TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “announces · agreement · ceasefire” (20 markets)
Top terms: announcesagreementceasefireusiranextension
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?2.3¢ YES · $181.3k 24h
- Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?10.0¢ YES · $64.5k 24h
- Trump out as President by June 30?0.7¢ YES · $184.6k 24h
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?24.0¢ YES · $47.3k 24h
- US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?68.0¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?81.0¢ YES · $162.2k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?0.1¢ YES · $1.02M 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?4.1¢ YES · $2.87M 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 1411.5¢ YES · $872.4k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15?23.5¢ YES · $554.5k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 16?39.0¢ YES · $92.7k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 17?52.0¢ YES · $45.6k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?54.5¢ YES · $62.0k 24h
- US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 19?57.5¢ YES · $77.7k 24h
- ★ US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?71.0¢ YES · $368.7k 24h
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?72.0¢ YES · $254.0k 24h
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?21.5¢ YES · $337.5k 24h
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 18, 2026?38.5¢ YES · $44.2k 24h
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 21, 2026?50.5¢ YES · $28.4k 24h
- Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?58.5¢ YES · $293.2k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -6.574 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -5.117 | 66 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.028 | 66 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.985 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.826 | 134 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.097 | 68 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.821 | 134 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.802 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-30-848-925-757-129-337-165 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -7.79%
realized vol (ann.)
417.34%
max drawdown
23.39%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
11.51%
RMS drawdown
pain index
8.52%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
22.81%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.61
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.61
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-7.79%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
- 24h change -7.79%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-30-848-925-757-129-337-165/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →