TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “prime · minister · israel” (9 markets)
Top terms: primeministerisraelpoliticsethiopiaamir
- Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $24.3k 24h
- Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?3.2¢ YES · $48.1k 24h
- Will Benny Gantz be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $22.6k 24h
- ★ Will Berhanu Nega be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.5¢ YES · $5.13M 24h
- Will Demeke Mekonnen be the next Prime Minister of Ethiopia?0.6¢ YES · $61.2k 24h
- Will Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?0.8¢ YES · $40.3k 24h
- Will Gideon Sa’ar be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.5¢ YES · $39.9k 24h
- Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.9¢ YES · $39.6k 24h
- Will Yossi Cohen be the next Prime Minister of Israel?0.4¢ YES · $39.1k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.526 | 169 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.231 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.402 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.298 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.836 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.761 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.447 | 169 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.321 | 169 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-berhanu-nega-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia · fresh · feed 1s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
6.78%
max drawdown
21.43%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.43%
RMS drawdown
pain index
11.18%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
21.43%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.62
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.62
upside/downside
roll spread
2.4 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-berhanu-nega-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-ethiopia/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →