0.064-0.100-0.100-0.233-0.233-0.162-0.162-0.157-0.1570.2880.2880.3190.3190.2050.2050.0960.096-0.018-0.018-0.176-0.176-0.090-0.090-0.146-0.146-0.397-0.397v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.397 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
427.6855
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
1.2261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9410
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
0.9488
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9990
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1873
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2351
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7394
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0100
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3335
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1824
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.594 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=4.39e-3 · top T=3.43h (16.3%) · top-3 cover 36.4%WHITE NOISE · no dominant cyclecumulative energy ↗ (0 bins above 2× noise)8.6e-36.4e-34.3e-32.1e-30.0e+0μ noise floorperiod 24.0 · power 5.31e-3 · 10.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.31e-3 · 10.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.99e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.99e-3 · 3.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.75e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.75e-3 · 7.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.10e-3 · 7.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 4.10e-3 · 7.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.39e-3 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.39e-3 · 2.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-3 · 9.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 4.77e-3 · 9.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.58e-3 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.58e-3 · 16.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.27e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.27e-3 · 10.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.09e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.09e-3 · 9.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.69e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 4.69e-3 · 8.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.87e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.87e-3 · 9.2% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.82e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 2.82e-3 · 5.4% energy50% by T=3.4h#1 dominantT=3.43h#2T=24.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 3.43h (freq 0.292) · concentrates 16.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 5.263e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 16.4 d · σ/bar 6.674pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 132.30ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2318 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+2.250pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
6.674pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
32.70pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move16d
132.30pp
σ × √392.91904527777774
Terminal variancebinary
0.2318
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
63.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 8.73pp · ES₉₅ 11.51pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift +2.250pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.64⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
8.73pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
11.51pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
8.7pp
peak 11.5¢ → trough 10.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
81.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.227
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-441
risk $441 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.23 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$22.70
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 81.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.691 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.691 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.30 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
2.43 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
15711724989187675365322421438396587654238062599131070048873290177037292338695
NO token ID
4017912593599938484256756083871284656904019236759446983213790366897773512297
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:03:51 UTC
Snapshot age
4ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:03:51 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
625349f56166b7f229f72eadfe578b4c20749b7065fce20e864adcdd441fd436 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,784.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.25HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.24

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.640000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
625.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.313
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.359
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.7060801032.51bp0.7200005FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.7718002059.38bp0.79000011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8579013404.71bp0.99000024PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.620000312.50bp0.6200001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1316797942.52bp0.01000032PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.1316797942.52bp0.01000032PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.169621
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.079156
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
8.70%
peak 0.12 → trough 0.10 over 4 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-june-30-20260609184136054/risk · same metrics, JSON