TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “counter · strike · bo3” (21 markets)
Top terms: counterstrikebo3iemcolognemajor
- Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs66.5¢ YES · $25.1k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs40.5¢ YES · $442.8k 24h
- Counter-Strike: ECHO vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs33.5¢ YES · $25.3k 24h
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs78.5¢ YES · $144.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs CYBERSHOKE Esports - Map 2 Winner0.1¢ YES · $58.7k 24h
- Counter-Strike: GenOne vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs32.5¢ YES · $40.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Infinite vs Walczaki (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs0.1¢ YES · $18.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs INOX Division (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs62.5¢ YES · $31.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs62.0¢ YES · $116.2k 24h
- Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B100.0¢ YES · $38.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffs0.1¢ YES · $160.9k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK - Map 2 Winner0.1¢ YES · $58.4k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs57.5¢ YES · $357.7k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner52.5¢ YES · $24.0k 24h
- Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner59.5¢ YES · $18.8k 24h
- Counter-Strike: xept vs Clutchain (BO3) - United21 Group B25.0¢ YES · $16.9k 24h
- Will Aurora win IEM Cologne Major 2026?11.0¢ YES · $125.9k 24h
- Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026?28.5¢ YES · $181.1k 24h
- ★ Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026?21.8¢ YES · $66.6k 24h
- Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026?55.5¢ YES · $22.8k 24h
- Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026?35.3¢ YES · $239.4k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (2 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -3.023 | 39 | no rejection · independent | |
| -1.761 | 31 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-furia-win-iem-cologne-major-2026 · fresh · feed 5s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
49.49%
max drawdown
4.41%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
2.04%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.67%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
4.26%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.86
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.86
upside/downside
roll spread
0.2 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
944
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-furia-win-iem-cologne-major-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →