HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

VVV

VVV-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-vvv · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 4.48%
realized vol (ann.)
113.37%
max drawdown
1.92%
sharpe
-5.89
ulcer index
1.05%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.96%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.08%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-633.30
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.87%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.99
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-357.73
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.99
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
634
store
spread
—
24h Δ
4.48%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-203.68%
signalLONGconfidence 47%suggested side: BUY
  • 24h change +4.48%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 30.1bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-VVV/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$14.911
24h Δ · live
4.48%
24h vol · live
$6.0M
VVV · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=14.3568 · σ=0.2429 · range [14.0430, 14.9200] · R²=0.340▲ RISING +4.43%σ NORMAL 1.69%LAST 14.901014.920014.700714.481514.262214.0430μ = 14.3568max 14.9200min 14.0430dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $14.90
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.9%Short fee 50.1%SHORT FEE50.1%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.05% (99.95pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.9%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.1%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.023251% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=429,571 · μ=17182.8 · σ=7040.7 · CV=0.41STEADY FLOWcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1108,20816,41524,62332,830μ = 1718332,830.4650%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 32830 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$14.911
$mid $
$14.914
◉prev-day close
$14.271
Δ24h Δ %
+4.485%
$24h vol $
$5.97M
◐open interest $
$22.29M
%funding (1h)
-0.023251%
%funding (yr)
-203.68%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=14.3568 · σ=0.2429 · range [14.0430, 14.9200] · R²=0.340▲ RISING +4.43%σ NORMAL 1.69%LAST 14.901014.920014.700714.481514.262214.0430μ = 14.3568max 14.9200min 14.0430dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.34μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $14.9110 · 24h 4.48% · range $[14.0430, 14.9200]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [13.9800, 14.9480] · σ=0.2429 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=44%BULLISH +2.64%CLOSE 14.9010 vs OPEN 14.5180 (+2.64%)&#9650; CLOSE 14.901014.948014.706014.464014.222013.9800μ close = 14.3568O14.518 H14.533 L14.154 C14.269 (-1.72%)O14.518 H14.533 L14.154 C14.269 (-1.72%)O14.271 H14.454 L14.218 C14.297 (+0.18%)O14.271 H14.454 L14.218 C14.297 (+0.18%)O14.299 H14.579 L14.071 C14.365 (+0.46%)O14.299 H14.579 L14.071 C14.365 (+0.46%)O14.366 H14.403 L14.160 C14.199 (-1.16%)O14.366 H14.403 L14.160 C14.199 (-1.16%)O14.206 H14.247 L14.055 C14.143 (-0.44%)O14.206 H14.247 L14.055 C14.143 (-0.44%)O14.143 H14.351 L13.996 C14.267 (+0.88%)O14.143 H14.351 L13.996 C14.267 (+0.88%)O14.265 H14.593 L14.174 C14.374 (+0.76%)O14.265 H14.593 L14.174 C14.374 (+0.76%)O14.383 H14.509 L14.269 C14.300 (-0.58%)O14.383 H14.509 L14.269 C14.300 (-0.58%)O14.303 H14.439 L14.147 C14.185 (-0.83%)O14.303 H14.439 L14.147 C14.185 (-0.83%)O14.186 H14.383 L14.021 C14.043 (-1.01%)O14.186 H14.383 L14.021 C14.043 (-1.01%)O14.041 H14.311 L13.980 C14.238 (+1.40%)O14.041 H14.311 L13.980 C14.238 (+1.40%)O14.233 H14.349 L14.200 C14.309 (+0.53%)O14.233 H14.349 L14.200 C14.309 (+0.53%)O14.309 H14.496 L14.305 C14.349 (+0.28%)O14.309 H14.496 L14.305 C14.349 (+0.28%)O14.352 H14.391 L14.220 C14.378 (+0.18%)O14.352 H14.391 L14.220 C14.378 (+0.18%)O14.375 H14.408 L14.231 C14.237 (-0.96%)O14.375 H14.408 L14.231 C14.237 (-0.96%)O14.246 H14.373 L14.189 C14.269 (+0.16%)O14.246 H14.373 L14.189 C14.269 (+0.16%)O14.281 H14.360 L14.175 C14.331 (+0.35%)O14.281 H14.360 L14.175 C14.331 (+0.35%)O14.325 H14.355 L14.157 C14.158 (-1.17%)O14.325 H14.355 L14.157 C14.158 (-1.17%)O14.158 H14.226 L14.056 C14.160 (+0.01%)O14.158 H14.226 L14.056 C14.160 (+0.01%)O14.161 H14.185 L13.980 C14.092 (-0.49%)O14.161 H14.185 L13.980 C14.092 (-0.49%)4.8%O14.093 H14.807 L14.093 C14.770 (+4.80%)O14.093 H14.807 L14.093 C14.770 (+4.80%)O14.760 H14.760 L14.461 C14.615 (-0.98%)O14.760 H14.760 L14.461 C14.615 (-0.98%)O14.624 H14.946 L14.597 C14.920 (+2.02%)O14.624 H14.946 L14.597 C14.920 (+2.02%)O14.902 H14.942 L14.736 C14.752 (-1.01%)O14.902 H14.942 L14.736 C14.752 (-1.01%)O14.747 H14.948 L14.648 C14.901 (+1.04%)O14.747 H14.948 L14.648 C14.901 (+1.04%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=429,571 · μ=17182.8 · σ=7040.7 · CV=0.41STEADY FLOWcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1108,20816,41524,62332,830μ = 1718313,050.13 · 39.8% peak13,050.13 · 39.8% peak16,494.3 · 50.2% peak16,494.3 · 50.2% peak21,301.65 · 64.9% peak21,301.65 · 64.9% peak14,204.53 · 43.3% peak14,204.53 · 43.3% peak29,283.51 · 89.2% peak29,283.51 · 89.2% peak17,407.17 · 53.0% peak17,407.17 · 53.0% peak28,307.73 · 86.2% peak28,307.73 · 86.2% peak19,201.47 · 58.5% peak19,201.47 · 58.5% peak26,242.01 · 79.9% peak26,242.01 · 79.9% peak21,204.77 · 64.6% peak21,204.77 · 64.6% peak21,849.91 · 66.6% peak21,849.91 · 66.6% peak16,296.33 · 49.6% peak16,296.33 · 49.6% peak14,373.01 · 43.8% peak14,373.01 · 43.8% peak10,470.22 · 31.9% peak10,470.22 · 31.9% peak9,227.22 · 28.1% peak9,227.22 · 28.1% peak15,608.93 · 47.5% peak15,608.93 · 47.5% peak6,449.53 · 19.6% peak6,449.53 · 19.6% peak9,699.11 · 29.5% peak9,699.11 · 29.5% peak6,549.8 · 20.0% peak6,549.8 · 20.0% peak19,846.14 · 60.5% peak19,846.14 · 60.5% peak19,282.77 · 58.7% peak19,282.77 · 58.7% peak12,870.62 · 39.2% peak12,870.62 · 39.2% peak32,830.4632,830.46 · 100.0% peak32,830.46 · 100.0% peak18,750.26 · 57.1% peak18,750.26 · 57.1% peak8,769.17 · 26.7% peak8,769.17 · 26.7% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 429571 · peak 32830 · CV 0.41

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0018 · σ=0.0122 · skew=1.74 (right-skewed) · kurt=3.75 (leptokurtic (fat tails))75420 7-96.81bpbin -96.81bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin -96.81bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 3-47.53bpbin -47.53bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -47.53bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 41.75bpbin 1.75bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 1.75bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 551.03bpbin 51.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peakbin 51.03bp · n=5 · 71.4% peak 2100.31bpbin 100.31bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 100.31bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1149.59bpbin 149.59bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 149.59bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1198.87bpbin 198.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 198.87bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak248.15bp297.43bp346.71bp395.99bp 1445.27bpbin 445.27bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 445.27bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=1.75 · kurt=4.04 · near 17 / mid 6 / far 1 · OLS slope=0.93 intercept=-0.00LEPTOKURTIC — FAT TAILSMILDLY HEAVY UPPERLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$14.911
Mid price
$14.914
24h change
+4.48%
Mark–mid spread
2.01 bps
Prev-day close
$14.271

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=1.11)
μ MEAN14.3568$95% CI: [14.2616$, 14.4521$]
σ STD DEV0.2429$σ² = 0.059 · CV = 1.69%
med MEDIAN14.2970$Q₁ 14.1990$ · Q₃ 14.3740$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.8770$ · IQR 0.1750$ (1.349σ→0.3277$)
min 14.0430$Q₁ 14.1990$med 14.2970$Q₃ 14.3740$max 14.9200$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁1.114right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.079mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.25
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.87
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.61
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=12.95
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.180579%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.138
σᵣ STD / h1.305108%σ²ᵣ = 1.703×10⁻⁴ · CV = 7.23×
σ ANNUALISED122.15%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.305%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)12.95excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)18.32strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁1.87right-skewed · heavy positive tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂5.32leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.41
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+1581.87%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.16%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.158%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.203%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.188%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN2.30%3h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.158%VaR₉₉−1.203%ES₉₅−1.188%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 3h duration
PEAK1437.40$
−2.30% drawdown over 3h
1404.30$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.04× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +2.36% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
62.8 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.992 · within band
Bollinger upper
$14.9098
Bollinger MA
$14.3824
Bollinger lower
$13.8550

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.350within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.232lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.979strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+3.440significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.979
H = 0.979STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.350k=2+0.232k=3-0.408k=4+0.182k=5+0.0460+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.35 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.44)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.97M
Open interest (USD)
$22.29M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.27x
1h funding
-0.023251%
Funding (annualised)
-203.68%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 4.70% · worst -1.21% · typical |Δ| 0.91%MILD BULLISH +4.33%BEST+4.70%03hWORST-1.21%00hTYPICAL |Δ|0.91%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+4.33%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.49% · Σ +3.90%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.59%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.13% · Σ +1.02%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +4.33%+4.46%-1.60%0.20% · 08h0.20% · 08h0.20%08h0.47% · 09h0.47% · 09h0.47%09h-1.16% · 10h-1.16% · 10h-1.16%10h-0.40% · 11h-0.40% · 11h-0.40%11h0.87% · 12h0.87% · 12h0.87%12h0.75% · 13h0.75% · 13h0.75%13h-0.52% · 14h-0.52% · 14h-0.52%14h-0.81% · 15h-0.81% · 15h-0.81%15h-1.01% · 16h-1.01% · 16h-1.01%16h1.38% · 17h1.38% · 17h1.38%17h0.50% · 18h0.50% · 18h0.50%18h0.28% · 19h0.28% · 19h0.28%19h0.20% · 20h0.20% · 20h0.20%20h-0.99% · 21h-0.99% · 21h-0.99%21h0.22% · 22h0.22% · 22h0.22%22h0.43% · 23h0.43% · 23h0.43%23h-1.21% · 00h-1.21% · 00h-1.21%00h▼ WORST0.01% · 01h0.01% · 01h0.01%01h-0.48% · 02h-0.48% · 02h-0.48%02h4.70% · 03h4.70% · 03h4.70%03h★ BEST-1.05% · 04h-1.05% · 04h-1.05%04h2.07% · 05h2.07% · 05h2.07%05h-1.13% · 06h-1.13% · 06h-1.13%06h1.00% · 07h1.00% · 07h1.00%07hTIME PATTERNAsia-led (+3.90%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 4.70% · worst -1.21% · typical |Δ| 0.910%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +4.22%FINAL+4.22%MAX DD-2.31%RECOVERYONGOING · 6 barsMAX RUN-UP+4.37%UNDERWATER18/25 (72%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0422 · peak 1.0437 · range [0.9839, 1.0437]1.04370.9839break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0437UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -2.31% · moderate0%-2.31%▼ TROUGH -2.31%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 5 total#1 -2.31%bar 8-13 · 6 bars · recovered#2 -2.00%bar 15-20 · 6 bars · recovered#3 -1.55%bar 4-6 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -2.31%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER72% of session · 18/25 bars
final equity 1.0422 (4.22%) · max DD -2.31% · time-under-water 18/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +13 / −6 (68% positive) · μ=4.48 · σ=23.52PROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 35.13 (+1.30σ vs μ)46.7923.390.00-23.39-46.79μ = 4.4814.7614.760.400.40-23.57-23.57-21.53-21.5310.3610.364.774.77-2.98-2.989.639.636.216.2132.9032.9018.5118.51-22.88-22.88-29.65-29.65-46.79-46.7927.4727.4717.0117.0127.3127.3128.0328.0335.1335.13v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 35.131 · range [-46.79, 35.13] · μ 4.479 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=110.5348 · σ=61.0653 · range [51.3508, 215.3231] · R²=0.500▲ RISING +192.32%σ EXTREME 55.25%LAST 211.9798215.3231174.3300133.337092.343951.3508μ = 110.5348max 215.3231min 51.3508dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.50μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 211.98% · range [51.35%, 215.32%] · μ 110.53% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-0.139 · σ=0.306CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST -0.682 (-1.77σ vs μ)0.6820.3410.000-0.341-0.682μ = -0.1390.1060.106-0.051-0.0510.2590.2590.3660.3660.0540.0540.0400.0400.1610.1610.0500.050-0.202-0.2020.1370.137-0.072-0.072-0.324-0.324-0.516-0.516-0.431-0.431-0.107-0.107-0.379-0.379-0.454-0.454-0.604-0.604-0.682-0.682v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.682 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
42.2755
p-VALUE (log scale)
< 0.0001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-normal · fat tails or skew present
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.8758
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0533
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.3232
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6167
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0031
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3158
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4611
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0508
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.8414
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4001
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.744 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.95e-4 · top T=2.00h (32.4%) · top-3 cover 66.4%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)7.6e-45.7e-43.8e-41.9e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 6.98e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 6.98e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.98e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 9.98e-5 · 4.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.36e-4 · 5.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.07e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.07e-6 · 0.1% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.50e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.50e-4 · 19.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 0.5% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.14e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.4 · power 6.14e-5 · 2.6% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.46e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.46e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.92e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.92e-5 · 1.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.21e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 3.21e-4 · 13.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.44e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.44e-4 · 14.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.58e-4 · 32.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 7.58e-4 · 32.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.338e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4749 bars · effective 5249102 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.44× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.41%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.41%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.44×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.4×0.8×1.3×1.7×2.1×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.29400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4748 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.29
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.04%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.06%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.93×0.96×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.07×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -4.13σ ann 944% · Sortino -4.58 · n 4748 · ⚠ capped (n=4748 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1200%-733%-267%200%667%1133%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)944.3%Ann. vol σ-413.5%Sharpe (ann)-457.6%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.002% · long-run σ = 2.236%
12.20513.59914.99416.38817.78219.177t-4748t-3957t-3165t-2374t-1583t-791t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:07 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
485c9c72ddbaedeafd5708a478dca126dd79603c0c46a1270ee8a32ba5d24170 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.92K
bid $558 · ask $2.36K
Depth within 10bp
$7.35K
bid $2.72K · ask $4.62K
Depth within 50bp
$52.74K
bid $25.64K · ask $27.10K
Mid price
14.915000
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
4.0bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.026
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
-0.241
ask-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VVV/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K14.91802.01bp14.91801FILLED
BUY$10.00K14.92748.33bp14.937011FILLED
BUY$100.00K14.941017.45bp14.958020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K14.90705.35bp14.90205FILLED
SELL$10.00K14.894313.91bp14.886014FILLED
SELL$100.00K14.886619.03bp14.878020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-2.325e-4
-0.02325% / hr
Annualised APR
-203.819%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
1.8d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
1.8d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE203.819%1.8d17.9d
SHORTPAY-203.819%1.8d17.9d

/api/asset/hl-VVV/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$14.0000–$15.0000★25$429.57K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-VVV/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.133 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$235.99K
real volume
Sell weight
$180.53K
real volume
Net delta
$55.46K
buyers net
Imbalance
13.32%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
13.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-VVV/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 6 found · deepest 2.30% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h14.3740→14.04302.303%3
#22026-06-20 00:00:00Z2.0h14.3310→14.09201.668%3
#32026-06-19 10:00:00Z2.0h14.3650→14.14301.545%3

/api/asset/hl-VVV/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,749 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
944.28%
σ per bar = 0.004122
Mean return (annualised)
-3904.28%
μ per bar = -0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
-4.13
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
18.04%
peak 15.80 → trough 12.95 over 27 bars

/api/asset/hl-VVV/risk · same metrics, JSON