HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

MELANIA

MELANIA-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-melania · fresh · feed 4s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -4.46%
realized vol (ann.)
434.96%
max drawdown
9.43%
sharpe
-26.92
ulcer index
4.26%
RMS drawdown
pain index
3.51%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-2749.90
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
6.75%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.93
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-1734.09
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.93
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-4.46%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -4.46%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-melania/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH3.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.079
24h Δ · live
-4.46%
24h vol · live
$0.9M
MELANIA · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0823 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0789, 0.0838] · R²=0.393▼ FALLING -4.86%σ NORMAL 1.66%LAST 0.07890.08380.08260.08140.08010.0789μ = 0.0823max 0.0838min 0.0789dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.08
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=10,687,564 · μ=427502.6 · σ=963854.5 · CV=2.25BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=2201,073,5792,147,1573,220,7364,294,314μ = 4275034,294,314.150%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 4294314 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
3.8s
$mark $
$0.0788
$mid $
$0.0788
◉prev-day close
$0.0825
Δ24h Δ %
-4.461%
$24h vol $
$876.27k
◐open interest $
$717.91k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0823 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0789, 0.0838] · R²=0.393▼ FALLING -4.86%σ NORMAL 1.66%LAST 0.07890.08380.08260.08140.08010.0789μ = 0.0823max 0.0838min 0.0789dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.39μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0788 · 24h -4.46% · range $[0.0789, 0.0838]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 11 · down 14 (44% up) · range [0.0760, 0.0842] · σ=0.0014 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=45%BEARISH -4.41%CLOSE 0.0789 vs OPEN 0.0825 (-4.41%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.07890.08420.08220.08010.07810.0760μ close = 0.0823O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.47%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.47%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.27%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.27%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.58%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.27%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.27%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.79%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.79%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.82%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.82%)O0.082 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.97%)O0.082 H0.084 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.97%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.76%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.76%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.083 (-0.13%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.47%)O0.083 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.47%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.12%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (+0.12%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.43%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.083 C0.084 (-0.43%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.64%)O0.084 H0.084 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.64%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.34%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.34%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+0.40%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.083 C0.083 (+0.44%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.10%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-1.10%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+1.56%)O0.082 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (+1.56%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.65%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.083 (-0.65%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.05%)O0.083 H0.083 L0.082 C0.082 (-0.05%)-2.5%O0.082 H0.084 L0.077 C0.080 (-2.47%)O0.082 H0.084 L0.077 C0.080 (-2.47%)O0.081 H0.083 L0.076 C0.080 (-1.18%)O0.081 H0.083 L0.076 C0.080 (-1.18%)O0.080 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-1.19%)O0.080 H0.080 L0.079 C0.079 (-1.19%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.04%)O0.079 H0.079 L0.079 C0.079 (+0.04%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=10,687,564 · μ=427502.6 · σ=963854.5 · CV=2.25BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=2201,073,5792,147,1573,220,7364,294,314μ = 427503150,423.9 · 3.5% peak150,423.9 · 3.5% peak191,498.4 · 4.5% peak191,498.4 · 4.5% peak123,943.2 · 2.9% peak123,943.2 · 2.9% peak142,233.5 · 3.3% peak142,233.5 · 3.3% peak134,485.7 · 3.1% peak134,485.7 · 3.1% peak118,669.5 · 2.8% peak118,669.5 · 2.8% peak152,252.9 · 3.5% peak152,252.9 · 3.5% peak579,580.9 · 13.5% peak579,580.9 · 13.5% peak111,637 · 2.6% peak111,637 · 2.6% peak105,033.9 · 2.4% peak105,033.9 · 2.4% peak111,107.6 · 2.6% peak111,107.6 · 2.6% peak79,137.4 · 1.8% peak79,137.4 · 1.8% peak48,685.9 · 1.1% peak48,685.9 · 1.1% peak430,447 · 10.0% peak430,447 · 10.0% peak394,268.1 · 9.2% peak394,268.1 · 9.2% peak28,215.4 · 0.7% peak28,215.4 · 0.7% peak111,452.1 · 2.6% peak111,452.1 · 2.6% peak55,032.6 · 1.3% peak55,032.6 · 1.3% peak70,221.5 · 1.6% peak70,221.5 · 1.6% peak127,828.1 · 3.0% peak127,828.1 · 3.0% peak112,994.2 · 2.6% peak112,994.2 · 2.6% peak4,294,314.14,294,314.1 · 100.0% peak4,294,314.1 · 100.0% peak2,725,276.8 · 63.5% peak2,725,276.8 · 63.5% peak274,239.7 · 6.4% peak274,239.7 · 6.4% peak14,585 · 0.3% peak14,585 · 0.3% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 10687564 · peak 4294314 · CV 2.25

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0018 · σ=0.0085 · skew=-0.59 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.01 (mesokurtic)65320 1-232.87bpbin -232.87bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -232.87bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak-200.10bp 1-167.32bpbin -167.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -167.32bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 1-134.54bpbin -134.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -134.54bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 2-101.76bpbin -101.76bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin -101.76bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 3-68.99bpbin -68.99bp · n=3 · 50.0% peakbin -68.99bp · n=3 · 50.0% peak 1-36.21bpbin -36.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin -36.21bp · n=1 · 16.7% peak 6-3.43bpbin -3.43bp · n=6 · 100.0% peakbin -3.43bp · n=6 · 100.0% peak 429.34bpbin 29.34bp · n=4 · 66.7% peakbin 29.34bp · n=4 · 66.7% peak 262.12bpbin 62.12bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 62.12bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 294.90bpbin 94.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peakbin 94.90bp · n=2 · 33.3% peak 1127.67bpbin 127.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakbin 127.67bp · n=1 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 9 · negative 15
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.54 · kurt=0.27 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0788
Mid price
$0.0788
24h change
-4.46%
Mark–mid spread
2.54 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0825

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.40)
μ MEAN0.0823$95% CI: [0.0818$, 0.0829$]
σ STD DEV0.0014$σ² = 0.019×10⁻⁴ · CV = 1.66%
med MEDIAN0.0825$Q₁ 0.0823$ · Q₃ 0.0831$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0050$ · IQR 0.0008$ (1.349σ→0.0018$)
min 0.0789$Q₁ 0.0823$med 0.0825$Q₃ 0.0831$max 0.0838$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.399left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.946mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.16
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 2.19
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.66
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-21.85
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.207668%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.233
σᵣ STD / h0.889748%σ²ᵣ = 0.792×10⁻⁴ · CV = 4.28×
σ ANNUALISED83.28%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.890%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-21.85negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-19.82downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.58left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.64mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.91
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1819.17%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 1.55%
VaR₉₅ (h)1.550%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)2.288%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)2.048%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN5.95%13h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−1.550%VaR₉₉−2.288%ES₉₅−2.048%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 13h duration
PEAK8.38$
−5.95% drawdown over 13h
7.89$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.32× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.48× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +6.33% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
29.9 · oversold
Bollinger %B
-0.057 · below lower band
Bollinger upper
$0.0852
Bollinger MA
$0.0822
Bollinger lower
$0.0792

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.172within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.317lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.917strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.855significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.917
H = 0.917STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.172k=2+0.317k=3-0.263k=4+0.231k=5-0.3090+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.86)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=24from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.86)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$876.27k
Open interest (USD)
$717.91k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.22x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.44% · worst -2.49% · typical |Δ| 0.67%BEARISH SESSION -4.98%BEST+1.44%05hWORST-2.49%08hTYPICAL |Δ|0.67%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-4.98%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 6down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.17% · Σ -1.36%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.53% · Σ -4.21%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.59%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -4.98%+1.15%-4.98%0.22% · 12h0.22% · 12h0.22%12h-0.76% · 13h-0.76% · 13h-0.76%13h-0.11% · 14h-0.11% · 14h-0.11%14h0.91% · 15h0.91% · 15h0.91%15h-1.00% · 16h-1.00% · 16h-1.00%16h0.74% · 17h0.74% · 17h0.74%17h-0.17% · 18h-0.17% · 18h-0.17%18h0.88% · 19h0.88% · 19h0.88%19h-0.13% · 20h-0.13% · 20h-0.13%20h0.41% · 21h0.41% · 21h0.41%21h0.18% · 22h0.18% · 22h0.18%22h-0.31% · 23h-0.31% · 23h-0.31%23h-1.60% · 00h-1.60% · 00h-1.60%00h-0.02% · 01h-0.02% · 01h-0.02%01h0.36% · 02h0.36% · 02h0.36%02h0.47% · 03h0.47% · 03h0.47%03h-1.12% · 04h-1.12% · 04h-1.12%04h1.44% · 05h1.44% · 05h1.44%05h★ BEST-0.81% · 06h-0.81% · 06h-0.81%06h-0.08% · 07h-0.08% · 07h-0.08%07h-2.49% · 08h-2.49% · 08h-2.49%08h▼ WORST-0.66% · 09h-0.66% · 09h-0.66%09h-1.25% · 10h-1.25% · 10h-1.25%10h-0.06% · 11h-0.06% · 11h-0.06%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.59%)RUNSup max 2 · down max 6BREADTH38% up · 63% down
9 up bars · 15 down · best 1.44% · worst -2.49% · typical |Δ| 0.675%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-4.95%)FINAL-4.95%MAX DD-6.02%RECOVERYONGOING · 13 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.14%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↘ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9505 · peak 1.0114 · range [0.9505, 1.0114]1.01140.9505break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0114UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -6.02% · significant0%-6.02%▼ TROUGH -6.02%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 4 total#1 -6.02%bar 13-25 · 13 bars · ONGOING#2 -1.00%bar 6-8 · 3 bars · recovered#3 -0.87%bar 3-4 · 2 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -6.02%)RECOVERYongoing · 13 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 0.9505 (-4.95%) · max DD -6.02% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-9.40 · σ=35.55MIXED EDGELAST -92.44 (-2.34σ vs μ)92.4446.220.00-46.22-92.44μ = -9.40-0.24-0.24-8.06-8.0625.3025.3024.7824.7816.0316.0367.8067.8029.9029.90-10.70-10.70-32.64-32.64-20.47-20.47-18.88-18.88-41.68-41.68-6.55-6.555.505.504.484.48-29.62-29.62-45.00-45.00-46.19-46.19-92.44-92.44v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -92.443 · range [-92.44, 67.80] · μ -9.405 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=80.7877 · σ=23.7851 · range [40.9667, 127.6359] · R²=0.477▲ RISING +16.44%σ EXTREME 29.44%LAST 84.6107127.6359105.968684.301362.634040.9667μ = 80.7877max 127.6359min 40.9667dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.48μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 84.61% · range [40.97%, 127.64%] · μ 80.79% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +4 / −15 (21% positive) · μ=-0.388 · σ=0.322MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.482 (-0.29σ vs μ)0.8170.4090.000-0.409-0.817μ = -0.388-0.609-0.609-0.593-0.593-0.739-0.739-0.738-0.738-0.554-0.554-0.817-0.817-0.515-0.5150.0970.0970.0440.0440.0810.0810.1300.130-0.074-0.074-0.316-0.316-0.743-0.743-0.707-0.707-0.371-0.371-0.293-0.293-0.168-0.168-0.482-0.482v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.482 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.7604
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4147
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
10.5325
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0608
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-0.0167
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.9544
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.7816
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4345
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.5024
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0411
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
0.1803
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8569
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.055 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=9.63e-5 · top T=2.00h (42.5%) · top-3 cover 62.5%STRONG CYCLE @ T≈2.0cumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)4.9e-43.7e-42.5e-41.2e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 9.97e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 24.0 · power 9.97e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.42e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 7.42e-5 · 6.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.20e-4 · 10.4% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.16e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.16e-6 · 0.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.14e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 4.14e-5 · 3.6% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.03e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.03e-5 · 6.9% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.84e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 5.84e-5 · 5.1% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.30e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 2.30e-5 · 2.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.25e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.25e-5 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.11e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.11e-4 · 9.6% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 2.08e-5 · 1.8% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 42.5% energyperiod 2.0 · power 4.91e-4 · 42.5% energy50% by T=2.4h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=8.00h#3T=2.40hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 42.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.156e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.001% per barparametric μ/σ² -6.26× · μ -0.001% · σ 0.12%
μ per barmean
-0.001%
σ per barvol
0.12%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-6.26×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.01%0.02%0.04%0.07%0.10%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -12.38400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.005
annualized -12.38
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.01%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.02%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.03×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -1000% · APY -100% · Sharpe -17.42σ ann 278% · Sortino -13.86 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
-2091%-1606%-1121%-636%-151%334%-1000.0%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)278.5%Ann. vol σ-1742.2%Sharpe (ann)-1386.4%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0730.0760.0790.0820.0850.088t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:08 UTC
Snapshot age
3.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:13 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d0092bf424cfade1b18d00759005d62662bfe75a2beec95a949c7d9bc86d574a · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$4.79K
bid $2.64K · ask $2.16K
Depth within 10bp
$9.80K
bid $4.07K · ask $5.73K
Depth within 50bp
$35.82K
bid $18.89K · ask $16.93K
Mid price
0.078845
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.047
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.074
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-melania/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.0788703.17bp0.0788701FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.07892910.60bp0.07903011FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.07909631.87bp0.07943020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.0788203.17bp0.0788201FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.07875611.34bp0.0786408FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.07858832.56bp0.07819020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-melania/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$10.69M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-melania/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ ASK-LEAN · -0.812 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
9 / 15
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$990.01K
real volume
Sell weight
$9.55M
real volume
Net delta
$8.56M
sellers net
Imbalance
-81.21%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
81.2%
one-sided / toxic
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-melania/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 5.22% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 06:00:00Z5.0h0.083200→0.0788605.216%6
#22026-06-14 00:00:00Z2.0h0.083850→0.0822401.920%3
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z0ms0.082930→0.0820101.109%1

/api/asset/hl-melania/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
278.46%
σ per bar = 0.001214
Mean return (annualised)
-4851.22%
μ per bar = -0.000009
Sharpe (rf=0)
-17.42
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.43%
peak 0.08 → trough 0.08 over 129 bars

/api/asset/hl-melania/risk · same metrics, JSON