POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · POLITICS

Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?

YES · live
3.4¢
NO · live
96.7¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -12.99%
realized vol (ann.)
33.30%
max drawdown
18.67%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
13.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
12.90%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
18.67%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.85
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.85
upside/downside
roll spread
1.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-12.99%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -12.99%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH50ms⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
3.4¢
NO · live
96.7¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0351 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.0315, 0.0385] · R²=0.587▼ FALLING -18.18%σ HIGH 6.38%LAST 0.03150.03850.03670.03500.03330.0315μ = 0.0351max 0.0385min 0.0315dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 3.15¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 3.4%NO 96.7%NO96.7%96.65¢ · odds 1/1.03
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.212 / 1.00 bits (21%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
3.4%3.4¢29.85×▬ +0.00pp
NO
96.7%96.7¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=260 · μ=10.8 · σ=11.0 · CV=1.02BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1308152330μ = 113050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 260bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
50ms
▲YES mid
3.35¢ (3.35%)
▼NO mid
96.65¢ (96.65%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$40.4k
≋liquidity $
$71.1k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0351 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.0315, 0.0385] · R²=0.587▼ FALLING -18.18%σ HIGH 6.38%LAST 0.03150.03850.03670.03500.03330.0315μ = 0.0351max 0.0385min 0.0315dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 3.15¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9649 · σ=0.0022 · range [0.9615, 0.9685] · R²=0.587▲ RISING +0.73%σ LOW 0.23%LAST 0.96850.96850.96670.96500.96330.9615μ = 0.9649max 0.9685min 0.9615dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.59μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 96.85¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0002 · σ=0.0015 · skew=-0.12 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.39 (mesokurtic)975203-0.27ppbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.27pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak2-0.21ppbin -0.21pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -0.21pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak1-0.15ppbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak1-0.09ppbin -0.09pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -0.09pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak3-0.03ppbin -0.03pp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin -0.03pp · n=3 · 33.3% peak90.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=9 · 100.0% peak20.09ppbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.09pp · n=2 · 22.2% peak10.15ppbin 0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 0.15pp · n=1 · 11.1% peak0.21pp20.27ppbin 0.27pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin 0.27pp · n=2 · 22.2% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.07 · kurt=-0.15 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.48)
μ MEAN3.51¢95% CI: [3.43¢, 3.60¢]
σ STD DEV0.22ppσ² = 0.050 · CV = 6.38%
med MEDIAN3.55¢Q₁ 3.25¢ · Q₃ 3.75¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.70pp · IQR 0.50pp (1.349σ→0.30pp)
min 3.15¢Q₁ 3.25¢med 3.55¢Q₃ 3.75¢max 3.85¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.081approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.485platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.61
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.12
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.089within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.198lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.731strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.715significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.731
H = 0.731STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.089k=2-0.198k=3-0.081k=4-0.138k=5-0.1040+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.71)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.55high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.71)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID682710
SLUGwill-avigdor-lie…er-of-israel
CATEGORYPolitics
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (97¢)
PRIMARY · YES3.35¢implied prob 3.35% · decimal odds 29.85×
COUNTER · NO96.65¢implied prob 96.65% · decimal odds 1.03×
3.35¢
96.65¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYACTIVE
24H VOLUME40.40k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY71.11k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (97¢)|primary − counter| = 0.933 · entropy 0.212 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHACTIVE100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 3.4%NO 96.7%YES p̂3.4%H = 0.212 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES29.85×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = -0.00%
K* full
-0.00%
½K half
-0.00%
¼K quarter
-0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.212 bits (21% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
07hrs
31min
199.31 days·θ = 1.099 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 3.4%)
NO →$0.00(P = 96.7%)
current: $0.0335 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+99.7dRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.22% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 1.099 pp/day
now199.31d left
1.099 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.49d left
1.269 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.66d left
1.554 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.83d left
2.198 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.93d left
3.475 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.30% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.11%BEARISH SESSION -0.70%BEST+0.30%22hWORST-0.30%1hTYPICAL |Δ|0.11%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.70%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.60%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.01% · Σ +0.05%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.70%+0.00%-0.70%-0.30% · 1h-0.30% · 1h-0.30%1h▼ WORST0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.00% · 3h0.00% · 3h·3h0.25% · 4h0.25% · 4h0.25%4h-0.05% · 5h-0.05% · 5h-0.05%5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.10% · 7h0.10% · 7h0.10%7h-0.10% · 8h-0.10% · 8h-0.10%8h-0.20% · 9h-0.20% · 9h-0.20%9h0.00% · 10h0.00% · 10h·10h0.10% · 11h0.10% · 11h0.10%11h-0.05% · 12h-0.05% · 12h-0.05%12h0.15% · 13h0.15% · 13h0.15%13h-0.20% · 14h-0.20% · 14h-0.20%14h-0.30% · 15h-0.30% · 15h-0.30%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h-0.05% · 17h-0.05% · 17h-0.05%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h0.00% · 19h0.00% · 19h·19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h0.00% · 21h0.00% · 21h·21h0.30% · 22h0.30% · 22h0.30%22h★ BEST-0.25% · 23h-0.25% · 23h-0.25%23h-0.15% · 24h-0.15% · 24h-0.15%24hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.05%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 2BREADTH25% up · 42% down · 33% flat
6 up bars · 10 down · best 0.30% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.108%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.70%)FINAL-0.70%MAX DD-0.70%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9930 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9930, 1.0000]1.00000.9930break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.70% · shallow0%-0.70%▼ TROUGH -0.70%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.70%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.70%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9930 (-0.70%) · max DD -0.70% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −13 (21% positive) · μ=-12.31 · σ=25.48UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -8.38 (+0.15σ vs μ)57.0928.540.00-28.54-57.09μ = -12.31-8.91-8.9142.7242.7224.9324.930.000.00-38.21-38.21-13.34-13.34-19.95-19.95-12.08-12.08-21.20-21.20-27.02-27.02-22.00-22.00-38.21-38.21-32.97-32.97-57.09-57.09-37.00-37.000.000.0030.4430.444.474.47-8.38-8.38v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -8.378 · range [-57.09, 42.72] · μ -12.306 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=13.0208 · σ=3.4487 · range [2.9597, 17.4264] · R²=0.008▲ RISING +6.32%σ EXTREME 26.49%LAST 17.426417.426413.809710.19316.57642.9597μ = 13.0208max 17.4264min 2.9597dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 17.43% · range [2.96%, 17.43%] · μ 13.02% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.148 · σ=0.207MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.213 (-0.32σ vs μ)0.5100.2550.000-0.255-0.510μ = -0.148-0.062-0.062-0.417-0.417-0.429-0.429-0.020-0.020-0.001-0.0010.0930.093-0.009-0.0090.0570.057-0.341-0.3410.1000.100-0.101-0.101-0.146-0.146-0.146-0.1460.1130.113-0.250-0.250-0.500-0.500-0.021-0.021-0.510-0.510-0.213-0.213v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.213 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.0330
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9836
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.4728
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7827
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.7053
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4356
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

REJECT H₀*

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
2.4962
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0126
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-random sign pattern (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7372
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0102
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2708
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2038
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.613 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.39e-6 · top T=8.00h (23.1%) · top-3 cover 60.2%BROADBAND · 3 CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (3 bins above 2× noise)6.6e-65.0e-63.3e-61.7e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.38e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.38e-7 · 0.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.43e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.43e-6 · 5.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.62e-6 · 23.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.62e-6 · 23.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.53e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.53e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.83e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.83e-6 · 16.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.33e-8 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.13e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.13e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.82e-6 · 20.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.82e-6 · 20.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.42e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.42e-7 · 2.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.40e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.40e-8 · 0.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.63e-6 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.63e-6 · 12.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 11.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 3.37e-6 · 11.8% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=4.80hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 23.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.867e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (3878 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 199.3 d · σ/bar 0.021pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 1.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0324 · n = 3878✓ n = 3878
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.021pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.10pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
1.42pp
σ × √4783.525365555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.0324
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
3.4¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.04pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 3878
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.04pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
20.8pp
peak 3.9¢ → trough 3.0¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
3.4%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
29.851
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+2885
$100 wins $2885
FractionalUK
28.85 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$2885.07
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 3.4%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.212 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.212 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
4.90 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.05 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
105057524965982907913786325697426001538810836564004836999292309706852745390829
NO token ID
13887896800265966487014179943559375403384011039339488276489274832989862323735
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 16:28:28 UTC
Snapshot age
50ms
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 16:28:28 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
e2b3fcd460646d3592fe50dfcbc7925d9c66005d97f11da81338b3a0572bb6eb · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.1¢HL PREDSpain89.6¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?21¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,112.5HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,666.75HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.33

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Politics

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.031500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
317.5bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.567
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.426
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0501005904.62bp0.08800026FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.20834056139.73bp0.61000061FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.630616190195.42bp0.91000092FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.0016619472.79bp0.00100025FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0011629631.23bp0.00100025PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0011629631.23bp0.00100025PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 3,878 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
791.19%
σ per bar = 0.005976
Mean return (annualised)
-6289.36%
μ per bar = -0.000036
Sharpe (rf=0)
-7.95
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
20.78%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.03 over 2680 bars

/api/asset/pm-will-avigdor-lieberman-be-the-next-prime-minister-of-israel/risk · same metrics, JSON