HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

HMSTR

HMSTR-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-hmstr · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -8.99%
realized vol (ann.)
406.45%
max drawdown
3.43%
sharpe
38.74
ulcer index
1.42%
RMS drawdown
pain index
1.12%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
11082.81
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.55%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.16
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
6167.81
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.16
upside/downside
roll spread
16.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-8.99%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-103.49%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 45%
  • 24h change -8.99%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 57.8bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-hmstr/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.5s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-8.99%
24h vol · live
$0.5M
HMSTR · live 24h price
n=24 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -9.95%σ HIGH 5.40%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
24 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 49.8%Short fee 50.2%SHORT FEE50.2%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.02% (99.98pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 1.000 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
49.8%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
50.2%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.011814% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=24 · Σ=2,616,268,442 · μ=109011185.1 · σ=95934021.9 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=140105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 109011185423,846,40450%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 423846404 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.5s
$mark $
$0.0002
$mid $
$0.0002
◉prev-day close
$0.0002
Δ24h Δ %
-8.995%
$24h vol $
$453.20k
◐open interest $
$201.70k
%funding (1h)
-0.011814%
%funding (yr)
-103.49%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=24 · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · R²=0.801▼ FALLING -9.95%σ HIGH 5.40%LAST 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ = 0.0002max 0.0002min 0.0002dataMA(4)OLS R²=0.80μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0002 · 24h -8.99% · range $[0.0002, 0.0002]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=24 · up 13 · down 11 (54% up) · range [0.0002, 0.0002] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.05 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -8.99%CLOSE 0.0002 vs OPEN 0.0002 (-8.99%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00020.00020.00020.00020.00020.0002μ close = 0.0002O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.57%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.57%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.19%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.19%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.10%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.08%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.31%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)-4.0%O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.98%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.51%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.42%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.78%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.37%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.60%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.82%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.23%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+4.24%)#1#5#9#13#17#21up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(4) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
24 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=24 · Σ=2,616,268,442 · μ=109011185.1 · σ=95934021.9 · CV=0.88BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=140105,961,601211,923,202317,884,803423,846,404μ = 109011185111,485,124 · 26.3% peak111,485,124 · 26.3% peak72,655,852 · 17.1% peak72,655,852 · 17.1% peak45,959,873 · 10.8% peak45,959,873 · 10.8% peak124,878,559 · 29.5% peak124,878,559 · 29.5% peak140,001,332 · 33.0% peak140,001,332 · 33.0% peak91,797,862 · 21.7% peak91,797,862 · 21.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak75,168,686 · 17.7% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak56,233,535 · 13.3% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak105,581,383 · 24.9% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak73,861,462 · 17.4% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak117,898,041 · 27.8% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak71,712,466 · 16.9% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak96,830,802 · 22.8% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak375,965,370 · 88.7% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak38,167,565 · 9.0% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak41,639,154 · 9.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak105,204,607 · 24.8% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak72,652,493 · 17.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak55,381,881 · 13.1% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak82,523,681 · 19.5% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak43,556,251 · 10.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak162,283,260 · 38.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak30,982,799 · 7.3% peak423,846,404423,846,404 · 100.0% peak423,846,404 · 100.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 2616268442 · peak 423846404 · CV 0.88

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=23 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0045 · σ=0.0191 · skew=0.36 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.13 (mesokurtic)75420 4-314.49bpbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -314.49bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1-245.73bpbin -245.73bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -245.73bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 4-176.97bpbin -176.97bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -176.97bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak 1-108.20bpbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -108.20bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-39.44bp 729.32bpbin 29.32bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 29.32bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 498.09bpbin 98.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin 98.09bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak166.85bp 1235.61bpbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 235.61bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak304.37bp373.14bp 1441.90bpbin 441.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 441.90bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=23 · positive 8 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=23 · skew=0.43 · kurt=0.06 · near 19 / mid 4 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0002
Mid price
$0.0002
24h change
-8.99%
Mark–mid spread
58.14 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0002

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=24RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.52)
μ MEAN0.0002$95% CI: [0.0002$, 0.0002$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 5.40%
med MEDIAN0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$ · Q₃ 0.0002$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0002$Q₁ 0.0002$med 0.0002$Q₃ 0.0002$max 0.0002$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.520right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.212platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.44
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.78
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.09
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-20.86
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.455561%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.223
σᵣ STD / h2.043566%σ²ᵣ = 4.176×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.49×
σ ANNUALISED191.27%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 2.044%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-20.86negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-17.13downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.46approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.39mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.82
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-3990.71%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKEXTREME · 95% VaR 3.36%
VaR₉₅ (h)3.358%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.463%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.430%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN15.18%20h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−3.358%VaR₉₉−3.463%ES₉₅−3.430%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsevere drawdown · capital threatened · 20h duration
PEAK0.02$
−15.18% drawdown over 20h
0.02$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSthin tails · ES ≈ VaR|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.02× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.03× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsevere drawdown · capital threatenedrecovery needed: +17.90% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
41.9 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.545 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0002
Bollinger MA
$0.0002
Bollinger lower
$0.0002

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit root
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.118within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.158lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.988strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-9.397significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.988
H = 0.988STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.118k=2+0.158k=3-0.217k=4-0.004k=5+0.1100+1−1+0.42−0.42+ momentum (ρ > +0.42)− reversal (ρ < −0.42)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.40)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ADF rejects unit rootfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=9.40)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$453.20k
Open interest (USD)
$201.70k
Vol / OI (turnover)
2.25x
1h funding
-0.011814%
Funding (annualised)
-103.49%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=23 bars · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.59%BEARISH SESSION -10.48%BEST+4.76%10hWORST-3.49%21hTYPICAL |Δ|1.59%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-10.48%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 2up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.23% · Σ -1.83%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.17% · Σ +1.16%US · 16-24 UTCμ -1.23% · Σ -9.81%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -10.48%+0.00%-16.47%0.00% · 12h0.00% · 12h·12h-1.58% · 13h-1.58% · 13h-1.58%13h-3.24% · 14h-3.24% · 14h-3.24%14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h1.09% · 16h1.09% · 16h1.09%16h0.00% · 17h0.00% · 17h·17h-1.64% · 18h-1.64% · 18h-1.64%18h-3.37% · 19h-3.37% · 19h-3.37%19h0.00% · 20h0.00% · 20h·20h-3.49% · 21h-3.49% · 21h-3.49%21h▼ WORST0.59% · 22h0.59% · 22h0.59%22h-2.99% · 23h-2.99% · 23h-2.99%23h2.40% · 00h2.40% · 00h2.40%00h-1.79% · 01h-1.79% · 01h-1.79%01h1.20% · 02h1.20% · 02h1.20%02h0.59% · 03h0.59% · 03h0.59%03h-2.40% · 04h-2.40% · 04h-2.40%04h1.20% · 05h1.20% · 05h1.20%05h-1.20% · 06h-1.20% · 06h-1.20%06h-1.83% · 07h-1.83% · 07h-1.83%07h0.00% · 08h0.00% · 08h·08h1.23% · 09h1.23% · 09h1.23%09h4.76% · 10h4.76% · 10h4.76%10h★ BESTTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.16%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 2BREADTH35% up · 43% down · 22% flat
8 up bars · 10 down · best 4.76% · worst -3.49% · typical |Δ| 1.592%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=24 barsSEVERE DRAWDOWN -10.38%FINAL-10.38%MAX DD-15.49%RECOVERYONGOING · 22 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER22/24 (92%)STREAK↗ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 0.8962 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.8451, 1.0000]1.00000.8451break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -15.49% · severe0%-15.49%▼ TROUGH -15.49%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -15.49%bar 3-24 · 22 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYsevere (max -15.49%)RECOVERYongoing · 22 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 22/24 bars
final equity 0.8962 (-10.38%) · max DD -15.49% · time-under-water 22/24 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 5 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +1 / −18 (5% positive) · μ=-34.17 · σ=30.71UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST 21.15 (+1.80σ vs μ)92.7846.390.00-46.39-92.78μ = -34.17-41.34-41.34-41.34-41.34-41.82-41.82-42.07-42.07-42.07-42.07-92.78-92.78-79.01-79.01-87.55-87.55-26.26-26.26-39.69-39.69-5.02-5.02-4.99-4.99-0.00-0.00-12.92-12.92-7.03-7.03-43.68-43.68-54.55-54.55-8.20-8.2021.1521.15v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 21.150 · range [-92.78, 21.15] · μ -34.167 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=176.9043 · σ=33.6015 · range [129.8728, 244.3696] · R²=0.007▲ RISING +54.43%σ EXTREME 18.99%LAST 244.3696244.3696215.7454187.1212158.4970129.8728μ = 176.9043max 244.3696min 129.8728dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.01μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 244.37% · range [129.87%, 244.37%] · μ 176.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.323 · σ=0.403CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.296 (+1.53σ vs μ)0.8050.4030.000-0.403-0.805μ = -0.3230.0850.0850.2600.2600.0220.0220.3690.3690.0810.081-0.499-0.499-0.703-0.703-0.805-0.805-0.629-0.629-0.660-0.660-0.799-0.799-0.648-0.648-0.434-0.434-0.499-0.499-0.496-0.496-0.599-0.599-0.521-0.5210.0490.0490.2960.296v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.296 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.9623
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6181
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
2.7877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7352
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.9712
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3090
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.0395
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2986
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (12 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1725
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4049
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.1565
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2475
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.759 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=11 bins · noise floor μ=4.18e-4 · top T=2.30h (23.0%) · top-3 cover 53.0%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.1e-37.9e-45.3e-42.6e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 23.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 23.0 · power 3.76e-4 · 8.2% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.75e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 11.5 · power 1.75e-4 · 3.8% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.69e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 7.7 · power 5.69e-4 · 12.4% energyperiod 5.8 · power 7.18e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 5.8 · power 7.18e-4 · 15.6% energyperiod 4.6 · power 6.61e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 4.6 · power 6.61e-4 · 14.4% energyperiod 3.8 · power 6.42e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.8 · power 6.42e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.10e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 3.3 · power 8.10e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.9 · power 6.58e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.9 · power 6.58e-5 · 1.4% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.23e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.6 · power 3.23e-4 · 7.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.06e-3 · 23.0% energyperiod 2.3 · power 1.06e-3 · 23.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 5.04e-4 · 11.0% energyperiod 2.1 · power 5.04e-4 · 11.0% energy50% by T=4.6h#1 dominantT=2.30h#2T=5.75h#3T=4.60hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.30h (freq 0.435) · concentrates 23.0% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 4.594e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 2.83× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 2.81× · μ 0.001% · σ 0.16%
μ per barmean
0.001%
σ per barvol
0.16%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
2.83×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
2.81×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.42×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.71×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%-0.00%-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.70× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 12.80400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.70× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.006
annualized 12.80
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.11%
VaR 95%5%
0.00%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.01%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.4%
0.91×0.95×0.99×1.03×1.07×1.11×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 10.25σ ann 365% · Sortino 2.68 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%246%492%738%984%1230%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)364.5%Ann. vol σ1024.6%Sharpe (ann)268.3%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.007% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.000t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
2.5s
History points
24 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:00 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
220e34ced7302d24614705ea98a442693b4052182f685fc5a4321fbf55961ace · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$14.00K
bid $13.68K · ask $321
Mid price
0.000171
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
58.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.009
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.053
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hmstr/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00017368.66bp0.0001732FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00017385.58bp0.0001732FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000180468.00bp0.00026320PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.00017129.15bp0.0001711FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00017129.15bp0.0001711FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000166296.76bp0.00014320PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.181e-4
-0.01181% / hr
Annualised APR
-103.558%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
3.5d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
3.5d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE103.558%3.5d35.3d
SHORTPAY-103.558%3.5d35.3d

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 24 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★24$2.62B

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-hmstr/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.046 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 13
2 unclassified
Buy weight
$1.27B
real volume
Sell weight
$1.16B
real volume
Net delta
$111.27M
buyers net
Imbalance
4.58%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
4.6%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 24-record window./api/asset/hl-hmstr/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 3 found · deepest 10.33% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 18:00:00Z8.0h0.000184→0.00016510.326%9
#22026-06-13 13:00:00Z3.0h0.000191→0.0001824.712%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z5.0h0.000169→0.0001624.142%6

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
364.54%
σ per bar = 0.001590
Mean return (annualised)
3735.14%
μ per bar = 0.000007
Sharpe (rf=0)
10.25
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.98%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 2774 bars

/api/asset/hl-hmstr/risk · same metrics, JSON