TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “announces · agreement · ceasefire” (20 markets)

Top terms: announcesagreementceasefireusiranextension

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (8 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31?-6.214169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 30, 2026?-6.10766▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13?-5.79468▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026?-5.70266▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Trump out as President by June 30?-4.207169▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15?-3.623134▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30?-2.986134no rejection · independent
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?-2.763169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-july-31-2026-495 · fresh · feed 0s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -8.86%
realized vol (ann.)
322.96%
max drawdown
14.29%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
3.31%
RMS drawdown
pain index
2.11%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
8.23%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.70
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.70
upside/downside
roll spread
1.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-8.86%
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 25%
  • 24h change -8.86%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-donald-trump-announce-that-the-united-states-blockade-of-the-strait-of-hormuz-has-been-lifted-by-july-31-2026-495/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →