NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585-646 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.039 · f★ 5.5% · deploy 2.8% · net 3.13pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0388@ model P(YES) = 0.336
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 5.52% · g(f★) = 0.352%deploy 2.76% · g = 0.266%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.297 · EV +$90stake $690 · 2.76% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$690
2.76% of bankroll
Sharesunits
2,320
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$2,320
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$1,630
net of cost
Max losslose
-$690
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×3.36
$1 → $3.36
Risk:RewardR:R
2.36 : 1
win $2.36 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$90
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 33.6% | +$1,630 | +$548 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 66.4% | -$690 | -$458 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$90 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +3.9 pprelative edge +13.0%
Required win ratebreak-even
29.8%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
33.6%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+3.9 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.336
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
29.8%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
3.361
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+236
$100 wins $236
FractionalUK
2.36 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$236.13
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 227% · APY 742%ROI 13.0% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+13.0%
APR (simple)scaled
+227%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+742%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.59%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +3.13 pperosion 19% · break-even w/ fees 30.5%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$1,381
5.52% · g = 0.352%
Half Kelly½ f★
$690
2.76% · g = 0.266%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$345
1.38% · g = 0.156%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.118%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.211%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.349%
Recommended¼ f★
$345
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.878 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.921 bit
Δ +0.043 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.75 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.51 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0035 nat (0.0051 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.336 · CI [0.22, 0.46] · κ 61.0
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.336
Beta(20.5, 40.5)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.22, 0.46]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
61.0
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+3.9 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +8.4% · P(YES) 32.3% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+8.40%
P(YES) empiricalq
32.3%
Best pathmax
+236.1%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.24% · ruin rate 3.3%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 2.76%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.078
μ 0.34% · σ 4.4%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.124
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-2.8%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-2.8%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-9.3%
Calmar 0.03
Ruin rate≤50%
3.3%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -13.8pp · crowd gap -17.6pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-13.8 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-17.6 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 21.0% · AUC 0.772out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 21.1% ± 2.0% · Brier 0.1974 · log-loss 0.5904 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1974
lower = better · ō 0.49
BSSvs base
21.0%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0036
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0553
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5904
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.772
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
BLEEDING · PF 0.96 · expectancy -0.022R180 trades · win 44.4% · Sharpe -0.017
Total P/Lnet
-$973
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
44.4%
80 W / 100 L
Profit factorPF
0.96
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
-$5.41
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
-0.022R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$300.33 / -$250.00
ratio 1.20 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
-0.017
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+3.54 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.