HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

ADA

ADA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-ada · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.57%
realized vol (ann.)
44.65%
max drawdown
1.21%
sharpe
-51.47
ulcer index
0.52%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.42%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.03%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-4438.01
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
1.05%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.91
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-2178.66
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.91
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.57%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-33.02%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 33%
  • 24h change -1.57%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 11.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-ada/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH5.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.170
24h Δ · live
-1.57%
24h vol · live
$5.3M
ADA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1722 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1697, 0.1749] · R²=0.679▼ FALLING -2.15%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.16970.17490.17360.17230.17100.1697μ = 0.1722max 0.1749min 0.1697dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.17
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.3%Short fee 50.7%SHORT FEE50.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.01% (99.99pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.003769% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=30,795,462 · μ=1231818.5 · σ=1517137.5 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=601,548,4673,096,9354,645,4026,193,869μ = 12318186,193,86950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 6193869 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
5.0s
$mark $
$0.1697
$mid $
$0.1697
◉prev-day close
$0.1724
Δ24h Δ %
-1.572%
$24h vol $
$5.33M
◐open interest $
$17.55M
%funding (1h)
-0.003769%
%funding (yr)
-33.02%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1722 · σ=0.0013 · range [0.1697, 0.1749] · R²=0.679▼ FALLING -2.15%σ LOW 0.76%LAST 0.16970.17490.17360.17230.17100.1697μ = 0.1722max 0.1749min 0.1697dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.68μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1697 · 24h -1.57% · range $[0.1697, 0.1749]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.1696, 0.1757] · σ=0.0013 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=43%BEARISH -1.55%CLOSE 0.1697 vs OPEN 0.1724 (-1.55%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.16970.17570.17420.17260.17110.1696μ close = 0.1722O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.61%)O0.172 H0.174 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.61%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.09%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.09%)O0.174 H0.174 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.28%)O0.174 H0.174 L0.173 C0.174 (+0.28%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.26%)O0.174 H0.175 L0.174 C0.174 (+0.26%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.28%)O0.174 H0.176 L0.174 C0.175 (+0.28%)-0.9%O0.175 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.85%)O0.175 H0.175 L0.173 C0.173 (-0.85%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.76%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.76%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.05%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.05%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.02%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.02%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.24%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.24%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.173 (+0.67%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.173 (+0.67%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.66%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.66%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (+0.16%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.172 (+0.16%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.13%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (-0.13%)O0.171 H0.173 L0.171 C0.173 (+0.69%)O0.171 H0.173 L0.171 C0.173 (+0.69%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.25%)O0.173 H0.174 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.25%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.38%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.172 C0.173 (+0.38%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.61%)O0.173 H0.173 L0.172 C0.172 (-0.61%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (+0.14%)O0.172 H0.172 L0.171 C0.172 (+0.14%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.40%)O0.172 H0.173 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.40%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.27%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.27%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.04%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.171 C0.171 (-0.04%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (+0.07%)O0.171 H0.172 L0.170 C0.171 (+0.07%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.77%)O0.171 H0.171 L0.170 C0.170 (-0.77%)O0.170 H0.170 L0.170 C0.170 (+0.02%)O0.170 H0.170 L0.170 C0.170 (+0.02%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=30,795,462 · μ=1231818.5 · σ=1517137.5 · CV=1.23BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=601,548,4673,096,9354,645,4026,193,869μ = 1231818424,376 · 6.9% peak424,376 · 6.9% peak983,346 · 15.9% peak983,346 · 15.9% peak6,193,8696,193,869 · 100.0% peak6,193,869 · 100.0% peak1,397,625 · 22.6% peak1,397,625 · 22.6% peak1,803,716 · 29.1% peak1,803,716 · 29.1% peak5,825,657 · 94.1% peak5,825,657 · 94.1% peak1,102,979 · 17.8% peak1,102,979 · 17.8% peak560,008 · 9.0% peak560,008 · 9.0% peak445,647 · 7.2% peak445,647 · 7.2% peak404,836 · 6.5% peak404,836 · 6.5% peak864,096 · 14.0% peak864,096 · 14.0% peak632,126 · 10.2% peak632,126 · 10.2% peak2,087,620 · 33.7% peak2,087,620 · 33.7% peak993,885 · 16.0% peak993,885 · 16.0% peak890,400 · 14.4% peak890,400 · 14.4% peak143,106 · 2.3% peak143,106 · 2.3% peak381,173 · 6.2% peak381,173 · 6.2% peak573,881 · 9.3% peak573,881 · 9.3% peak440,228 · 7.1% peak440,228 · 7.1% peak559,275 · 9.0% peak559,275 · 9.0% peak1,220,108 · 19.7% peak1,220,108 · 19.7% peak636,634 · 10.3% peak636,634 · 10.3% peak902,834 · 14.6% peak902,834 · 14.6% peak1,275,967 · 20.6% peak1,275,967 · 20.6% peak52,070 · 0.8% peak52,070 · 0.8% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 30795462 · peak 6193869 · CV 1.23

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0009 · σ=0.0042 · skew=-0.23 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.75 (mesokurtic)43210 3-80.19bpbin -80.19bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin -80.19bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak 2-67.21bpbin -67.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -67.21bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak-54.23bp 1-41.25bpbin -41.25bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin -41.25bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 2-28.27bpbin -28.27bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -28.27bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 2-15.29bpbin -15.29bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin -15.29bp · n=2 · 50.0% peak 4-2.31bpbin -2.31bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin -2.31bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 410.67bpbin 10.67bp · n=4 · 100.0% peakbin 10.67bp · n=4 · 100.0% peak 323.65bpbin 23.65bp · n=3 · 75.0% peakbin 23.65bp · n=3 · 75.0% peak36.64bp 149.62bpbin 49.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peakbin 49.62bp · n=1 · 25.0% peak 262.60bpbin 62.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakbin 62.60bp · n=2 · 50.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 11 · negative 13
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=-0.65 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1697
Mid price
$0.1697
24h change
-1.57%
Mark–mid spread
2.06 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1724

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.1722$95% CI: [0.1717$, 0.1727$]
σ STD DEV0.0013$σ² = 0.017×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.76%
med MEDIAN0.1721$Q₁ 0.1715$ · Q₃ 0.1730$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0053$ · IQR 0.0015$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.1697$Q₁ 0.1715$med 0.1721$Q₃ 0.1730$max 0.1749$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.122approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.465mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.12
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 1.16
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 4.00
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-19.25
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.090591%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.206
σᵣ STD / h0.440407%σ²ᵣ = 0.194×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.86×
σ ANNUALISED41.22%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.440%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-19.25negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-16.90downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.19approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.51mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.88
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-793.58%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.79%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.792%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.851%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.833%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.01%19h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.792%VaR₉₉−0.851%ES₉₅−0.833%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 19h duration
PEAK17.50$
−3.01% drawdown over 19h
16.97$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.05× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.07× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.10% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
33.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
-0.026 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.1737
Bollinger MA
$0.1717
Bollinger lower
$0.1698

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.252within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.180lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.761strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-6.978significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.761
H = 0.761STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.252k=2+0.180k=3-0.336k=4+0.084k=5-0.3160+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.98)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.25 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.77very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=6.98)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$5.33M
Open interest (USD)
$17.55M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.30x
1h funding
-0.003769%
Funding (annualised)
-33.02%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.69% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.34%MILD BEARISH -2.17%BEST+0.69%21hWORST-0.87%16hTYPICAL |Δ|0.34%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-2.17%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 1up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.06% · Σ -0.51%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.02% · Σ +0.14%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.81%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -2.17%+0.87%-2.18%0.09% · 12h0.09% · 12h0.09%12h0.27% · 13h0.27% · 13h0.27%13h0.23% · 14h0.23% · 14h0.23%14h0.29% · 15h0.29% · 15h0.29%15h-0.87% · 16h-0.87% · 16h-0.87%16h▼ WORST-0.76% · 17h-0.76% · 17h-0.76%17h-0.04% · 18h-0.04% · 18h-0.04%18h-0.03% · 19h-0.03% · 19h-0.03%19h-0.21% · 20h-0.21% · 20h-0.21%20h0.69% · 21h0.69% · 21h0.69%21h★ BEST-0.73% · 22h-0.73% · 22h-0.73%22h0.13% · 23h0.13% · 23h0.13%23h-0.19% · 00h-0.19% · 00h-0.19%00h0.68% · 01h0.68% · 01h0.68%01h-0.24% · 02h-0.24% · 02h-0.24%02h0.45% · 03h0.45% · 03h0.45%03h-0.66% · 04h-0.66% · 04h-0.66%04h0.09% · 05h0.09% · 05h0.09%05h-0.39% · 06h-0.39% · 06h-0.39%06h-0.25% · 07h-0.25% · 07h-0.25%07h-0.02% · 08h-0.02% · 08h-0.02%08h0.08% · 09h0.08% · 09h0.08%09h-0.80% · 10h-0.80% · 10h-0.80%10h0.01% · 11h0.01% · 11h0.01%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.14%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 5BREADTH46% up · 54% down
11 up bars · 13 down · best 0.69% · worst -0.87% · typical |Δ| 0.340%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-2.17%)FINAL-2.17%MAX DD-3.03%RECOVERYONGOING · 20 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.88%UNDERWATER20/25 (80%)STREAK↗ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9783 · peak 1.0088 · range [0.9782, 1.0088]1.00880.9782break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0088UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.03% · moderate0%-3.03%▼ TROUGH -3.03%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -3.03%bar 6-25 · 20 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.03%)RECOVERYongoing · 20 barsTIME UNDER WATER80% of session · 20/25 bars
final equity 0.9783 (-2.17%) · max DD -3.03% · time-under-water 20/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-23.53 · σ=25.47UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -65.07 (-1.63σ vs μ)65.0732.540.00-32.54-65.07μ = -23.53-21.82-21.82-25.87-25.87-37.06-37.06-55.93-55.93-33.41-33.41-31.24-31.24-6.10-6.10-10.92-10.9210.7710.779.929.923.373.375.765.764.284.28-2.14-2.14-40.58-40.58-31.46-31.46-60.69-60.69-58.90-58.90-65.07-65.07v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -65.072 · range [-65.07, 10.77] · μ -23.530 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=43.8084 · σ=7.7042 · range [27.6883, 53.0209] · R²=0.534▼ FALLING -38.72%σ EXTREME 17.59%LAST 30.857053.020946.687740.354634.021527.6883μ = 43.8084max 53.0209min 27.6883dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.53μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 30.86% · range [27.69%, 53.02%] · μ 43.81% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.345 · σ=0.354MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.449 (-0.29σ vs μ)0.7120.3560.000-0.356-0.712μ = -0.3450.3690.3690.2730.2730.1600.160-0.081-0.0810.1870.187-0.395-0.395-0.701-0.701-0.712-0.712-0.581-0.581-0.585-0.585-0.405-0.405-0.614-0.614-0.632-0.632-0.502-0.502-0.681-0.681-0.607-0.607-0.312-0.312-0.282-0.282-0.449-0.449v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.449 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.4055
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8165
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
9.5076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0895
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.9208
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7812
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.8760
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3810
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (15 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.7033
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0132
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.6562
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5117
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.800 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.37e-5 · top T=2.00h (43.4%) · top-3 cover 73.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-49.3e-56.2e-53.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.30e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.30e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.09e-5 · 7.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.52e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 8.52e-6 · 3.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.07e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 5.07e-5 · 17.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.24e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.15e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 9.15e-7 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.36e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.36e-5 · 4.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.50e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.23e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 2.23e-6 · 0.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.36e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 7.36e-6 · 2.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.74e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 1.74e-5 · 6.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 43.4% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.24e-4 · 43.4% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=6.00h#3T=3.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 43.4% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 2.849e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.02%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.02%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-107.18×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -48.22400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.021
annualized -48.22
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.00%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -45.18σ ann 42% · Sortino -26.49 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-5422%-4327%-3233%-2138%-1044%51%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)42.2%Ann. vol σ-4518.2%Sharpe (ann)-2648.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1630.1660.1700.1730.1770.181t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
5.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:03 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
042b587f86b7a2688d8b86cde530145291b1e426d9197b8ee2165ee430c7005f · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$8.99K
bid $4.66K · ask $4.34K
Depth within 5bp
$68.70K
bid $47.48K · ask $21.21K
Depth within 10bp
$184.61K
bid $111.34K · ask $73.26K
Depth within 50bp
$380.89K
bid $214.77K · ask $166.12K
Mid price
0.169695
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.129
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.434
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ada/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1697000.29bp0.1697001FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.1697241.74bp0.1697505FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.1698247.61bp0.16988016FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.1696900.29bp0.1696901FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.1696721.33bp0.1696504FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.1696144.75bp0.16954014FILLED

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-3.769e-5
-0.00377% / hr
Annualised APR
-33.042%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
11.1d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
11.1d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE33.042%11.1d110.5d
SHORTPAY-33.042%11.1d110.5d

/api/asset/hl-ada/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$30.80M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-ada/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.053 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
11 / 13
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$16.00M
real volume
Sell weight
$14.37M
real volume
Net delta
$1.62M
buyers net
Imbalance
5.34%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
5.3%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-ada/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 1.68% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 16:00:00Z3.0h0.174950→0.1720101.680%4
#22026-06-14 04:00:00Z4.0h0.173030→0.1709201.219%5
#32026-06-14 10:00:00Z1.0h0.171050→0.1696900.795%2

/api/asset/hl-ada/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
42.16%
σ per bar = 0.000184
Mean return (annualised)
-1904.77%
μ per bar = -0.000004
Sharpe (rf=0)
-45.18
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
2.23%
peak 0.17 → trough 0.17 over 4213 bars

/api/asset/hl-ada/risk · same metrics, JSON