POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · US X IRAN DIPLOMATIC MEETING BY...?

US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026?

YES · live
22.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585-646 · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
519.76%
max drawdown
41.34%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
26.15%
RMS drawdown
pain index
23.57%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.20%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
41.12%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.70
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.70
upside/downside
roll spread
8.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
1026
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585-646/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
22.0¢
NO · live
78.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.2640 · σ=0.1091 · range [0.0740, 0.5145] · R²=0.098▼ FALLING -14.06%σ EXTREME 41.31%LAST 0.22000.51450.40440.29430.18410.0740μ = 0.2640max 0.5145min 0.0740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 22.00¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 22.0%NO 78.0%NO78.0%78.00¢ · odds 1/1.28
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.760 / 1.00 bits (76%) · moderate uncertainty
YES
22.0%22.0¢4.55×▬ +0.00pp
NO
78.0%78.0¢1.28×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=13,460 · μ=560.8 · σ=768.6 · CV=1.37BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1108701,7402,6103,480μ = 5613,48050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 13460bp moved · peak 3480bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.4s
▲YES mid
22.00¢ (22.00%)
▼NO mid
78.00¢ (78.00%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$465.5k
≋liquidity $
$29.3k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.2640 · σ=0.1091 · range [0.0740, 0.5145] · R²=0.098▼ FALLING -14.06%σ EXTREME 41.31%LAST 0.22000.51450.40440.29430.18410.0740μ = 0.2640max 0.5145min 0.0740dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 22.00¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.7360 · σ=0.1091 · range [0.4855, 0.9260] · R²=0.098▲ RISING +4.70%σ HIGH 14.82%LAST 0.77900.92600.81590.70570.59560.4855μ = 0.7360max 0.9260min 0.4855dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.10μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 77.90¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=-0.0033 · σ=0.0863 · skew=2.35 (right-skewed) · kurt=6.16 (leptokurtic (fat tails))14117401-12.03ppbin -12.03pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin -12.03pp · n=1 · 7.1% peak4-7.10ppbin -7.10pp · n=4 · 28.6% peakbin -7.10pp · n=4 · 28.6% peak14-2.17ppbin -2.17pp · n=14 · 100.0% peakbin -2.17pp · n=14 · 100.0% peak22.76ppbin 2.76pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 2.76pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak7.69pp212.62ppbin 12.62pp · n=2 · 14.3% peakbin 12.62pp · n=2 · 14.3% peak17.54pp22.48pp27.41pp132.34ppbin 32.34pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakbin 32.34pp · n=1 · 7.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=2.20 · kurt=5.77 · near 11 / mid 12 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.87 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σΔ=+1.69σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN26.40¢95% CI: [22.13¢, 30.67¢]
σ STD DEV10.91ppσ² = 118.921 · CV = 41.31%
med MEDIAN23.25¢Q₁ 18.50¢ · Q₃ 32.95¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 44.05pp · IQR 14.45pp (1.349σ→14.71pp)
min 7.40¢Q₁ 18.50¢med 23.25¢Q₃ 32.95¢max 51.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.402approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.607mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.29
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.02
range ↔ σwide tails (range > 4σ)range / σ = 4.04
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.409negative · reversal
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.180lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.835strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+1.577fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.835
H = 0.835STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..51 SIGNIFICANT LAG · k=1
k=1 ★-0.409k=2+0.180k=3-0.033k=4-0.091k=5+0.2320+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.41 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.58)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID2413560
SLUGus-x-iran-diplom…-319-585-646
CATEGORYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (78¢)
PRIMARY · YES22.00¢implied prob 22.00% · decimal odds 4.55×
COUNTER · NO78.00¢implied prob 78.00% · decimal odds 1.28×
22.00¢
78.00¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME465.46k USD 24h
LIQUIDITY29.33k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (78¢)|primary − counter| = 0.560 · entropy 0.760 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 22.0%NO 78.0%YES p̂22.0%H = 0.760 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES4.55×(22¢)NO1.28×(78¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.760 bits (76% of max) · moderate uncertainty
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-21 00:00 UTC
0days
11hrs
57min
12.0 hours·θ = 53.424 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 22.0%)
NO →$0.00(P = 78.0%)
current: $0.2200 · expected return per side: $0.78 on YES hit · $0.22 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+6.0hRESOLVESP projection · σ=10.91% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 53.424 pp/day
now11.96h left
53.424 pp/day×1.00
−25%8.97h left
61.688 pp/day×1.15
−50%5.98h left
75.553 pp/day×1.41
−75%2.99h left
106.848 pp/day×2.00
−90%1.20h left
168.941 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 34.80% · worst -14.50% · typical |Δ| 5.61%BEARISH SESSION -3.60%BEST+34.80%10hWORST-14.50%11hTYPICAL |Δ|5.61%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.60%Σ signed ΔSTREAK▬ 0flat-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -1.88% · Σ -13.15%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +4.87% · Σ +39.00%US · 16-24 UTCμ -3.68% · Σ -29.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.60%+25.85%-18.20%-2.70% · 1h-2.70% · 1h-2.70%1h-4.40% · 2h-4.40% · 2h-4.40%2h2.00% · 3h2.00% · 3h2.00%3h-2.00% · 4h-2.00% · 4h-2.00%4h-1.10% · 5h-1.10% · 5h-1.10%5h0.10% · 6h0.10% · 6h0.10%6h-5.05% · 7h-5.05% · 7h-5.05%7h-1.85% · 8h-1.85% · 8h-1.85%8h-3.20% · 9h-3.20% · 9h-3.20%9h34.80% · 10h34.80% · 10h34.80%10h★ BEST-14.50% · 11h-14.50% · 11h-14.50%11h▼ WORST13.50% · 12h13.50% · 12h13.50%12h-4.15% · 13h-4.15% · 13h-4.15%13h-0.15% · 14h-0.15% · 14h-0.15%14h14.55% · 15h14.55% · 15h14.55%15h-9.35% · 16h-9.35% · 16h-9.35%16h-9.15% · 17h-9.15% · 17h-9.15%17h-2.20% · 18h-2.20% · 18h-2.20%18h-1.10% · 19h-1.10% · 19h-1.10%19h-1.65% · 20h-1.65% · 20h-1.65%20h-4.75% · 21h-4.75% · 21h-4.75%21h-1.80% · 22h-1.80% · 22h-1.80%22h0.55% · 23h0.55% · 23h0.55%23h0.00% · 24h0.00% · 24h·24hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+39.00%)RUNSup max 1 · down max 7BREADTH25% up · 71% down · 4% flat
6 up bars · 17 down · best 34.80% · worst -14.50% · typical |Δ| 5.608%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -12.25%FINAL-12.25%MAX DD-26.72%RECOVERYONGOING · 9 barsMAX RUN-UP+19.09%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK▬ 0EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8775 · peak 1.1909 · range [0.8304, 1.1909]1.19090.8304break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.1909UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -26.72% · severe0%-26.72%▼ TROUGH -26.72%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -26.72%bar 17-25 · 9 bars · ONGOING#2 -16.96%bar 2-10 · 9 bars · recovered#3 -14.50%bar 12-15 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsevere (max -26.72%)RECOVERYongoing · 9 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.8775 (-12.25%) · max DD -26.72% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-30.53 · σ=52.56MIXED EDGELAST -73.43 (-0.82σ vs μ)117.6258.810.00-58.81-117.62μ = -30.53-56.58-56.58-60.85-60.85-52.32-52.32-115.02-115.0224.2924.299.469.4621.0021.0021.9121.9123.5623.5639.5539.55-0.13-0.137.627.62-18.54-18.54-13.24-13.24-15.96-15.96-117.62-117.62-104.81-104.81-98.97-98.97-73.43-73.43v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -73.427 · range [-117.62, 39.55] · μ -30.529 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=839.4551 · σ=604.2482 · range [161.5359, 1647.4240] · R²=0.026▼ FALLING -16.76%σ EXTREME 71.98%LAST 173.98121647.42401275.9519904.4799533.0079161.5359μ = 839.4551max 1647.4240min 161.5359dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 173.98% · range [161.54%, 1647.42%] · μ 839.46% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +2 / −17 (11% positive) · μ=-0.253 · σ=0.291MEAN-REVERSIONLAST 0.227 (+1.65σ vs μ)0.6700.3350.000-0.335-0.670μ = -0.253-0.324-0.324-0.446-0.446-0.195-0.195-0.327-0.327-0.063-0.063-0.448-0.448-0.563-0.563-0.655-0.655-0.670-0.670-0.512-0.512-0.549-0.549-0.190-0.190-0.109-0.109-0.103-0.103-0.160-0.1600.4200.420-0.095-0.095-0.045-0.0450.2270.227v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.227 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
77.9305
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.5153
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1838
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2197
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2043
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1961
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2317
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2688
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2366
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.2498
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2114
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.620 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.30e-3 · top T=2.40h (22.2%) · top-3 cover 50.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)2.5e-21.9e-21.2e-26.2e-30.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.66e-3 · 6.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.66e-3 · 6.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.40e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.40e-3 · 4.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.56e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 6.56e-4 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.20e-3 · 2.9% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.20e-3 · 2.9% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-2 · 10.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.13e-2 · 10.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.12e-3 · 4.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 5.12e-3 · 4.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-3 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.15e-3 · 1.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.44e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 9.44e-3 · 8.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-2 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.54e-2 · 13.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.48e-2 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.48e-2 · 22.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.65e-2 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.65e-2 · 14.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-2 · 10.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.20e-2 · 10.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=2.18h#3T=2.67hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 22.2% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.116e-1

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 1752616 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.5 d · σ/bar 0.841pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 2.91ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.1716 · n = 5000✓ n = 5000
μ per bar
-0.014pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.841pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
4.12pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
2.91pp
σ × √11.957130555555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.1716
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
22.0¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 1.40pp · ES₉₅ 1.75pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.014pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.15pp · unique ratio 0.05✓ n = 5000
VaR 95%
1.40pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
1.75pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
78.7pp
peak 92.3¢ → trough 19.7¢
Median step
0.15pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
22.0%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
4.545
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+355
$100 wins $355
FractionalUK
3.55 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$354.55
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 22.0%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.760 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.760 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
2.18 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.36 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
79583890070242200157717739598472543346007998738995044663998036638454036032453
NO token ID
43993596064522976781322610957531787679823076994644392815041883867948490187557
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 12:02:32 UTC
Snapshot age
1.4s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-20 12:02:34 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
3ee4bee3a7adbd4f123925e6744ff2cc43a09043903be669629c984ccb91a6f4 · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDSpain88.5¢HL PREDEcuador86.5¢HL PREDBelgium67.7¢POLYMARKETWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?3¢POLYMARKET Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?5¢POLYMARKETWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,660HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$71.05HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,727.1

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...?

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.205500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
1313.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.099
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.132
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585-646/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.2592102613.61bp0.34000016FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.48907013799.01bp0.68000040FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.80849929343.04bp0.99000090FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1835041070.37bp0.18000011FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0248228792.10bp0.00100059PARTIAL
SELL$100.00K0.0248228792.10bp0.00100059PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
2051.05%
σ per bar = 0.015493
Mean return (annualised)
-49507.10%
μ per bar = -0.000282
Sharpe (rf=0)
-24.14
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
78.72%
peak 0.92 → trough 0.20 over 4713 bars

/api/asset/pm-us-x-iran-diplomatic-meeting-by-june-21-2026-631-919-131-645-654-454-281-531-319-585-646/risk · same metrics, JSON