POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · SPORTS
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
16.7¢
83.4¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963 · fresh · feed 14s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.19%
max drawdown
0.60%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.49%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.41%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.60%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
16.7¢
NO · live
83.4¢
25 ticks · last 16.65¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.650 / 1.00 bits (65%) · moderate uncertainty
YES16.7%16.7¢6.01×▬ +0.00pp
NO83.4%83.4¢1.20×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 30bp moved · peak 10bp · n=24 ticks
13.6s
16.65¢ (16.65%)
83.35¢ (83.35%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$1.8M
$7.0M
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 16.65¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 83.35¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.62)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.370approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.618platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.008STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
16.65¢
83.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES6.01×(17¢)NO1.20×(83¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.650 bits (65% of max) · moderate uncertainty
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-07-20 00:00 UTC
35days
14hrs
13min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.1665 · expected return per side: $0.83 on YES hit · $0.17 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.424 pp/day
now35.59d left0.424 pp/day×1.00
−25%26.69d left0.490 pp/day×1.15
−50%17.80d left0.600 pp/day×1.41
−75%8.90d left0.849 pp/day×2.00
−90%3.56d left1.342 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
1 up bars · 2 down · best 0.10% · worst -0.10% · typical |Δ| 0.013%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 0.9990 (-0.10%) · max DD -0.20% · time-under-water 13/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 38.210 · range [-60.42, 38.21] · μ -12.719 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 3.82% · range [0.00%, 4.83%] · μ 2.63% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
2 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·3 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
41.8807
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.0291
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6981
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-1.1894
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6775
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
N/An/aH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
—
p-VALUE (log scale)
—
KPSS (μ stationarity)
REJECT H₀*H₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.6236
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0205
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
1.0089
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3130
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 22.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.667e-6
▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2556 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 35.6 d · σ/bar 0.003pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.10ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1388 · n = 2556✓ n = 2556
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.003pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.02pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move36d
0.10pp
σ × √854.2190838888889
Terminal variancebinary
0.1388
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
16.7¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.01pp · ES₉₅ 0.01pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2556
VaR 95%
0.01pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.01pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
1.2pp
peak 16.8¢ → trough 16.6¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
16.7%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
6.006
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+501
$100 wins $501
FractionalUK
5.01 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$500.60
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.650 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.650 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.59 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.26 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
4394372887385518214471608448209527405727552777602031099972143344338178308080- NO token ID
112680630004798425069810935278212000865453267506345451433803052322987302357330- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 09:46:37 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 13.6s
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 09:46:51 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
015f8db52c2bcab4353643d5b3158b7249bbd40c06bc077d8928d4d3ed63fe54· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.2¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,549HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,676.7HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.47
Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Sports
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$13.08K
bid $9.07K · ask $4.01K
Mid price
0.166500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
60.1bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.194
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.442
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.167000 | 30.03bp | 0.167000 | 1 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.167617 | 67.11bp | 0.169000 | 3 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.169509 | 180.75bp | 0.176000 | 10 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.166000 | 30.03bp | 0.166000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.165906 | 35.67bp | 0.165000 | 2 | FILLED |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.164294 | 132.49bp | 0.164000 | 3 | FILLED |
Risk metrics
▸ sovereign store · 2,556 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75MRealized vol (annualised)
27.28%
σ per bar = 0.000206
Mean return (annualised)
-410.80%
μ per bar = -0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
-15.06
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
1.19%
peak 0.17 → trough 0.17 over 610 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-spain-win-the-2026-fifa-world-cup-963/risk · same metrics, JSON