POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US ANNOUNCES NEW IRAN AGREEMENT/CEASEFIRE EXTENSION BY...?

US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 18?

YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18 · fresh · feed 0s old
realized vol (ann.)
—
max drawdown
—
sharpe
—
ulcer index
—
RMS drawdown
pain index
—
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
—
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
—
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
—
implied (price-only)
bars used
0
insufficient
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%
  • insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH9ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
50.5¢
NO · live
49.5¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.6202 · σ=0.0852 · range [0.4350, 0.7650] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -20.17%σ HIGH 13.73%LAST 0.47500.76500.68250.60000.51750.4350μ = 0.6202max 0.7650min 0.4350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 47.50¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES50.5%50.50¢ · odds 1/1.98
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
YES
50.5%50.5¢1.98×▬ +0.00pp
NO
49.5%49.5¢2.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=9,000 · μ=375.0 · σ=395.4 · CV=1.05BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1702885758631,150μ = 3751,15050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 9000bp moved · peak 1150bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
9ms
▲YES mid
50.50¢ (50.50%)
▼NO mid
49.50¢ (49.50%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$64.0k
≋liquidity $
$9.4k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.6202 · σ=0.0852 · range [0.4350, 0.7650] · R²=0.280▼ FALLING -20.17%σ HIGH 13.73%LAST 0.47500.76500.68250.60000.51750.4350μ = 0.6202max 0.7650min 0.4350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 47.50¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.3798 · σ=0.0852 · range [0.2350, 0.5650] · R²=0.280▲ RISING +29.63%σ EXTREME 22.42%LAST 0.52500.56500.48250.40000.31750.2350μ = 0.3798max 0.5650min 0.2350dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.28μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 52.50¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0022 · σ=0.0519 · skew=-0.31 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.26 (mesokurtic)1085302-10.40ppbin -10.40pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -10.40pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-8.20ppbin -8.20pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -8.20pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak-6.00pp2-3.80ppbin -3.80pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -3.80pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak2-1.60ppbin -1.60pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin -1.60pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak100.60ppbin 0.60pp · n=10 · 100.0% peakbin 0.60pp · n=10 · 100.0% peak22.80ppbin 2.80pp · n=2 · 20.0% peakbin 2.80pp · n=2 · 20.0% peak5.00pp37.20ppbin 7.20pp · n=3 · 30.0% peakbin 7.20pp · n=3 · 30.0% peak19.40ppbin 9.40pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakbin 9.40pp · n=1 · 10.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.12 · kurt=-0.05 · near 16 / mid 8 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN62.02¢95% CI: [58.68¢, 65.36¢]
σ STD DEV8.52ppσ² = 72.510 · CV = 13.73%
med MEDIAN63.00¢Q₁ 59.50¢ · Q₃ 67.00¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 33.00pp · IQR 7.50pp (1.349σ→11.49pp)
min 43.50¢Q₁ 59.50¢med 63.00¢Q₃ 67.00¢max 76.50¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.433approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.589mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.53
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.88
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.109within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.153lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.761strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.991significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.761
H = 0.761STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.109k=2-0.153k=3-0.113k=4-0.201k=5+0.0220+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.63very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.99)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2508401
SLUGus-announces-new…n-by-june-18
CATEGORYUS announces new…nsion by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGBALANCED · ~50/50
PRIMARY · YES50.50¢implied prob 50.50% · decimal odds 1.98×
COUNTER · NO49.50¢implied prob 49.50% · decimal odds 2.02×
50.50¢
49.50¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME63.99k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY9.40k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWBALANCED · ~50/50|primary − counter| = 0.010 · entropy 1.000 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 50.5%NO 49.5%YES p̂50.5%H = 1.000 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES1.98×(51¢)NO2.02×(50¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 1.000 bits (100% of max) · maximum uncertainty (~50/50)
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · LOWresolves 2026-06-18 00:00 UTC
3days
04hrs
51min
3.20 days·θ = 41.716 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 50.5%)
NO →$0.00(P = 49.5%)
current: $0.5050 · expected return per side: $0.49 on YES hit · $0.51 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+1.6dRESOLVESP projection · σ=8.52% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 41.716 pp/day
now3.20d left
41.716 pp/day×1.00
−25%2.40d left
48.170 pp/day×1.15
−50%1.60d left
58.996 pp/day×1.41
−75%19.22h left
83.432 pp/day×2.00
−90%7.69h left
131.918 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 10.50% · worst -11.50% · typical |Δ| 3.75%BEARISH SESSION -12.00%BEST+10.50%9hWORST-11.50%23hTYPICAL |Δ|3.75%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-12.00%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.43% · Σ +3.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.69% · Σ -13.50%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -12.00%+17.00%-16.00%7.50% · 1h7.50% · 1h7.50%1h-3.00% · 2h-3.00% · 2h-3.00%2h-0.50% · 3h-0.50% · 3h-0.50%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h-0.50% · 6h-0.50% · 6h-0.50%6h-0.50% · 7h-0.50% · 7h-0.50%7h3.50% · 8h3.50% · 8h3.50%8h10.50% · 9h10.50% · 9h10.50%9h★ BEST-3.50% · 10h-3.50% · 10h-3.50%10h-1.50% · 11h-1.50% · 11h-1.50%11h0.50% · 12h0.50% · 12h0.50%12h0.00% · 13h0.00% · 13h·13h-2.00% · 14h-2.00% · 14h-2.00%14h-8.50% · 15h-8.50% · 15h-8.50%15h0.50% · 16h0.50% · 16h0.50%16h-10.50% · 17h-10.50% · 17h-10.50%17h-8.00% · 18h-8.00% · 18h-8.00%18h8.00% · 19h8.00% · 19h8.00%19h6.50% · 20h6.50% · 20h6.50%20h2.00% · 21h2.00% · 21h2.00%21h-0.50% · 22h-0.50% · 22h-0.50%22h-11.50% · 23h-11.50% · 23h-11.50%23h▼ WORST-0.50% · 24h-0.50% · 24h-0.50%24hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.00%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH33% up · 54% down · 13% flat
8 up bars · 13 down · best 10.50% · worst -11.50% · typical |Δ| 3.750%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -14.40%FINAL-14.40%MAX DD-29.12%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+17.48%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8560 · peak 1.1748 · range [0.8327, 1.1748]1.17480.8327break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1748UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -29.12% · severe0%-29.12%▼ TROUGH -29.12%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -29.12%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.45%bar 3-9 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -29.12%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.8560 (-14.40%) · max DD -29.12% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=-10.93 · σ=41.36MIXED EDGELAST 9.00 (+0.48σ vs μ)92.5546.270.00-46.27-92.55μ = -10.9315.3015.30-62.17-62.1719.8619.8646.5646.5630.2230.2224.7824.7828.1928.1929.9729.9712.4112.41-71.53-71.53-50.02-50.02-63.59-63.59-92.55-92.55-45.71-45.71-23.08-23.08-3.10-3.10-5.18-5.18-6.99-6.999.009.00v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 9.000 · range [-92.55, 46.56] · μ -10.927 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=477.0709 · σ=188.0924 · range [105.6835, 759.2154] · R²=0.667▲ RISING +94.23%σ EXTREME 39.43%LAST 648.8944759.2154595.8324432.4494269.0665105.6835μ = 477.0709max 759.2154min 105.6835dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.67μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 648.89% · range [105.68%, 759.22%] · μ 477.07% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.030 · σ=0.220CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.322 (+1.60σ vs μ)0.3220.1610.000-0.161-0.322μ = -0.030-0.303-0.3030.0690.069-0.104-0.1040.2650.265-0.205-0.205-0.090-0.090-0.105-0.105-0.061-0.061-0.235-0.2350.1450.145-0.165-0.165-0.307-0.307-0.246-0.246-0.305-0.3050.1170.1170.2770.2770.3080.3080.0480.0480.3220.322v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.322 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1170
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9432
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.6412
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7575
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.1246
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7057
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-0.4308
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6666
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (10 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4297
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0644
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.0933
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9257
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.028 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.88e-3 · top T=6.00h (23.5%) · top-3 cover 55.5%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)8.1e-36.1e-34.1e-32.0e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.84e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.84e-3 · 5.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.64e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.64e-3 · 10.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.92e-3 · 5.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.11e-3 · 23.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.11e-3 · 23.5% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.00e-3 · 5.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.67e-3 · 16.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.67e-3 · 16.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.62e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.62e-3 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.82e-3 · 8.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.82e-3 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.39e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 5.39e-3 · 15.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.22e-4 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.22e-4 · 1.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-3 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.02e-3 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.67e-5 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=6.00h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 6.00h (freq 0.167) · concentrates 23.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.456e-2

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 3.2 d · σ/bar 5.481pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 48.06ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.2494 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
-0.500pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
5.481pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
26.85pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move3d
48.06pp
σ × √76.86583611111111
Terminal variancebinary
0.2494
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
47.5¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 9.52pp · ES₉₅ 11.80pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.500pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 1.00pp · unique ratio 0.80⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
9.52pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
11.80pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
43.1pp
peak 76.5¢ → trough 43.5¢
Median step
1.00pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
50.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
1.980
total return per $1
AmericanUS
-102
risk $102 to win $100
FractionalUK
0.98 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$98.02
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 50.5%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
1.000 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
1.000 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
0.99 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
1.01 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
81265378457426710826537734118810698899699790464321646535692402947367120607503
NO token ID
10757754728398062555617462748670316647257845031463556506332570177075763997784
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 19:08:02 UTC
Snapshot age
9ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 19:08:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3915720d50590592199272af45b4d7bd055dd9187a23b52a8ef3d5ab485f6f51 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,768.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.65HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.36

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.475000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1052.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.007
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.026
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.5528211638.33bp0.5900008FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.6721444150.40bp0.78000023FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.8682008277.89bp0.95000038FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.3692032227.30bp0.29000010FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0521288902.58bp0.01000032PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0521288902.58bp0.01000032PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 25 bars
Realized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.096084
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = -0.009385
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
43.14%
peak 0.77 → trough 0.43 over 9 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-announces-new-iran-agreementceasefire-extension-by-june-18/risk · same metrics, JSON