POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · ECONOMICS
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2.6¢
97.4¢
▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle
polymarket · will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026 · fresh · feed 0s old24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
0.00%
max drawdown
0.00%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
0.00%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.00%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.00%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
—
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.00
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
68
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API:
/api/m2m/pm-will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.6¢
NO · live
97.4¢
25 ticks · last 2.65¢
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.177 / 1.00 bits (18%) · informative — one side favoured
YES2.6%2.6¢37.74×▬ +0.00pp
NO97.4%97.4¢1.03×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Σ 360bp moved · peak 105bp · n=24 ticks
6ms
2.65¢ (2.65%)
97.35¢ (97.35%)
100.00%
0.000pp
$28.6k
$97.0k
25 ticks (live)
§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 2.65¢
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 97.35¢
§2 · Distribution of Δp
n=24
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.
§3 · Sample moments
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.71)
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOT
SKEWNESS · G₁0.712right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.360mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.
§5 · Time-series structure
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]
H = 1.221STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.
§6 · Microstructure
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
TWO-SIDED PRICING
2.65¢
97.35¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TEST
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITY
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.
§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis
FAIR MARKET · no edge
Probability scale (YES)
Implied decimal odds
YES37.74×(3¢)NO1.03×(97¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.177 bits (18% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.
§8 · Time decay & θ projection
⏱ URGENCY · DISTANTresolves 2026-12-31 00:00 UTC
199days
03hrs
51min
YES →$1.00
NO →$0.00
current: $0.0265 · expected return per side: $0.97 on YES hit · $0.03 on NO hit
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 2.106 pp/day
now199.16d left2.106 pp/day×1.00
−25%149.37d left2.432 pp/day×1.15
−50%99.58d left2.978 pp/day×1.41
−75%49.79d left4.212 pp/day×2.00
−90%19.92d left6.660 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.
§9 · Hourly return heatmap
8 up bars · 5 down · best 1.00% · worst -1.05% · typical |Δ| 0.150%
§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown
final equity 1.0039 (0.39%) · max DD -1.15% · time-under-water 20/25 bars
§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)
latest 38.210 · range [-40.15, 60.42] · μ 15.033 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
latest 3.82% · range [1.91%, 48.33%] · μ 24.17% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk
§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
Jarque-Bera
REJECT H₀***H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)
STATISTIC
65.4415
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
Ljung-Box(h=5)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5
STATISTIC
3.3199
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6534
Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)
STATISTIC
-2.0364
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2807
Wald-Wolfowitz runs
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random
STATISTIC
-0.7097
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4779
KPSS (μ stationarity)
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: p IS level-stationary
STATISTIC
0.1161
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
Variance ratio q=3
FAIL TO REJECTnsH₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1
STATISTIC
0.1261
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8997
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).
§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)
dominant period ≈ 4.00h (freq 0.250) · concentrates 23.3% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.213e-4
§14 · Honest position analytics
A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →
§15 · Horizon returns
Horizon 199.2 d · σ/bar 0.324pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 22.42ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0258 · n = 25⚠ low confidence · n < 100
μ per bar
+0.017pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.324pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
1.59pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move199d
22.42pp
σ × √4779.861834166667
Terminal variancebinary
0.0258
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.6¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.
§16 · Tail risk
VaR₉₅ 0.25pp · ES₉₅ 0.67pp · method empirical · drift-correcteddrift +0.017pp/bar · quantised: no · median step 0.10pp · unique ratio 0.52⊘ disabled · n < 30
VaR 95%
0.25pp
5th percentile of Δp
ES 95%
0.67pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
31.9pp
peak 3.6¢ → trough 2.5¢
Median step
0.10pp
price bucket granularity
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.
§17 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
2.6%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
37.736
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+3674
$100 wins $3674
FractionalUK
36.74 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$3673.58
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.
§18 · Binary entropy
Market entropyH(p)
0.177 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.177 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.24 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.04 bit
self-information
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.
§19 · Model-dependent surfaces
External model required
The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.
The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.
To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.
§∞ · Provenance & attestation
- Upstream (snapshot)
- gamma-api.polymarket.com
- Upstream (history)
- clob.polymarket.com
- YES token ID
72535544017897924722695722172278828562733090748474862987195303914909938482758- NO token ID
81407142104509110921187520775072626840789848613047331773172953370174825669358- Snapshot fetched
- 2026-06-14 20:08:17 UTC
- Snapshot age
- 6ms
- History points
- 25 CLOB mids
- Page rendered
- 2026-06-14 20:08:17 UTC
- Storage policy
- no persistence — fetched on every request
- SHA-256 attestation
a27fcf50dfdda1b6f143726d7b1a80331f03c5d4934b24a831c9e7b8617ecd9e· deterministic hash of source snapshot- Open data licence
- CC0 / public domain
§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more
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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Economics
Market depth
▸ live order book · Polymarket YESDepth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.026500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
377.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.759
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.944
bid-heavy top-of-book
Slippage scenarios
▸ live book walk · Polymarket YESSimulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/slippage?size=10000&side=buy
| Side | Notional | Avg fill | Slippage | Worst fill | Levels | Status |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUY | $1.00K | 0.048001 | 8113.52bp | 0.060000 | 20 | FILLED |
| BUY | $10.00K | 0.134406 | 40719.11bp | 0.900000 | 70 | FILLED |
| BUY | $100.00K | 0.592081 | 213426.73bp | 0.960000 | 77 | FILLED |
| SELL | $1.00K | 0.026000 | 188.68bp | 0.026000 | 1 | FILLED |
| SELL | $10.00K | 0.012659 | 5222.92bp | 0.001000 | 16 | PARTIAL |
| SELL | $100.00K | 0.012659 | 5222.92bp | 0.001000 | 16 | PARTIAL |
Risk metrics
▸ upstream candles · 25 barsRealized vol (annualised)
—
σ per bar = 0.116133
Mean return (annualised)
—
μ per bar = 0.006818
Sharpe (rf=0)
—
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
31.94%
peak 0.04 → trough 0.02 over 4 bars
/api/asset/pm-will-2-fed-rate-cuts-happen-in-2026/risk · same metrics, JSON