HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

NOT

NOT-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-not · fresh · feed 5s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ -6.80%
realized vol (ann.)
202.47%
max drawdown
2.67%
sharpe
32.87
ulcer index
0.98%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.68%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
6791.16
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
2.31%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.10
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
2877.63
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.10
upside/downside
roll spread
5.6 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
-6.80%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
10.95%
signalSHORTconfidence 39%suggested side: SELL
  • 24h change -6.80%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-not/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH4.8s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.000
24h Δ · live
-6.80%
24h vol · live
$0.6M
NOT · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · R²=0.221▼ FALLING -3.61%σ NORMAL 2.05%LAST 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0005min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.00
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.1%Short fee 51.9%SHORT FEE51.9%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.1%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.9%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.001250% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=1,285,336,401 · μ=51413456.0 · σ=80609674.0 · CV=1.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=6097,319,178194,638,355291,957,533389,276,710μ = 51413456389,276,71050%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 389276710 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
4.8s
$mark $
$0.0005
$mid $
$0.0005
◉prev-day close
$0.0005
Δ24h Δ %
-6.796%
$24h vol $
$637.44k
◐open interest $
$353.86k
%funding (1h)
0.001250%
%funding (yr)
+10.95%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.0005 · σ=0.0000 · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · R²=0.221▼ FALLING -3.61%σ NORMAL 2.05%LAST 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ = 0.0005max 0.0005min 0.0005dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.22μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.0005 · 24h -6.80% · range $[0.0005, 0.0005]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 13 · down 12 (52% up) · range [0.0005, 0.0005] · σ=0.0000 · CV=0.02 · bodyµ=49%BEARISH -6.80%CLOSE 0.0005 vs OPEN 0.0005 (-6.80%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.00050.00050.00050.00050.00050.0005μ close = 0.0005O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.30%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.30%)-3.6%O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.64%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-3.64%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.84%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.84%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.00%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.74%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+2.74%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.84%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.84%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.40%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.40%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.001 (+0.80%)O0.000 H0.001 L0.000 C0.001 (+0.80%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.39%)O0.001 H0.001 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.39%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.20%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.41%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.41%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.04%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.63%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.71%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-2.71%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.85%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-1.69%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.50%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.06%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.47%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (+1.47%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)O0.000 H0.000 L0.000 C0.000 (-0.21%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=1,285,336,401 · μ=51413456.0 · σ=80609674.0 · CV=1.57BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=6097,319,178194,638,355291,957,533389,276,710μ = 51413456389,276,710389,276,710 · 100.0% peak389,276,710 · 100.0% peak57,796,509 · 14.8% peak57,796,509 · 14.8% peak67,344,408 · 17.3% peak67,344,408 · 17.3% peak78,276,068 · 20.1% peak78,276,068 · 20.1% peak7,599,547 · 2.0% peak7,599,547 · 2.0% peak55,469,461 · 14.2% peak55,469,461 · 14.2% peak25,343,682 · 6.5% peak25,343,682 · 6.5% peak12,427,265 · 3.2% peak12,427,265 · 3.2% peak7,845,311 · 2.0% peak7,845,311 · 2.0% peak21,080,473 · 5.4% peak21,080,473 · 5.4% peak59,891,340 · 15.4% peak59,891,340 · 15.4% peak6,326,920 · 1.6% peak6,326,920 · 1.6% peak53,071,627 · 13.6% peak53,071,627 · 13.6% peak31,594,993 · 8.1% peak31,594,993 · 8.1% peak2,867,614 · 0.7% peak2,867,614 · 0.7% peak6,068,399 · 1.6% peak6,068,399 · 1.6% peak171,835,371 · 44.1% peak171,835,371 · 44.1% peak19,117,239 · 4.9% peak19,117,239 · 4.9% peak91,015,655 · 23.4% peak91,015,655 · 23.4% peak8,157,112 · 2.1% peak8,157,112 · 2.1% peak19,781,070 · 5.1% peak19,781,070 · 5.1% peak4,793,076 · 1.2% peak4,793,076 · 1.2% peak7,831,980 · 2.0% peak7,831,980 · 2.0% peak76,382,294 · 19.6% peak76,382,294 · 19.6% peak4,142,277 · 1.1% peak4,142,277 · 1.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 1285336401 · peak 389276710 · CV 1.57

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=-0.0018 · σ=0.0155 · skew=-0.65 (left-skewed) · kurt=-0.26 (mesokurtic)75420 1-402.51bpbin -402.51bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -402.51bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak-345.86bp 1-289.21bpbin -289.21bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -289.21bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 1-232.56bpbin -232.56bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin -232.56bp · n=1 · 14.3% peak 2-175.91bpbin -175.91bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -175.91bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 2-119.26bpbin -119.26bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin -119.26bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 3-62.60bpbin -62.60bp · n=3 · 42.9% peakbin -62.60bp · n=3 · 42.9% peak 4-5.95bpbin -5.95bp · n=4 · 57.1% peakbin -5.95bp · n=4 · 57.1% peak50.70bp 7107.35bpbin 107.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peakbin 107.35bp · n=7 · 100.0% peak 2164.00bpbin 164.00bp · n=2 · 28.6% peakbin 164.00bp · n=2 · 28.6% peak 1220.65bpbin 220.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakbin 220.65bp · n=1 · 14.3% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 12 · negative 11
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.63 · kurt=-0.04 · near 21 / mid 3 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.00 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.0005
Mid price
$0.0005
24h change
-6.80%
Mark–mid spread
20.83 bps
Prev-day close
$0.0005

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED
μ MEAN0.0005$95% CI: [0.0005$, 0.0005$]
σ STD DEV0.0000$σ² = 0.000×10⁻⁴ · CV = 2.05%
med MEDIAN0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$ · Q₃ 0.0005$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0000$ · IQR 0.0000$ (1.349σ→0.0000$)
min 0.0005$Q₁ 0.0005$med 0.0005$Q₃ 0.0005$max 0.0005$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.407approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.947mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.26
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.95
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDUNPROFITABLE · SR=-8.74
μᵣ MEAN / h-0.153392%drift is negative per h · |μ|/σ = 0.093
σᵣ STD / h1.641847%σ²ᵣ = 2.696×10⁻⁴ · CV = 10.70×
σ ANNUALISED153.67%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 1.642%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)-8.74negative edge
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)-7.35downside drag
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)-100.00drawdown overwhelms returns
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.68left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂0.25mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside vol < total vol · favourableSoR / SR = 0.84
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown > returns · adverseCR = -100.00
EXPECTED EDGE-1343.71%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKHIGH · 95% VaR 2.64%
VaR₉₅ (h)2.644%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)3.949%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)3.527%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN7.19%11h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−2.644%VaR₉₉−3.949%ES₉₅−3.527%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEsignificant drawdown · 11h duration
PEAK0.05$
−7.19% drawdown over 11h
0.05$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.49× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONsignificant drawdownrecovery needed: +7.74% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
46.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.461 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.0005
Bollinger MA
$0.0005
Bollinger lower
$0.0005

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLE
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.192within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.241lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT1.189strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-2.552significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.189
H = 1.189STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.192k=2+0.241k=3-0.129k=4-0.183k=5-0.1600+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMARTINGALE · UNPREDICTABLEfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 5% (|t|=2.55)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$637.44k
Open interest (USD)
$353.86k
Vol / OI (turnover)
1.80x
1h funding
0.001250%
Funding (annualised)
+10.95%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
-5.690× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
-2.845× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
-1.423×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 2.49% · worst -4.31% · typical |Δ| 1.30%MILD BEARISH -3.68%BEST+2.49%16hWORST-4.31%12hTYPICAL |Δ|1.30%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-3.68%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 1down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.13% · Σ -1.05%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.41% · Σ -3.26%US · 16-24 UTCμ +0.08% · Σ +0.63%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -3.68%+0.60%-6.86%-4.31% · 12h-4.31% · 12h-4.31%12h▼ WORST1.04% · 13h1.04% · 13h1.04%13h-1.46% · 14h-1.46% · 14h-1.46%14h0.21% · 15h0.21% · 15h0.21%15h2.49% · 16h2.49% · 16h2.49%16h★ BEST1.83% · 17h1.83% · 17h1.83%17h-0.20% · 18h-0.20% · 18h-0.20%18h1.00% · 19h1.00% · 19h1.00%19h-2.02% · 20h-2.02% · 20h-2.02%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.61% · 22h-0.61% · 22h-0.61%22h-2.07% · 23h-2.07% · 23h-2.07%23h-1.47% · 00h-1.47% · 00h-1.47%00h0.84% · 01h0.84% · 01h0.84%01h-0.42% · 02h-0.42% · 02h-0.42%02h1.26% · 03h1.26% · 03h1.26%03h-2.75% · 04h-2.75% · 04h-2.75%04h1.06% · 05h1.06% · 05h1.06%05h-1.49% · 06h-1.49% · 06h-1.49%06h1.92% · 07h1.92% · 07h1.92%07h0.84% · 08h0.84% · 08h0.84%08h0.00% · 09h0.00% · 09h·09h1.04% · 10h1.04% · 10h1.04%10h-0.62% · 11h-0.62% · 11h-0.62%11hTIME PATTERNUS-led (+0.63%)RUNSup max 3 · down max 3BREADTH50% up · 46% down · 4% flat
12 up bars · 11 down · best 2.49% · worst -4.31% · typical |Δ| 1.299%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS WITH MODERATE DD (-3.92%)FINAL-3.92%MAX DD-7.30%RECOVERYONGOING · 16 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.44%UNDERWATER23/25 (92%)STREAK↘ 1EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9608 · peak 1.0044 · range [0.9311, 1.0044]1.00440.9311break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0044UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -7.30% · significant0%-7.30%▼ TROUGH -7.30%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -7.30%bar 10-25 · 16 bars · ONGOING#2 -4.73%bar 2-8 · 7 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYsignificant (max -7.30%)RECOVERYongoing · 16 barsTIME UNDER WATER92% of session · 23/25 bars
final equity 0.9608 (-3.92%) · max DD -7.30% · time-under-water 23/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +8 / −11 (42% positive) · μ=-6.02 · σ=36.41MIXED EDGELAST 21.25 (+0.75σ vs μ)66.2633.130.00-33.13-66.26μ = -6.02-1.25-1.2542.4342.4342.0642.0632.2232.2232.1432.142.402.40-46.90-46.90-61.85-61.85-66.26-66.26-51.61-51.61-29.96-29.96-44.68-44.68-14.27-14.27-14.45-14.45-3.64-3.647.167.16-3.73-3.7344.6144.6121.2521.25v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 21.246 · range [-66.26, 44.61] · μ -6.016 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=140.7489 · σ=31.2032 · range [99.6855, 234.4191] · R²=0.030▼ FALLING -50.73%σ EXTREME 22.17%LAST 115.4960234.4191200.7357167.0523133.368999.6855μ = 140.7489max 234.4191min 99.6855dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.03μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 115.50% · range [99.69%, 234.42%] · μ 140.75% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +5 / −14 (26% positive) · μ=-0.273 · σ=0.282MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.400 (-0.45σ vs μ)0.7050.3530.000-0.353-0.705μ = -0.273-0.038-0.0380.0440.0440.0970.097-0.051-0.0510.0700.070-0.349-0.349-0.365-0.365-0.338-0.338-0.216-0.2160.0520.0520.0880.088-0.230-0.230-0.682-0.682-0.702-0.702-0.705-0.705-0.541-0.541-0.368-0.368-0.558-0.558-0.400-0.400v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.400 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.8881
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3890
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.0310
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.4127
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-2.4877
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1242
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
1.9339
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0531
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (17 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.0757
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-0.5895
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5555
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.821 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.09e-4 · top T=2.00h (32.7%) · top-3 cover 63.7%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)1.2e-39.1e-46.1e-43.0e-40.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 24.0 · power 3.81e-5 · 1.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.25e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 4.25e-4 · 11.5% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.42e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 5.42e-4 · 14.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.19e-4 · 3.2% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.60e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 8.60e-5 · 2.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.14e-4 · 3.1% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.01e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.01e-5 · 0.8% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.88e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 3.0 · power 3.88e-4 · 10.5% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.08e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 6.08e-4 · 16.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.05e-4 · 2.8% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.08e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.08e-5 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 32.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.21e-3 · 32.7% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=2.67h#3T=8.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 32.7% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.705e-3

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 3.47× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² 3.39× · μ 0.000% · σ 0.09%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.09%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
3.47×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
3.39×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
1.73×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.87×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×f★ empμ/σ²leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.85× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe 3.65400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.85× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.002
annualized 3.65
μ per barafter L
0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.08%
VaR 95%5%
0.18%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.19%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.2%
0.92×0.95×0.99×1.02×1.06×1.09×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 1000% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 7.23σ ann 214% · Sortino 2.95 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%240%480%720%960%1200%1000.0%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)213.6%Ann. vol σ723.4%Sharpe (ann)294.7%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.004% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.0000.0000.0000.0000.0000.001t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:00:57 UTC
Snapshot age
4.8s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:02 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
c3ce329eb23033b65167210d2df97bee80107f7d235c70b7030688a0a6e0bd31 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$17.98K
bid $10.62K · ask $7.36K
Mid price
0.000480
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
20.9bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.071
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.217
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-not/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.00048010.43bp0.0004801FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.00048129.58bp0.0004834FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.000494308.56bp0.00051520FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.00047910.43bp0.0004791FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.00047820.87bp0.0004782FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.000469224.70bp0.00045620PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+1.250e-5
0.00125% / hr
Annualised APR
10.958%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
33.3d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
33.3d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-10.958%33.3d333.3d
SHORTRECEIVE10.958%33.3d333.3d

/api/asset/hl-not/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$1.29B

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-not/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.335 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
13 / 11
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$598.00M
real volume
Sell weight
$298.06M
real volume
Net delta
$299.94M
buyers net
Imbalance
33.47%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
33.5%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-not/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 4 found · deepest 5.79% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-13 20:00:00Z6.0h0.000501→0.0004725.788%7
#22026-06-13 12:00:00Z3.0h0.000498→0.0004754.618%4
#32026-06-14 04:00:00Z2.0h0.000480→0.0004653.125%3

/api/asset/hl-not/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
213.64%
σ per bar = 0.000932
Mean return (annualised)
1545.40%
μ per bar = 0.000003
Sharpe (rf=0)
7.23
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
6.31%
peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 1338 bars

/api/asset/hl-not/risk · same metrics, JSON