HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HMSTR

HMSTR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hmstr · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -2.38%
realized vol (ann.)
190.32%
max drawdown
0.61%
sharpe
62.66
ulcer index
0.24%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.10%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.01%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
49303.57
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.61%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.50
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
19675.72
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.50
upside/downside
roll spread
7.5 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
270
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-2.38%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 43%
  • 24h change -2.38%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 60.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-HMSTR/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.1s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-2.38%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
HMSTR · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -2.38%σ NORMAL 1.17%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=456,210,218 · μ=18248408.7 · σ=11709548.5 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=13011,500,86423,001,72734,502,59146,003,454μ = 1824840946,003,45450%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 46003454 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.1s
$mark $
$0.0002
$mid $
$0.0002
◉prev-day close
$0.0002
Δ24h Δ %
-2.381%
$24h vol $
$72.17k
◐open interest $
$154.31k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.023▼ FALLING -2.38%σ NORMAL 1.17%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0002 · 24h -2.38% · range $[0.0002, 0.0002]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 17 · down 8 (68% up) · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=48%BEARISH -2.96%CLOSE 0.0002 vs OPEN 0.0002 (-2.96%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ close = 0.0002O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.59%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.59%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.59%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.59%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)-1.8%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.79%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.79%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.61%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.18%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.18%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.81%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.81%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=456,210,218 · μ=18248408.7 · σ=11709548.5 · CV=0.64STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=13011,500,86423,001,72734,502,59146,003,454μ = 1824840926,857,474 · 58.4% peak26,857,474 · 58.4% peak21,655,498 · 47.1% peak21,655,498 · 47.1% peak20,937,738 · 45.5% peak20,937,738 · 45.5% peak14,326,519 · 31.1% peak14,326,519 · 31.1% peak15,397,598 · 33.5% peak15,397,598 · 33.5% peak9,187,954 · 20.0% peak9,187,954 · 20.0% peak40,343,506 · 87.7% peak40,343,506 · 87.7% peak12,880,636 · 28.0% peak12,880,636 · 28.0% peak25,386,679 · 55.2% peak25,386,679 · 55.2% peak10,301,235 · 22.4% peak10,301,235 · 22.4% peak10,808,520 · 23.5% peak10,808,520 · 23.5% peak11,016,828 · 23.9% peak11,016,828 · 23.9% peak38,851,083 · 84.5% peak38,851,083 · 84.5% peak5,968,471 · 13.0% peak5,968,471 · 13.0% peak5,006,952 · 10.9% peak5,006,952 · 10.9% peak8,578,292 · 18.6% peak8,578,292 · 18.6% peak25,676,330 · 55.8% peak25,676,330 · 55.8% peak23,447,445 · 51.0% peak23,447,445 · 51.0% peak11,851,240 · 25.8% peak11,851,240 · 25.8% peak6,326,109 · 13.8% peak6,326,109 · 13.8% peak8,631,263 · 18.8% peak8,631,263 · 18.8% peak7,042,936 · 15.3% peak7,042,936 · 15.3% peak34,031,421 · 74.0% peak34,031,421 · 74.0% peak46,003,45446,003,454 · 100.0% peak46,003,454 · 100.0% peak15,695,037 · 34.1% peak15,695,037 · 34.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 456210218 · peak 46003454 · CV 0.64

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0021 · σ=0.0088 · skew=0.19 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.72 (mesokurtic)75420 2-165.03bpbin -165.03bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -165.03bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-134.73bpbin -134.73bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -134.73bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak-104.42bp 7-74.11bpbin -74.11bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -74.11bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak-43.81bp 4-13.50bpbin -13.50bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -13.50bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak16.81bp 647.11bpbin 47.11bp · n=6 · 85.7% peakbin 47.11bp · n=6 · 85.7% peak77.42bp 2107.73bpbin 107.73bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 107.73bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak138.03bp 1168.34bpbin 168.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 168.34bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.01 · kurt=-0.56 · near 20 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0002
Mid price
$0.0002
24h change
-2.38%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0002

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0002$95% CI: [0.0002$, 0.0002$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.17%
med MEDIAN0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$ · Q₃ 0.0002$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$med 0.0002$Q₃ 0.0002$max 0.0002$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.358approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.961mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.03
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.100406%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.107
σᵣ STD / h0.936598%σ²ᵣ = 0.877×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.33×
σ ANNUALISED87.66%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.937%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.03negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-9.00downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.01approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.40mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.90
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-879.56%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.71%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.706%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.799%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.796%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN4.14%10h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.706%VaR₉₉−1.799%ES₉₅−1.796%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 10h duration
PEAK0.02$
−4.14% drawdown over 10h
0.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +4.32% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.358 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0002
Bollinger MA
$0.0002
Bollinger lower
$0.0002

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.266within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.134lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.028strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-0.737fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.028
H = 1.028STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.266k=2+0.134k=3+0.005k=4-0.047k=5-0.1940+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.74)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.74)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$72.17k
Open interest (USD)
$154.31k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.47x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.83% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.76%BEARISH SESSION -2.41%BEST+1.83%20hWORST-1.80%12hTYPICAL |Δ|0.76%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.41%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.61%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.38% · Σ -3.02%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.00%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.41%+0.59%-3.64%0.59% · 09h0.59% · 09h0.59%09h-0.59% · 10h-0.59% · 10h-0.59%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-1.80% · 12h-1.80% · 12h-1.80%12h▼ WORST-0.61% · 13h-0.61% · 13h-0.61%13h0.61% · 14h0.61% · 14h0.61%14h-0.61% · 15h-0.61% · 15h-0.61%15h0.61% · 16h0.61% · 16h0.61%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-0.61% · 18h-0.61% · 18h-0.61%18h-1.23% · 19h-1.23% · 19h-1.23%19h1.83% · 20h1.83% · 20h1.83%20h★ BEST-1.22% · 21h-1.22% · 21h-1.22%21h0.00% · 22h0.00% · 22h·22h0.61% · 23h0.61% · 23h0.61%23h0.61% · 00h0.61% · 00h0.61%00h0.00% · 01h0.00% · 01h·01h0.60% · 02h0.60% · 02h0.60%02h1.20% · 03h1.20% · 03h1.20%03h-0.60% · 04h-0.60% · 04h-0.60%04h1.19% · 05h1.19% · 05h1.19%05h-1.79% · 06h-1.79% · 06h-1.79%06h-0.60% · 07h-0.60% · 07h-0.60%07h-0.61% · 08h-0.61% · 08h-0.61%08hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+0.61%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 46% down · 17% flat
9 up bars · 11 down · best 1.83% · worst -1.80% · typical |Δ| 0.755%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.48%)FINAL-2.48%MAX DD-4.18%RECOVERYONGOING · 23 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.59%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9752 · peak 1.0059 · range [0.9639, 1.0059]1.00590.9639break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0059UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -4.18% · moderate0%-4.18%▼ TROUGH -4.18%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -4.18%bar 3-25 · 23 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -4.18%)RECOVERYongoing · 23 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9752 (-2.48%) · max DD -4.18% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −11 (37% positive) · μ=2.57 · σ=39.40MIXED EDGELAST -16.09 (-0.47σ vs μ)104.2752.130.00-52.13-104.27μ = 2.57-30.86-30.86-58.52-58.52-30.73-30.73-30.73-30.73-15.87-15.87-25.89-25.890.000.00-8.04-8.04-16.71-16.71-7.99-7.997.997.9928.5228.5213.2413.24104.27104.2761.0361.0367.0767.078.138.13-0.00-0.00-16.09-16.09v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -16.089 · range [-58.52, 104.27] · μ 2.570 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=87.1216 · σ=22.5700 · range [42.3058, 111.8934] · R²=0.020▲ RISING +29.01%σ EXTREME 25.91%LAST 109.9950111.893494.496577.099659.702742.3058μ = 87.1216max 111.8934min 42.3058dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 110.00% · range [42.31%, 111.89%] · μ 87.12% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-0.334 · σ=0.225MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.364 (-0.13σ vs μ)0.6380.3190.000-0.319-0.638μ = -0.334-0.149-0.149-0.248-0.248-0.198-0.198-0.025-0.025-0.592-0.592-0.058-0.058-0.314-0.314-0.533-0.533-0.622-0.622-0.542-0.542-0.604-0.604-0.389-0.3890.0940.094-0.075-0.075-0.394-0.394-0.638-0.638-0.459-0.459-0.245-0.245-0.364-0.364v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.364 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1634
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9216
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
3.7384
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5899
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.2189
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2046
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5108
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6095
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0014
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.7509
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4527
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.772 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=8.43e-5 · top T=2.18h (35.0%) · top-3 cover 68.7%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)3.5e-42.7e-41.8e-48.9e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.88e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.88e-5 · 9.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.76e-5 · 3.7% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.56e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 2.56e-5 · 2.5% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.01e-4 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.85e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.85e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.53e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.53e-5 · 1.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.06e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 7.06e-5 · 7.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.40e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.40e-4 · 23.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.05e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 4.05e-6 · 0.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.12e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.54e-4 · 35.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.54e-4 · 35.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 0.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.71e-6 · 0.5% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.18h#2T=3.00h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.18h (freq 0.458) · concentrates 35.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.011e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5256972 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -1.09× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.18%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.18%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-1.09×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.7×1.5×2.2×3.0×3.7×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 4.99400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 4.99
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.00%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -4.56σ ann 418% · Sortino -1.23 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-860%-519%-179%161%502%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)418.1%Ann. vol σ-455.9%Sharpe (ann)-122.8%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-18 08:58:20 UTC
Snapshot age
4.1s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-18 08:58:24 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
2db797003b6b9821ab9f36a735aa111acdc4e03b2a926c639e5099b268580202 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$19.04K
bid $8.35K · ask $10.69K
Mid price
0.000164
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
60.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.015
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.021
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HMSTR/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00016530.40bp0.0001651FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00016530.40bp0.0001651FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000175642.24bp0.00055520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00016430.40bp0.0001641FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00016440.47bp0.0001632FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000160248.12bp0.00004915PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$456.21M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-HMSTR/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.022 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$219.46M
real volume
Sell weight
$209.89M
real volume
Net delta
$9.57M
buyers net
Imbalance
2.23%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
2.2%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-HMSTR/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.96% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-17 10:00:00Z5.0h0.000169→0.0001642.959%6
#22026-06-18 06:00:00Z2.0h0.000169→0.0001642.959%3
#32026-06-17 18:00:00Z1.0h0.000165→0.0001621.818%2

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
418.12%
σ per bar = 0.001824
Mean return (annualised)
-1906.28%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.56
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
7.91%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2754 bars

/api/asset/hl-HMSTR/risk · same metrics, JSON