HYPERLIQUID · HIP-3 PREDICTION MARKET · OUTCOME #177

Bosnia and Herzegovina

Primary · Yes

0.1¢

Counter · No

99.9¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · pred-bosnia-and-herzegovina-177 · fresh · feed 2s old

realized vol (ann.)

—

max drawdown

—

sharpe

—

ulcer index

—

RMS drawdown

pain index

—

mean drawdown

mod. VaR 95%

—

Cornish-Fisher

martin ratio

—

ret / ulcer

CDaR 95%

—

cond. drawdown

gain/pain

—

Σgain / Σ|loss|

sterling

—

ret / CDaR

omega (θ=0)

—

upside/downside

roll spread

—

implied (price-only)

bars used

insufficient

spread

—

24h Δ

—

flow lean

—

carry

flat

signalNEUTRALconfidence 0%

insufficient history for risk metrics — directional read only

Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-pred-bosnia-and-herzegovina-177/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →

LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.2s⏱--:--:-- UTCNEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30

▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·

Yes mid · live

0.1¢

No mid · live

99.9¢

Yes · live 24h price

20 bars · close 0.11¢ · 24h -62.24%

Probability split · live

Σ 100.00% · fair

Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)

H(p) entropy = 0.016 / 1.00 bits (2%) · informative — one side favoured

Yes

0.1%0.1¢671.14×▬ +0.00pp

99.9%99.9¢1.00×▬ +0.00pp

primary vs counter implied %

Volume · per-hour contracts · live

Σ 120000 · peak 100000

Live numerics · pulse on poll

LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0

⏱snapshot age

2.2s

▲Yes mid

0.149¢

▼No mid

99.851¢

ΣΣ sides

100.00%

Σarb gap |1 − Σ|

0.00pp

Δ24h candles

20 bars

Δ24h close

0.11¢

Δ24h change

-62.24%

§1 · 24h time-series

Mid price · Yes (20 hourly observations)

range [0.11¢, 0.29¢] · span 0.18pp · MA(5) latest 0.16¢

Candlestick · open / high / low / close per hour

20 bars · last close 0.11¢

Hourly traded contracts

Σ vol = 120000 · peak 100000 · mean 6000.0

§2 · Distribution of one-bar increments Δp = pₜ − pₜ₋₁

Histogram of Δp

n=19 · positive 0 · negative 2

Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)

reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics

SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=20APPROXIMATELY NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVED

μ MEAN0.21¢95% CI: [0.19¢, 0.23¢]

σ STD DEV0.05ppσ² = 25.908×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.25%

med MEDIAN0.20¢Q₁ 0.20¢ · Q₃ 0.20¢

FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.18pp · IQR 0.00pp (1.349σ→0.07pp)

SKEWNESS · G₁0.163approximately symmetric

−3−10+1+3

EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.083mesokurtic · normal-like

−30+2+4+6

μ ↔ medianμ > med · right-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.19

σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 0.00

range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.60

μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation · skew (G₁): >0 right-tail · kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI uses 1.96·SE around μ. σ × 1.349 ≈ IQR under normality.

§6 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics

TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: INDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=19

ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.124within white-noise band

ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.073lag-2 not significant

H · HURST EXPONENT1.000strongly persistent

OLS TREND · t-STAT-5.772significant @ α=0.05

HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 1.000

H = 1.000STRONGLY PERSISTENT

0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending

AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags

OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.77)

−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject

REGIME CLASSIFICATIONINDETERMINATE · weak signal at n=19from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis

PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic

TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=5.77)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58

ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§7 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity

MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

OUTCOME ID#177

SLUGbosnia-and-herzegovina-177

QUOTE TOKENUSDC

TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (100¢)

PRIMARY · YES0.15¢implied prob 0.15% · decimal odds 671.14×

COUNTER · NO99.85¢implied prob 99.85% · decimal odds 1.00×

0.15¢

99.85¢

Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%

0%50%100% · target110%

Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp

24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP

24H VOLUME120.00k contracts

MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient

PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (100¢)|primary − counter| = 0.997 · entropy 0.016 bits

LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin

Σ-sides = primary + counter implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§8 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Yes vs No · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage

FAIR MARKET · no edge

Probability scale (Yes)

0%25%50%
fair75%100%

Implied decimal odds

Yes671.14×(0¢)No1.00×(100¢)

Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%

K* full

0.00%

½K half

0.00%

¼K quarter

0.00%

Entropy H(p̂) = 0.016 bits (2% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured

0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)

Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding

K* full = (b·p − q)/b where b = (1−p̂)/p̂ are the net odds implied by p̂. ½K and ¼K are industry-standard conservative fractions.

§9 · Resolution criteria

This outcome resolves to Yes if Bosnia and Herzegovina is officially declared the 2026 FIFA World Cup champion.

§10 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down

0 up bars · 2 down · best 0.00% · worst -0.09% · typical |Δ| 0.010%

§11 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough

final equity 0.9982 (-0.18%) · max DD -0.18% · time-under-water 16/20 bars

§12 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 4 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative

latest -46.797 · range [-46.80, 0.00] · μ -17.549 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window

Rolling annualised volatility (%)

latest 4.16% · range [0.00%, 4.40%] · μ 1.62% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)

Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)

latest -0.417 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§13 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance

2 of 5 REJECT · mixed evidence2 reject·3 pass·1 n/a·α = 0.05

𝒩

Jarque-Bera

REJECT H₀***

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC

58.8222

p-VALUE (log scale)

< 0.0001

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC

0.6626

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.9828

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC

-1.0705

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.7257

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

N/An/a

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC

—

p-VALUE (log scale)

—

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC

0.5864

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.0239

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Variance ratio q=2

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC

-0.3464

p-VALUE (log scale)

0.7290

10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1

Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§14 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n

dominant period ≈ 4.75h (freq 0.211) · concentrates 22.9% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 7.497e-7

§15 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§16 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon

Horizon 7.0 d · σ/bar 0.029pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.37ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0011 · n = 20⊘ disabled · n < 25

μ per bar

-0.010pp

average Δp · drift

σ per bar

0.029pp

one-bar volatility · logit-free

Per-day movedaily

0.14pp

σ × √24

Per-horizon move7d

0.37pp

σ × √168

Terminal variancebinary

0.0011

p(1−p) at resolution

Current pricep

0.1¢

latest snapshot

Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.

Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§17 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown

VaR₉₅ 0.06pp · ES₉₅ 0.07pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.010pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.09pp · unique ratio 0.15⊘ disabled · n < 30

VaR 95%

0.06pp

1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp

ES 95%

0.07pp

mean of the tail

Max drawdown

62.2pp

peak 0.3¢ → trough 0.1¢

Median step

0.09pp

price bucket granularity

Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.

Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§18 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in

Implied probabilityP

0.1%

= price

Decimal oddsEU

671.141

total return per $1

AmericanUS

+67014

$100 wins $67014

FractionalUK

670.14 / 1

profit per $1 risked

Profit per $100stake

+$67014.09

clean dollar framing

underdog (+)favorite (-)your price

Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§19 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information

Market entropyH(p)

0.016 bit

max 1.0 at p = 0.5

Your entropyH(q)

0.016 bit

Δ +0.000 bit vs market

Surprise · YES−log₂ p

9.39 bit

self-information

Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)

0.00 bit

self-information

Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§20 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream: https://hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched: 2026-06-14 19:03:50 UTC
Snapshot age: 2.2s
Page rendered: 2026-06-14 19:03:52 UTC
History points: 20 closes · 20 counter-side closes
Storage policy: no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation: 804f2748ccfaf905e0f5a88cd8019ccc21e1c540d838c0a52e3938e1a63b80cc · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence: CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany100.0¢HL PREDSpain89.5¢HL PREDUruguay66.9¢POLYMARKETWill Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?0¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$63,784.5 HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,661.25 HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.24

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Risk metrics

▸ upstream candles · 20 bars

Realized vol (annualised)

—

σ per bar = 0.157262

Mean return (annualised)

—

μ per bar = -0.051266

Sharpe (rf=0)

—

annualised; risk-free assumed zero

Max drawdown

62.24%

peak 0.00 → trough 0.00 over 18 bars

/api/asset/hl-pred-bosnia-and-herzegovina-177/risk · same metrics, JSON