POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · IRAN CLOSES ITS AIRSPACE BY...?

Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?

YES · live
36.5¢
NO · live
63.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
762.11%
max drawdown
35.96%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
17.56%
RMS drawdown
pain index
14.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
35.96%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.28
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.28
upside/downside
roll spread
14.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
440
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
36.5¢
NO · live
63.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.4736 · σ=0.0832 · range [0.3500, 0.8000] · R²=0.214▼ FALLING -19.54%σ EXTREME 17.56%LAST 0.35000.80000.68750.57500.46250.3500μ = 0.4736max 0.8000min 0.3500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 35.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 36.5%NO 63.5%NO63.5%63.50¢ · odds 1/1.57
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.947 / 1.00 bits (95%) · high uncertainty
YES
36.5%36.5¢2.74×▬ +0.00pp
NO
63.5%63.5¢1.57×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=10,350 · μ=431.3 · σ=752.6 · CV=1.75BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2107131,4252,1382,850μ = 4312,85050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 10350bp moved · peak 2850bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3ms
▲YES mid
36.50¢ (36.50%)
▼NO mid
63.50¢ (63.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$47.7k
≋liquidity $
$18.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.4736 · σ=0.0832 · range [0.3500, 0.8000] · R²=0.214▼ FALLING -19.54%σ EXTREME 17.56%LAST 0.35000.80000.68750.57500.46250.3500μ = 0.4736max 0.8000min 0.3500dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 35.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.5264 · σ=0.0832 · range [0.2000, 0.6500] · R²=0.214▲ RISING +15.04%σ EXTREME 15.80%LAST 0.65000.65000.53750.42500.31250.2000μ = 0.5264max 0.6500min 0.2000dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.21μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 65.00¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0081 · σ=0.0801 · skew=0.56 (right-skewed) · kurt=4.56 (leptokurtic (fat tails))15118401-21.38ppbin -21.38pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -21.38pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak1-16.12ppbin -16.12pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin -16.12pp · n=1 · 6.7% peak-10.87pp3-5.62ppbin -5.62pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin -5.62pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak15-0.37ppbin -0.37pp · n=15 · 100.0% peakbin -0.37pp · n=15 · 100.0% peak34.88ppbin 4.88pp · n=3 · 20.0% peakbin 4.88pp · n=3 · 20.0% peak10.13pp15.38pp20.63pp125.88ppbin 25.88pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakbin 25.88pp · n=1 · 6.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.59 · kurt=5.21 · near 6 / mid 17 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25LEPTOKURTIC · FAT TAILS (G₂=6.81)
μ MEAN47.36¢95% CI: [44.10¢, 50.62¢]
σ STD DEV8.32ppσ² = 69.198 · CV = 17.56%
med MEDIAN44.00¢Q₁ 43.50¢ · Q₃ 49.50¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 45.00pp · IQR 6.00pp (1.349σ→11.22pp)
min 35.00¢Q₁ 43.50¢med 44.00¢Q₃ 49.50¢max 80.00¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁2.339right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂6.809leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.40
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.87
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 5.41
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.278within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.064lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.640persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+2.504significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.640
H = 0.640PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.278k=2+0.064k=3-0.084k=4-0.125k=5+0.1580+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.50)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.28 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.56high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.50)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2481467
SLUGwill-iran-close-…609184136058
CATEGORYIran closes its airspace by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (64¢)
PRIMARY · YES36.50¢implied prob 36.50% · decimal odds 2.74×
COUNTER · NO63.50¢implied prob 63.50% · decimal odds 1.57×
36.50¢
63.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME47.68k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY18.05k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (64¢)|primary − counter| = 0.270 · entropy 0.947 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 36.5%NO 63.5%YES p̂36.5%H = 0.947 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES2.74×(37¢)NO1.57×(64¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.947 bits (95% of max) · high uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2027-01-01 04:59 UTC
200days
06hrs
59min
200.29 days·θ = 40.752 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 36.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 63.5%)
current: $0.3650 · expected return per side: $0.64 on YES hit · $0.36 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+100.1dRESOLVESP projection · σ=8.32% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 40.752 pp/day
now200.29d left
40.752 pp/day×1.00
−25%150.22d left
47.057 pp/day×1.15
−50%100.15d left
57.633 pp/day×1.41
−75%50.07d left
81.505 pp/day×2.00
−90%20.03d left
128.870 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 28.50% · worst -24.00% · typical |Δ| 4.31%BEARISH SESSION -8.50%BEST+28.50%21hWORST-24.00%22hTYPICAL |Δ|4.31%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-8.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.44% · Σ +3.50%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.19% · Σ +1.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -8.50%+36.50%-8.50%0.00% · 1h0.00% · 1h·1h1.00% · 2h1.00% · 2h1.00%2h-1.00% · 3h-1.00% · 3h-1.00%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h0.50% · 7h0.50% · 7h0.50%7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.50% · 9h0.50% · 9h0.50%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.50% · 12h-1.50% · 12h-1.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h3.50% · 14h3.50% · 14h3.50%14h1.00% · 15h1.00% · 15h1.00%15h6.50% · 16h6.50% · 16h6.50%16h-4.00% · 17h-4.00% · 17h-4.00%17h6.00% · 18h6.00% · 18h6.00%18h-3.00% · 19h-3.00% · 19h-3.00%19h-1.00% · 20h-1.00% · 20h-1.00%20h28.50% · 21h28.50% · 21h28.50%21h★ BEST-24.00% · 22h-24.00% · 22h-24.00%22h▼ WORST-7.50% · 23h-7.50% · 23h-7.50%23h-13.50% · 24h-13.50% · 24h-13.50%24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+3.50%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 38% down · 29% flat
8 up bars · 9 down · best 28.50% · worst -24.00% · typical |Δ| 4.313%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -15.86%FINAL-15.86%MAX DD-39.19%RECOVERYONGOING · 3 barsMAX RUN-UP+38.37%UNDERWATER17/25 (68%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8414 · peak 1.3837 · range [0.8414, 1.3837]1.38370.8414break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.3837UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -39.19% · severe0%-39.19%▼ TROUGH -39.19%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -39.19%bar 23-25 · 3 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.00%bar 18-18 · 1 bars · recovered#3 -3.97%bar 20-21 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -39.19%)RECOVERYongoing · 3 barsTIME UNDER WATER68% of session · 17/25 bars
final equity 0.8414 (-15.86%) · max DD -39.19% · time-under-water 17/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −6 (63% positive) · μ=12.79 · σ=24.29MIXED EDGELAST -18.07 (-1.27σ vs μ)50.9125.450.00-25.45-50.91μ = 12.79-11.74-11.740.000.00-30.21-30.2120.7220.7220.7220.7220.7220.72-10.60-10.60-22.83-22.8323.5523.5527.9727.9750.7150.7123.1423.1450.9150.9134.9134.9119.1619.1642.4642.462.292.29-0.90-0.90-18.07-18.07v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -18.065 · range [-30.21, 50.91] · μ 12.785 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=450.4313 · σ=581.3846 · range [35.2278, 1656.7658] · R²=0.698▲ RISING +2563.56%σ EXTREME 129.07%LAST 1656.76581656.76581251.3813845.9968440.612335.2278μ = 450.4313max 1656.7658min 35.2278dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.70μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 1656.77% · range [35.23%, 1656.77%] · μ 450.43% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.323 · σ=0.273MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.290 (+0.12σ vs μ)0.7670.3840.000-0.384-0.767μ = -0.323-0.456-0.456-0.500-0.500-0.208-0.208-0.363-0.363-0.422-0.422-0.480-0.4800.0130.013-0.083-0.0830.0330.0330.1610.1610.0640.064-0.392-0.392-0.755-0.755-0.767-0.767-0.642-0.642-0.153-0.153-0.527-0.527-0.367-0.367-0.290-0.290v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.290 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
47.5016
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7333
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5907
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.6710
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0826
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.2662
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7901
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4082
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0736
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3038
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1923
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.603 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=7.53e-3 · top T=2.40h (19.8%) · top-3 cover 44.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.8e-21.3e-29.0e-34.5e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.79e-3 · 4.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.79e-3 · 4.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.89e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.89e-3 · 5.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.59e-3 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 3.59e-3 · 4.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.99e-3 · 9.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.99e-3 · 9.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.14e-3 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 7.14e-3 · 7.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.19e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.19e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.95e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 4.95e-3 · 5.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.13e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.13e-3 · 5.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.17e-2 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.17e-2 · 12.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.79e-2 · 19.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.79e-2 · 19.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-2 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.10e-2 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.18e-3 · 6.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 6.18e-3 · 6.8% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.67h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 19.8% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 9.040e-2

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (440 bars · effective 1753200 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 200.3 d · σ/bar 0.576pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 39.92ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2318 · n = 440✓ n = 440
μ per bar
-0.035pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.576pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
2.82pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move200d
39.92pp
σ × √4806.984066388888
Terminal variancebinary
0.2318
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
36.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.98pp · ES₉₅ 1.22pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.035pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.50pp · unique ratio 0.02✓ n = 440
VaR 95%
0.98pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.22pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
36.0pp
peak 57.0¢ → trough 36.5¢
Median step
1.50pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
36.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.740
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+174
$100 wins $174
FractionalUK
1.74 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$173.97
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 36.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.947 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.947 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.45 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.66 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
52030648711200444176540243367970855995723521404548182116438085181897225017487
NO token ID
9242343838201279006013741944737839688223570358851845450290005796119830658157
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 21:59:57 UTC
Snapshot age
3ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 21:59:57 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e72306ba4e1670e56cea9d0c5988baeddc1dbfce3b2570334d24ddb45f3ba986 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDDraw99.3¢HL PREDSpain91.5¢POLYMARKETWill Netherlands win on 2026-06-14?1¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?76¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$65,304HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,718.5HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$63.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Iran closes its airspace by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.350000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1142.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.804
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.871
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.4534902956.85bp0.5000007FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6969479912.77bp0.97000028FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.86530114722.88bp0.99000030PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.330000571.43bp0.3300001FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.2602632563.92bp0.15000012FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0561508395.71bp0.01000025PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 440 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
1703.79%
σ per bar = 0.012868
Mean return (annualised)
-141346.84%
μ per bar = -0.000806
Sharpe (rf=0)
-82.96
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
35.96%
peak 0.57 → trough 0.36 over 384 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058/risk · same metrics, JSON