TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “israel · airspace · closes” (11 markets)
Top terms: israelairspaceclosespermanentpeacedeal
- Israel closes its airspace by July 15?12.5¢ YES · $37.5k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by July 31?16.5¢ YES · $116.4k 24h
- Israel closes its airspace by June 30?6.1¢ YES · $99.1k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?13.5¢ YES · $28.6k 24h
- Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026?1.1¢ YES · $158.9k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?25.5¢ YES · $144.0k 24h
- Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?9.9¢ YES · $213.3k 24h
- ★ Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?10.5¢ YES · $24.3k 24h
- Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?3.9¢ YES · $103.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?100.0¢ YES · $101.0k 24h
- Will Iran close its airspace by June 30?100.0¢ YES · $193.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.642 | 159 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.430 | 159 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.997 | 159 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.127 | 159 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.902 | 159 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.893 | 159 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.152 | 115 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.045 | 115 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026 · fresh · feed 13s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
40.52%
max drawdown
8.70%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
6.74%
RMS drawdown
pain index
5.23%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.70%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1068
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-israel-x-iran-permanent-peace-deal-by-july-31-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →