TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket

Related to Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.

§1 · Topic basket · “spain · cabo · verde” (7 markets)

Top terms: spaincaboverdefifacupworld

§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (6 pairs tested)

For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.

Peert-statnVerdict
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 2.5-3.571111▲ cointegrated · pair candidate
Will Spain reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?-2.028169no rejection · independent
Spread: Spain (-2.5)-2.016169no rejection · independent
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15?-1.752169no rejection · independent
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?-1.469169no rejection · independent
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15?-1.272169no rejection · independent

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963 · fresh · feed 7s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
2.96%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
—
upside/downside
roll spread
0.1 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →