NOSTRADAMUS · Position Analytics Engine
SIMULATOR Will Iran close its airspace by December 31?
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A live, interactive instrument for dissecting a single binary position. Sweep the inputs and watch every indicator recompute — payoff geometry, Kelly growth, Bayesian posterior, KL divergence, cost waterfall, Monte-Carlo equity fan, forecast calibration. Companion to the live /feed/pm-will-iran-close-its-airspace-by-december-31-20260609184136058 page.
▲ YES EDGE · +0.016 · f★ 2.6% · deploy 1.3% · net 0.81pp
§1 · Position economics
YES · Expected P/L per share +0.0156@ model P(YES) = 0.411
P/L per sharemarket pricemodel Pprofit zoneloss zone
Profit is linear in the eventual settlement price.
f★ = 2.58% · g(f★) = 0.051%deploy 1.29% · g = 0.038%
g(f)f★ optimumdeployed fgrowth zone
Underbet leaves growth on the table; overbet destroys capital. The interior maximum is f★.
§2 · The trade ticket
YES @ 0.395 · EV +$13stake $323 · 1.29% of bankroll
Deployed stakestake
$323
1.29% of bankroll
Sharesunits
818
each pays $1 if YES
Max payoutwin
$818
gross, if win
Max profitwin
+$495
net of cost
Max losslose
-$323
binary settles to $0
Payout multiple×
×2.53
$1 → $2.53
Risk:RewardR:R
1.53 : 1
win $1.53 per $1
Expected P/LE[P/L]
+$13
probability-weighted
| Outcome | P(model) | P/L | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Resolves YES (win) | 41.1% | +$495 | +$203 |
| Resolves against (lose) | 58.9% | -$323 | -$190 |
| Expected value | 100.0% | — | +$13 |
What you actually win and lose. The bottom table tabulates probability-weighted P/L by outcome.
§3 · Break-even & cushion
Cushion +1.6 pprelative edge +4.0%
Required win ratebreak-even
39.5%
price = implied probability
Model win rateP(win)
41.1%
what you forecast
Cushionedge
+1.6 pp
margin of safety
Fair pricemodel
0.411
where you think it should trade
The market price equals the win rate you must beat to make money.
§4 · Odds conversion
Implied probabilityP
39.5%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
2.532
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+153
$100 wins $153
FractionalUK
1.53 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$153.16
clean dollar framing
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Five views of the same number.
§4b · Time & annualized return
APR 69% · APY 96%ROI 4.0% over 21d · 17.4 turns/yr
Time to resolvehorizon
21.0 d
504h capital lockup
Raw ROIper resolve
+4.0%
APR (simple)scaled
+69%
ROI × 365/days
APY (compounded)if redeployed
+96%
(1+ROI)^(365/d) − 1
Daily expectedper day
+0.18%
geometric, per day held
Capital turns/yrvelocity
×17.4
how often this slot recycles
simple APRcompounded APYyour horizon
Rank positions by APR, not raw ROI. A thin edge tomorrow beats a fat edge next year.
§5 · Costs & net edge
Net edge +0.81 pperosion 48% · break-even w/ fees 40.3%
gross edgefrictionnet edgefee 0 bps · spread 1.50¢
The number that decides whether to trade.
§6 · Sizing menu
Full Kellyf★
$646
2.58% · g = 0.051%
Half Kelly½ f★
$323
1.29% · g = 0.038%
Quarter Kelly¼ f★
$161
0.65% · g = 0.022%
Flat 1%1%
$250
1.00% · g = 0.032%
Flat 2%2%
$500
2.00% · g = 0.048%
Flat 5%5%
$1,250
5.00% · g = 0.007%
Recommended¼ f★
$161
survives model error
Quarter-Kelly is the industry default — survives model error far better than full Kelly.
§7 · Information theory
Market entropyH(p)
0.968 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.977 bit
Δ +0.009 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
1.34 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.72 bit
self-information
H(p) peaks at p = 0.5 (one bit of irreducible doubt).
NOISE · D_KL(q ‖ p) = 0.0005 nat (0.0007 bit)belief ≈ market — stand down
YES contributionNO contributionbelief ‖ marketnoise
Zero KL ⇒ you know nothing the crowd doesn't.
§8 · Bayesian inference
MARKET PRICE INSIDE 95% CIposterior μ 0.411 · CI [0.30, 0.53] · κ 66.2
Posterior meanE[θ]
0.411
Beta(27.2, 39.0)
95% credible intervalHDI
[0.30, 0.53]
price INSIDE → weak edge
Concentrationκ
66.2
pseudo-obs behind belief
Disagreementvs crowd
+1.6 pp
posterior − price
market prior (dashed)model posterior95% credible bandmarket price
When the market price falls outside the 95% credible interval, your disagreement is statistically meaningful.
§9 · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode A · single position to resolution)
E[P/L] +3.2% · P(YES) 40.8% · VaR₉₅ 100.0%400 paths · 504 bars to resolution
Expected P/Lper $1
+3.16%
P(YES) empiricalq
40.8%
Best pathmax
+153.2%
Worst pathmin
-100.0%
VaR 95%5%
100.0%
CVaR 95%ES
100.0%
median path25/75 + 5/95 bandsentry pricemodel q
Logit-space mean-reverting walk + terminal flip with probability q. Answers: 'what happens to THIS one position'. Distinct from the repeated-edge fan below.
§9b · Tail risk · Monte-Carlo (mode B · repeated independent edges)
Median CAGR/bet 0.03% · ruin rate 0.0%400 paths × 120 bets · f deploy 1.29%
Sharpe / betμ/σ
0.028
μ 0.04% · σ 1.6%
Sortino / betμ/σ↓
0.034
downside-only denominator
VaR 95%5%
-1.3%
per-bet worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
-1.3%
mean tail loss
Max drawdownMDD
-3.2%
Calmar 0.01
Ruin rate≤50%
0.0%
P(equity ever ≤ 50%)
median25/75 band5/95 bandruin line
Answers a different question: 'if I could find this exact edge forever, what is the bankroll trajectory'. Compounds 120 sequential resolutions which is NOT what happens to a single position.
§10 · Base-rate & macro context
ANCHORED · supported by convictionanchor gap -12.6pp · crowd gap -14.2pp
Anchor gapmodel − base
-12.6 pp
Crowd gapprice − base
-14.2 pp
Verdictdiscipline
ANCHORED
Reference-class anchoring prevents narrative-driven blowups.
§11 · Forecast quality (synthetic ledger)
SKILL POSITIVE · in-sample BSS 22.9% · AUC 0.782out-of-sample BSS (5-fold) 22.9% ± 0.4% · Brier 0.1927 · log-loss 0.5823 · n 1600✓ n = 1600
BrierBS
0.1927
lower = better · ō 0.50
BSSvs base
22.9%
improvement over base rate
ReliabilityREL
0.0037
miscalibration · want ↓
ResolutionRES
0.0603
decisiveness · want ↑
Log lossLL
0.5823
cross-entropy
AUCROC
0.782
0.5 coin · 1.0 oracle
calibration curveROCUNC (irreducible)RES (skill, ↑)REL (miscalib, ↓)
Computed on a seeded synthetic forecast ledger. Reseed (⟳) to redraw.
§12 · Journal vitals (synthetic ledger)
BLEEDING · PF 0.94 · expectancy -0.028R180 trades · win 50.0% · Sharpe -0.026
Total P/Lnet
-$1,256
on $45,000 cycled
Win ratehit %
50.0%
90 W / 90 L
Profit factorPF
0.94
$ won / $ lost
Expectancyper trade
-$6.98
avg $ per position
R-expectancyper risk
-0.028R
in units of risk taken
Avg win / losspayoff
$236.05 / -$250.00
ratio 0.94 : 1
Sharpe / traderisk-adj
-0.026
μR / σR
Closing line valueCLV
+2.61 pp
avg edge vs close
cumulative P/Lprofitable zonered zonesynthetic · seeded from asset
The scorecard every trader checks. Synthetic ledger seeded from the asset slug — recomputes against your real fill history once wired.