HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TRUMP

TRUMP-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-trump · fresh · feed 2s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -9.21%
realized vol (ann.)
93.35%
max drawdown
2.33%
sharpe
-49.63
ulcer index
1.30%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.17%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.07%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-3554.05
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.13%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2174.84
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-9.21%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-131.72%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • 24h change -9.21%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 17.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-TRUMP/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$2.019
24h Δ · live
-9.21%
24h vol · live
$17.4M
TRUMP · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=2.1347 · σ=0.0833 · range [2.0111, 2.2462] · R²=0.834▼ FALLING -9.16%σ NORMAL 3.90%LAST 2.01892.24622.18742.12862.06992.0111μ = 2.1347max 2.2462min 2.0111dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $2.02
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.8%Short fee 50.2%SHORT FEE50.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.03% (99.97pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.015037% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=8,152,353 · μ=326094.1 · σ=240640.7 · CV=0.74STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=120259,892519,784779,6761,039,568μ = 3260941,039,568.350%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 1039568 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.5s
$mark $
$2.0189
$mid $
$2.0192
◉prev-day close
$2.2238
Δ24h Δ %
-9.214%
$24h vol $
$17.36M
◐open interest $
$10.75M
%funding (1h)
-0.015037%
%funding (yr)
-131.72%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=2.1347 · σ=0.0833 · range [2.0111, 2.2462] · R²=0.834▼ FALLING -9.16%σ NORMAL 3.90%LAST 2.01892.24622.18742.12862.06992.0111μ = 2.1347max 2.2462min 2.0111dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.83μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $2.0189 · 24h -9.21% · range $[2.0111, 2.2462]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 9 · down 16 (36% up) · range [2.0076, 2.2854] · σ=0.0833 · CV=0.04 · bodyµ=40%STRONG BEARISH -8.96%CLOSE 2.0189 vs OPEN 2.2176 (-8.96%)&#9660; CLOSE 2.01892.28542.21602.14652.07702.0076μ close = 2.1347O2.218 H2.238 L2.177 C2.223 (+0.23%)O2.218 H2.238 L2.177 C2.223 (+0.23%)O2.222 H2.256 L2.210 C2.211 (-0.49%)O2.222 H2.256 L2.210 C2.211 (-0.49%)O2.209 H2.233 L2.173 C2.198 (-0.51%)O2.209 H2.233 L2.173 C2.198 (-0.51%)O2.198 H2.236 L2.195 C2.214 (+0.76%)O2.198 H2.236 L2.195 C2.214 (+0.76%)O2.214 H2.222 L2.172 C2.192 (-1.01%)O2.214 H2.222 L2.172 C2.192 (-1.01%)O2.191 H2.267 L2.178 C2.230 (+1.81%)O2.191 H2.267 L2.178 C2.230 (+1.81%)O2.230 H2.252 L2.201 C2.207 (-1.02%)O2.230 H2.252 L2.201 C2.207 (-1.02%)O2.208 H2.285 L2.197 C2.246 (+1.73%)O2.208 H2.285 L2.197 C2.246 (+1.73%)O2.249 H2.257 L2.212 C2.225 (-1.08%)O2.249 H2.257 L2.212 C2.225 (-1.08%)O2.226 H2.252 L2.203 C2.243 (+0.76%)O2.226 H2.252 L2.203 C2.243 (+0.76%)O2.242 H2.270 L2.209 C2.209 (-1.46%)O2.242 H2.270 L2.209 C2.209 (-1.46%)O2.210 H2.237 L2.175 C2.183 (-1.23%)O2.210 H2.237 L2.175 C2.183 (-1.23%)-3.0%O2.182 H2.205 L2.086 C2.117 (-3.00%)O2.182 H2.205 L2.086 C2.117 (-3.00%)O2.116 H2.122 L2.090 C2.095 (-0.95%)O2.116 H2.122 L2.090 C2.095 (-0.95%)O2.094 H2.095 L2.063 C2.077 (-0.82%)O2.094 H2.095 L2.063 C2.077 (-0.82%)O2.076 H2.117 L2.072 C2.111 (+1.67%)O2.076 H2.117 L2.072 C2.111 (+1.67%)O2.111 H2.142 L2.036 C2.049 (-2.93%)O2.111 H2.142 L2.036 C2.049 (-2.93%)O2.050 H2.076 L2.019 C2.058 (+0.40%)O2.050 H2.076 L2.019 C2.058 (+0.40%)O2.060 H2.070 L2.052 C2.064 (+0.22%)O2.060 H2.070 L2.052 C2.064 (+0.22%)O2.066 H2.077 L2.050 C2.058 (-0.39%)O2.066 H2.077 L2.050 C2.058 (-0.39%)O2.059 H2.073 L2.035 C2.055 (-0.20%)O2.059 H2.073 L2.035 C2.055 (-0.20%)O2.057 H2.057 L2.033 C2.051 (-0.26%)O2.057 H2.057 L2.033 C2.051 (-0.26%)O2.052 H2.052 L2.016 C2.021 (-1.50%)O2.052 H2.052 L2.016 C2.021 (-1.50%)O2.019 H2.034 L2.010 C2.011 (-0.41%)O2.019 H2.034 L2.010 C2.011 (-0.41%)O2.016 H2.023 L2.008 C2.019 (+0.13%)O2.016 H2.023 L2.008 C2.019 (+0.13%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=8,152,353 · μ=326094.1 · σ=240640.7 · CV=0.74STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=120259,892519,784779,6761,039,568μ = 326094215,866.3 · 20.8% peak215,866.3 · 20.8% peak450,399.9 · 43.3% peak450,399.9 · 43.3% peak276,135.5 · 26.6% peak276,135.5 · 26.6% peak171,178.4 · 16.5% peak171,178.4 · 16.5% peak262,721.3 · 25.3% peak262,721.3 · 25.3% peak1,039,568.31,039,568.3 · 100.0% peak1,039,568.3 · 100.0% peak368,040.7 · 35.4% peak368,040.7 · 35.4% peak340,971.6 · 32.8% peak340,971.6 · 32.8% peak139,646.1 · 13.4% peak139,646.1 · 13.4% peak294,540.5 · 28.3% peak294,540.5 · 28.3% peak274,850.1 · 26.4% peak274,850.1 · 26.4% peak252,006.1 · 24.2% peak252,006.1 · 24.2% peak1,015,478.6 · 97.7% peak1,015,478.6 · 97.7% peak369,530.4 · 35.5% peak369,530.4 · 35.5% peak329,457 · 31.7% peak329,457 · 31.7% peak175,025.5 · 16.8% peak175,025.5 · 16.8% peak606,199.6 · 58.3% peak606,199.6 · 58.3% peak317,999.7 · 30.6% peak317,999.7 · 30.6% peak109,234.3 · 10.5% peak109,234.3 · 10.5% peak277,031.9 · 26.6% peak277,031.9 · 26.6% peak186,310 · 17.9% peak186,310 · 17.9% peak223,176.6 · 21.5% peak223,176.6 · 21.5% peak171,346.4 · 16.5% peak171,346.4 · 16.5% peak260,270.9 · 25.0% peak260,270.9 · 25.0% peak25,367.7 · 2.4% peak25,367.7 · 2.4% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 8152353 · peak 1039568 · CV 0.74

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0039 · σ=0.0117 · skew=-0.24 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.20 (mesokurtic)54310 2-285.63bpbin -285.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -285.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak-245.60bp-205.57bp 2-165.54bpbin -165.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -165.54bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1-125.51bpbin -125.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -125.51bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 5-85.49bpbin -85.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -85.49bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 4-45.46bpbin -45.46bp · n=4 · 80.0% peakbin -45.46bp · n=4 · 80.0% peak 2-5.43bpbin -5.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -5.43bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 334.60bpbin 34.60bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 34.60bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 274.63bpbin 74.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 74.63bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak114.66bp 3154.68bpbin 154.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 154.68bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 8 · negative 16
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.17 · kurt=-0.09 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$2.0189
Mid price
$2.0192
24h change
-9.21%
Mark–mid spread
1.49 bps
Prev-day close
$2.2238

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.76)
μ MEAN2.1347$95% CI: [2.1021$, 2.1674$]
σ STD DEV0.0833$σ² = 69.318×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.90%
med MEDIAN2.1169$Q₁ 2.0580$ · Q₃ 2.2114$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.2351$ · IQR 0.1534$ (1.349σ→0.1123$)
min 2.0111$Q₁ 2.0580$med 2.1169$Q₃ 2.2114$max 2.2462$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.065approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.756platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.21
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.73
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 2.82
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-29.79
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.400520%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.318
σᵣ STD / h1.258361%σ²ᵣ = 1.583×10⁻⁴ · CV = 3.14×
σ ANNUALISED117.78%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.258%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-29.79negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-27.38downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.18approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.19mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.92
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-3508.56%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.76%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.758%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.039%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.019%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN10.47%16h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.758%VaR₉₉−3.039%ES₉₅−3.019%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 16h duration
PEAK224.62$
−10.47% drawdown over 16h
201.11$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.10× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +11.69% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
30.3 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.208 · within band
Bollinger upper
$2.2835
Bollinger MA
$2.1165
Bollinger lower
$1.9495

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.300within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.375lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.002strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-10.756significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.002
H = 1.002STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.300k=2+0.375k=3-0.301k=4+0.248k=5-0.3680+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.76)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.30 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=10.76)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$17.36M
Open interest (USD)
$10.75M
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.61x
1h funding
-0.015037%
Funding (annualised)
-131.72%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.75% · worst -3.06% · typical |Δ| 1.05%BEARISH SESSION -9.61%BEST+1.75%19hWORST-3.06%00hTYPICAL |Δ|1.05%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-9.61%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.73% · Σ -5.87%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.29% · Σ -2.29%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.18% · Σ -1.45%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -9.61%+1.06%-10.00%-0.51% · 13h-0.51% · 13h-0.51%13h-0.62% · 14h-0.62% · 14h-0.62%14h0.75% · 15h0.75% · 15h0.75%15h-1.02% · 16h-1.02% · 16h-1.02%16h1.72% · 17h1.72% · 17h1.72%17h-1.03% · 18h-1.03% · 18h-1.03%18h1.75% · 19h1.75% · 19h1.75%19h★ BEST-0.96% · 20h-0.96% · 20h-0.96%20h0.80% · 21h0.80% · 21h0.80%21h-1.49% · 22h-1.49% · 22h-1.49%22h-1.22% · 23h-1.22% · 23h-1.22%23h-3.06% · 00h-3.06% · 00h-3.06%00h▼ WORST-1.02% · 01h-1.02% · 01h-1.02%01h-0.88% · 02h-0.88% · 02h-0.88%02h1.61% · 03h1.61% · 03h1.61%03h-2.98% · 04h-2.98% · 04h-2.98%04h0.44% · 05h0.44% · 05h0.44%05h0.31% · 06h0.31% · 06h0.31%06h-0.30% · 07h-0.30% · 07h-0.30%07h-0.17% · 08h-0.17% · 08h-0.17%08h-0.16% · 09h-0.16% · 09h-0.16%09h-1.49% · 10h-1.49% · 10h-1.49%10h-0.50% · 11h-0.50% · 11h-0.50%11h0.39% · 12h0.39% · 12h0.39%12hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+-1.45%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 5BREADTH33% up · 67% down
8 up bars · 16 down · best 1.75% · worst -3.06% · typical |Δ| 1.048%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -9.35%FINAL-9.35%MAX DD-10.61%RECOVERYONGOING · 17 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.02%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9065 · peak 1.0102 · range [0.9030, 1.0102]1.01020.9030break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0102UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -10.61% · significant0%-10.61%▼ TROUGH -10.61%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 3 total#1 -10.61%bar 9-25 · 17 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.39%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recovered#3 -1.03%bar 7-7 · 1 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -10.61%)RECOVERYongoing · 17 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9065 (-9.35%) · max DD -10.61% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-32.07 · σ=33.13UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -55.80 (-0.72σ vs μ)87.8643.930.00-43.93-87.86μ = -32.07-9.69-9.6918.5218.5213.9313.9314.4014.408.418.41-25.61-25.61-37.99-37.99-87.86-87.86-86.71-86.71-62.62-62.62-68.72-68.72-49.61-49.61-24.79-24.79-18.05-18.05-11.05-11.05-35.29-35.29-31.06-31.06-59.69-59.69-55.80-55.80v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -55.796 · range [-87.86, 18.52] · μ -32.066 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=123.3318 · σ=33.3840 · range [56.3883, 172.9962] · R²=0.128▼ FALLING -44.08%σ EXTREME 27.07%LAST 58.1911172.9962143.8442114.692385.540356.3883μ = 123.3318max 172.9962min 56.3883dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.13μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 58.19% · range [56.39%, 173.00%] · μ 123.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +3 / −16 (16% positive) · μ=-0.373 · σ=0.335MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.070 (+0.91σ vs μ)0.8650.4330.000-0.433-0.865μ = -0.373-0.705-0.705-0.778-0.778-0.865-0.865-0.863-0.863-0.677-0.677-0.429-0.429-0.038-0.038-0.051-0.051-0.094-0.0940.0780.078-0.292-0.292-0.452-0.452-0.595-0.595-0.643-0.643-0.558-0.558-0.163-0.1630.0970.0970.0010.001-0.070-0.070v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.070 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
2 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·4 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.1704
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9183
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
15.4642
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0087
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zoneserial dependence detected
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.5067
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8845
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.1020
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2705
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀**

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.8345
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0059
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.2685
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7883
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.918 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.98e-4 · top T=2.00h (46.9%) · top-3 cover 64.2%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-38.4e-45.6e-42.8e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 1.33e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 1.33e-4 · 5.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.42e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.42e-4 · 10.2% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.06e-5 · 2.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.43e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.43e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.35e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 1.35e-4 · 5.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.06e-5 · 1.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.09e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 9.09e-5 · 3.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.49e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.49e-4 · 6.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.45e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.7 · power 8.45e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.25e-4 · 5.3% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.68e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.68e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.12e-3 · 46.9% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.12e-3 · 46.9% energy50% by T=2.2h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=12.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 46.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.379e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5257847 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.001% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-38.13×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -48.41400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.021
annualized -48.41
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -42.61σ ann 112% · Sortino -33.15 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5113%-4064%-3014%-1965%-915%134%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)111.7%Ann. vol σ-4261.1%Sharpe (ann)-3315.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.001% · long-run σ = 2.236%
1.9301.9902.0492.1092.1692.228t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 12:20:34 UTC
Snapshot age
1.5s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 12:20:36 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
20b8331cc774035e42ad4e444cc576ec9191d55c95525475086953966be670f4 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$37.52K
bid $5.49K · ask $32.03K
Depth within 10bp
$127.69K
bid $33.90K · ask $93.78K
Depth within 50bp
$222.09K
bid $75.97K · ask $146.12K
Mid price
2.019200
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
3.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.315
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.639
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TRUMP/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K2.01951.56bp2.01972FILLED
BUY$10.00K2.01972.38bp2.01972FILLED
BUY$100.00K2.02066.85bp2.021615FILLED
SELL$1.00K2.01881.95bp2.01872FILLED
SELL$10.00K2.01825.07bp2.01759FILLED
SELL$100.00K2.017210.13bp2.016220PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.504e-4
-0.01504% / hr
Annualised APR
-131.812%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
2.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
2.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE131.812%2.8d27.7d
SHORTPAY-131.812%2.8d27.7d

/api/asset/hl-TRUMP/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$2.0000–$3.0000★25$8.15M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-TRUMP/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.377 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
8 / 16
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$2.47M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.46M
real volume
Net delta
$2.99M
sellers net
Imbalance
-37.66%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
37.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-TRUMP/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 7 found · deepest 7.53% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h2.2462→2.07717.528%5
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h2.1109→2.04892.937%3
#32026-06-14 09:00:00Z3.0h2.0643→2.01112.577%4

/api/asset/hl-TRUMP/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
111.75%
σ per bar = 0.000487
Mean return (annualised)
-4761.61%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-42.61
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.17%
peak 2.14 → trough 2.01 over 4699 bars

/api/asset/hl-TRUMP/risk · same metrics, JSON