TF-IDF basket · Engle-Granger pairs · Polymarket
Related to Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
Markets in the same TF-IDF topic cluster, with a 7-day Engle-Granger cointegration screen against each peer. Pairs with t-statistic below −3.34 reject the null of no cointegration at the 5% level — meaning the two markets share a stationary spread useful for relative-value trades.
§1 · Topic basket · “fed · economics · interest” (8 markets)
Top terms: fedeconomicsinterestratesratebps
- Fed rate hike in 2026?65.5¢ YES · $64.6k 24h
- Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?3.6¢ YES · $24.7k 24h
- Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?0.6¢ YES · $21.2k 24h
- ★ Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?1.5¢ YES · $118.6k 24h
- Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.5¢ YES · $106.8k 24h
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?24.9¢ YES · $74.9k 24h
- Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?0.5¢ YES · $109.7k 24h
- Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?74.5¢ YES · $130.3k 24h
§2 · Engle-Granger cointegration screen (7 pairs tested)
For each peer, 7d aligned series are regressed; the residuals are tested for a unit root (ADF). Reject H₀ (no cointegration) at 5% when t < −3.34. Cointegrated pairs share a stationary spread — candidates for pairs / basket trades.
| Peer | t-stat | n | Verdict |
|---|---|---|---|
| -4.263 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.129 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -4.114 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -3.684 | 168 | ▲ cointegrated · pair candidate | |
| -2.676 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.583 | 168 | no rejection · independent | |
| -2.478 | 168 | no rejection · independent |
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting · fresh · feed 12s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
4.17%
max drawdown
6.45%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
5.62%
RMS drawdown
pain index
4.90%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.45%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.00
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.00
upside/downside
roll spread
1.3 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1008
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-the-fed-decrease-interest-rates-by-25-bps-after-the-july-2026-meeting/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →