HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

BIO

BIO-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-bio · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -1.01%
realized vol (ann.)
113.52%
max drawdown
2.29%
sharpe
-10.86
ulcer index
1.02%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.86%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.04%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-1213.32
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.02%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.97
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-611.50
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.97
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-1.01%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 40%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -1.01%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 13.6bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-bio/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.4s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.032
24h Δ · live
-1.01%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
BIO · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0322 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0316, 0.0328] · R²=0.247▼ FALLING -1.92%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.03170.03280.03250.03220.03190.0316μ = 0.0322max 0.0328min 0.0316dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.03
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=19,710,392 · μ=788415.7 · σ=1058553.3 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1501,014,2702,028,5403,042,8094,057,079μ = 7884164,057,07950%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4057079 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.4s
$mark $
$0.0317
$mid $
$0.0317
◉prev-day close
$0.032
Δ24h Δ %
-1.006%
$24h vol $
$631.75k
◐open interest $
$1.82M
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0322 · σ=0.0003 · range [0.0316, 0.0328] · R²=0.247▼ FALLING -1.92%σ NORMAL 1.04%LAST 0.03170.03280.03250.03220.03190.0316μ = 0.0322max 0.0328min 0.0316dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.25μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0317 · 24h -1.01% · range $[0.0316, 0.0328]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 12 · down 13 (48% up) · range [0.0314, 0.0338] · σ=0.0003 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=40%BEARISH -0.97%CLOSE 0.0317 vs OPEN 0.0320 (-0.97%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.03170.03380.03320.03260.03200.0314μ close = 0.0322O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.97%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.97%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.71%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.71%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.68%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.68%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.11%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.11%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.92%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.92%)1.5%O0.032 H0.034 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.50%)O0.032 H0.034 L0.032 C0.033 (+1.50%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.70%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.70%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (-0.26%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.31%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.31%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.62%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.033 (+0.62%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.87%)O0.033 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.87%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.33%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.33%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.57%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.57%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.17%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.17%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.84%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.84%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.05%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-1.06%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.031 C0.032 (-1.06%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.88%)O0.032 H0.033 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.88%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-0.18%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.96%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.96%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.01%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.01%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.08%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (-1.08%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.00%)O0.032 H0.032 L0.032 C0.032 (+0.00%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=19,710,392 · μ=788415.7 · σ=1058553.3 · CV=1.34BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=1501,014,2702,028,5403,042,8094,057,079μ = 788416266,626 · 6.6% peak266,626 · 6.6% peak238,743 · 5.9% peak238,743 · 5.9% peak452,430 · 11.2% peak452,430 · 11.2% peak473,767 · 11.7% peak473,767 · 11.7% peak133,362 · 3.3% peak133,362 · 3.3% peak4,057,0794,057,079 · 100.0% peak4,057,079 · 100.0% peak535,574 · 13.2% peak535,574 · 13.2% peak663,886 · 16.4% peak663,886 · 16.4% peak304,255 · 7.5% peak304,255 · 7.5% peak92,342 · 2.3% peak92,342 · 2.3% peak106,344 · 2.6% peak106,344 · 2.6% peak268,217 · 6.6% peak268,217 · 6.6% peak155,375 · 3.8% peak155,375 · 3.8% peak220,162 · 5.4% peak220,162 · 5.4% peak2,161,527 · 53.3% peak2,161,527 · 53.3% peak264,294 · 6.5% peak264,294 · 6.5% peak1,311,533 · 32.3% peak1,311,533 · 32.3% peak270,352 · 6.7% peak270,352 · 6.7% peak570,165 · 14.1% peak570,165 · 14.1% peak3,510,497 · 86.5% peak3,510,497 · 86.5% peak143,492 · 3.5% peak143,492 · 3.5% peak2,036,616 · 50.2% peak2,036,616 · 50.2% peak404,646 · 10.0% peak404,646 · 10.0% peak938,165 · 23.1% peak938,165 · 23.1% peak130,943 · 3.2% peak130,943 · 3.2% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 19710392 · peak 4057079 · CV 1.34

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0008 · σ=0.0071 · skew=0.26 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.88 (mesokurtic)54310 3-114.88bpbin -114.88bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -114.88bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-92.74bpbin -92.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -92.74bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-70.60bpbin -70.60bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -70.60bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 2-48.46bpbin -48.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -48.46bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 5-26.31bpbin -26.31bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin -26.31bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 2-4.17bpbin -4.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -4.17bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 217.97bpbin 17.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 17.97bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 140.11bpbin 40.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 40.11bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 262.25bpbin 62.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 62.25bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 184.39bpbin 84.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 84.39bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2106.53bpbin 106.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin 106.53bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 1128.67bpbin 128.67bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 128.67bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.33 · kurt=-0.86 · near 23 / mid 1 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0317
Mid price
$0.0317
24h change
-1.01%
Mark–mid spread
6.63 bps
Prev-day close
$0.032

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.04)
μ MEAN0.0322$95% CI: [0.0320$, 0.0323$]
σ STD DEV0.0003$σ² = 0.001×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.04%
med MEDIAN0.0321$Q₁ 0.0319$ · Q₃ 0.0324$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0012$ · IQR 0.0005$ (1.349σ→0.0005$)
min 0.0316$Q₁ 0.0319$med 0.0321$Q₃ 0.0324$max 0.0328$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.102approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.037platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.11
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.90
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.71
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-10.05
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.080706%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.107
σᵣ STD / h0.751913%σ²ᵣ = 0.565×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.32×
σ ANNUALISED70.38%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.752%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-10.05negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-11.12downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.35approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.77mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 1.11
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-706.99%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.13%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.130%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)1.231%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)1.198%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN3.79%12h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.130%VaR₉₉−1.231%ES₉₅−1.198%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 12h duration
PEAK3.28$
−3.79% drawdown over 12h
3.16$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.06× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.09× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +3.94% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
42.5 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.157 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0329
Bollinger MA
$0.0322
Bollinger lower
$0.0315

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.062within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.126lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.962strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.750significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.962
H = 0.962STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.062k=2-0.126k=3-0.308k=4-0.248k=5+0.2290+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.75)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.99very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=2.75)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$631.75k
Open interest (USD)
$1.82M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.35x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.40% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.63%BEARISH SESSION -1.94%BEST+1.40%16hWORST-1.26%05hTYPICAL |Δ|0.63%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-1.94%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.20% · Σ -1.62%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.59%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.03% · Σ +0.28%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -1.94%+1.48%-2.38%-0.72% · 12h-0.72% · 12h-0.72%12h-0.73% · 13h-0.73% · 13h-0.73%13h0.09% · 14h0.09% · 14h0.09%14h0.97% · 15h0.97% · 15h0.97%15h1.40% · 16h1.40% · 16h1.40%16h★ BEST0.48% · 17h0.48% · 17h0.48%17h-0.57% · 18h-0.57% · 18h-0.57%18h-0.21% · 19h-0.21% · 19h-0.21%19h-0.27% · 20h-0.27% · 20h-0.27%20h0.63% · 21h0.63% · 21h0.63%21h-0.87% · 22h-0.87% · 22h-0.87%22h-0.31% · 23h-0.31% · 23h-0.31%23h-0.57% · 00h-0.57% · 00h-0.57%00h0.27% · 01h0.27% · 01h0.27%01h-0.31% · 02h-0.31% · 02h-0.31%02h0.70% · 03h0.70% · 03h0.70%03h-1.09% · 04h-1.09% · 04h-1.09%04h-1.26% · 05h-1.26% · 05h-1.26%05h▼ WORST0.89% · 06h0.89% · 06h0.89%06h-0.25% · 07h-0.25% · 07h-0.25%07h1.16% · 08h1.16% · 08h1.16%08h-0.07% · 09h-0.07% · 09h-0.07%09h-1.14% · 10h-1.14% · 10h-1.14%10h-0.15% · 11h-0.15% · 11h-0.15%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.28%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 3BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.40% · worst -1.26% · typical |Δ| 0.630%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-1.98%)FINAL-1.98%MAX DD-3.82%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.47%UNDERWATER22/25 (88%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9802 · peak 1.0147 · range [0.9760, 1.0147]1.01470.9760break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0147UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -3.82% · moderate0%-3.82%▼ TROUGH -3.82%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -3.82%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.45%bar 2-5 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -3.82%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER88% of session · 22/25 bars
final equity 0.9802 (-1.98%) · max DD -3.82% · time-under-water 22/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-9.05 · σ=30.82MIXED EDGELAST 8.25 (+0.56σ vs μ)49.8324.910.00-24.91-49.83μ = -9.0526.4426.4430.4230.4245.7045.7036.1636.1631.1931.19-21.57-21.57-49.83-49.83-49.82-49.82-31.94-31.94-33.08-33.08-29.83-29.83-32.57-32.57-46.35-46.35-13.88-13.88-23.36-23.362.282.28-9.76-9.76-10.41-10.418.258.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 8.255 · range [-49.83, 45.70] · μ -9.050 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=70.3278 · σ=16.5762 · range [46.9091, 97.8721] · R²=0.172▼ FALLING -4.41%σ EXTREME 23.57%LAST 78.284097.872185.131472.390659.649946.9091μ = 70.3278max 97.8721min 46.9091dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.17μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 78.28% · range [46.91%, 97.87%] · μ 70.33% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.120 · σ=0.343MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.095 (+0.07σ vs μ)0.5470.2740.000-0.274-0.547μ = -0.1200.5470.5470.2540.2540.3710.3710.5000.5000.1830.183-0.517-0.517-0.425-0.425-0.402-0.402-0.444-0.444-0.438-0.438-0.130-0.130-0.542-0.542-0.052-0.052-0.266-0.266-0.298-0.298-0.180-0.180-0.062-0.062-0.291-0.291-0.095-0.095v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.095 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.0855
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5811
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.0126
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2186
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.5406
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5140
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.3350
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7377
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (13 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4174
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0697
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.0413
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9670
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.987 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=5.49e-5 · top T=8.00h (20.0%) · top-3 cover 46.9%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.3e-49.9e-56.6e-53.3e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 24.0 · power 2.15e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.54e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 5.54e-5 · 8.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.32e-4 · 20.0% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.10e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 8.10e-5 · 12.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.62e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 9.62e-5 · 14.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.25e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 2.25e-5 · 3.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.95e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 1.95e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.72e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 3.0 · power 4.72e-5 · 7.2% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.94e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.94e-5 · 12.1% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.42e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.4 · power 5.42e-5 · 8.2% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.04e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 5.04e-5 · 7.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.76e-5 · 2.7% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=8.00h#2T=4.80h#3T=6.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 8.00h (freq 0.125) · concentrates 20.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 6.590e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² short edge (μ<0) · μ -0.000% · σ 0.05%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.05%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-10.93×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -11.21400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -11.21
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.05×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -13.47σ ann 123% · Sortino -13.39 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-1617%-1264%-911%-558%-205%148%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)123.2%Ann. vol σ-1347.2%Sharpe (ann)-1338.9%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0300.0310.0320.0320.0330.034t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:50 UTC
Snapshot age
3.4s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:00:55 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
6f7fa7916fd2c8b041d4fe150fb7e8e08e25cb56c94aa75a66ec8164d42232e5 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$594
bid $405 · ask $189
Depth within 10bp
$9.82K
bid $7.18K · ask $2.64K
Depth within 50bp
$36.62K
bid $18.02K · ask $18.60K
Mid price
0.031717
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
5.4bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.014
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.285
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bio/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0317376.14bp0.0317405FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.03175913.24bp0.03179413FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.03177819.12bp0.03181520PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0317044.30bp0.0317003FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0316908.58bp0.03167310FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.03167114.79bp0.03163020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-bio/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$19.71M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-bio/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.474 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$14.33M
real volume
Sell weight
$5.12M
real volume
Net delta
$9.21M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.36%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-bio/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 2.32% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 04:00:00Z3.0h0.032310→0.0315602.321%4
#22026-06-13 22:00:00Z4.0h0.032665→0.0320851.776%5
#32026-06-13 12:00:00Z2.0h0.032320→0.0318531.445%3

/api/asset/hl-bio/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
123.22%
σ per bar = 0.000537
Mean return (annualised)
-1660.03%
μ per bar = -0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
-13.47
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
4.11%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.03 over 1349 bars

/api/asset/hl-bio/risk · same metrics, JSON