POLYMARKET · PREDICTION MARKET · GERMANY VS. CURAÇAO

Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14?

YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
98.0¢

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

polymarket · fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor · fresh · feed 11s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▼ —
realized vol (ann.)
21.35%
max drawdown
21.15%
sharpe
—
ulcer index
10.21%
RMS drawdown
pain index
7.38%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
—
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
21.15%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.75
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
—
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.75
upside/downside
roll spread
1.7 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
—
flow lean
—
carry
flat
signalNEUTRALconfidence 20%
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/bundle · venue execution: polymarket →
LIVEPOLL0SRCWARMING10.6s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC WARMING·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
YES · live
2.1¢
NO · live
98.0¢
YES price · live 24h
n=25 · μ=0.0235 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0195, 0.0245] · R²=0.350▼ FALLING -20.41%σ HIGH 5.83%LAST 0.01950.02450.02320.02200.02080.0195μ = 0.0235max 0.0245min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 ticks · last 1.95¢
YES / NO split · live
YES 2.1%NO 98.0%NO98.0%97.95¢ · odds 1/1.02
Σ 100.00% · fair
Σ-sides total = 100.00% (tight rounding)
H(p) entropy = 0.144 / 1.00 bits (14%) · informative — one side favoured
YES
2.1%2.1¢48.78×▬ +0.00pp
NO
98.0%98.0¢1.02×▬ +0.00pp
Σ 100.00% · arb gap 0.00pp
Per-tick activity · |Δp| in basis points · live
n=24 · Σ=170 · μ=7.1 · σ=8.6 · CV=1.21BURSTY · concentratedcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=1908152330μ = 73050%h1h5h9h13h17h21#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ 170bp moved · peak 30bp · n=24 ticks
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS8 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
10.6s
▲YES mid
2.05¢ (2.05%)
▼NO mid
97.95¢ (97.95%)
ΣΣ sides
100.00%
⚖arb gap
0.000pp
$24h vol $
$3.4M
≋liquidity $
$827.0k
◳history points
25 ticks (live)

§1 · 24h price history (YES + NO tokens)

YES price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.0235 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.0195, 0.0245] · R²=0.350▼ FALLING -20.41%σ HIGH 5.83%LAST 0.01950.02450.02320.02200.02080.0195μ = 0.0235max 0.0245min 0.0195dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 YES observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 1.95¢
NO price · CLOB mid
n=25 · μ=0.9765 · σ=0.0014 · range [0.9755, 0.9805] · R²=0.350▲ RISING +0.51%σ LOW 0.14%LAST 0.98050.98050.97930.97800.97680.9755μ = 0.9765max 0.9805min 0.9755dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.35μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
25 NO observations from clob.polymarket.com · last 98.05¢

§2 · Distribution of Δp

Histogram of hourly increments
n=24 · 10 bins · μ=0.0000 · σ=0.0010 · skew=-0.58 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.84 (mesokurtic)1296301-0.28ppbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.28pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.23pp1-0.18ppbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 8.3% peakbin -0.18pp · n=1 · 8.3% peak-0.13pp6-0.08ppbin -0.08pp · n=6 · 50.0% peakbin -0.08pp · n=6 · 50.0% peak-0.03pp120.03ppbin 0.03pp · n=12 · 100.0% peakbin 0.03pp · n=12 · 100.0% peak0.08pp20.13ppbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.13pp · n=2 · 16.7% peak20.18ppbin 0.18pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakbin 0.18pp · n=2 · 16.7% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24
Q-Q plot · standardised Δp vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.18 · kurt=0.85 · near 14 / mid 10 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.96 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit
reference line = identity (perfect normality). Heavy upper-right tail = fat positive tail.

§3 · Sample moments

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25STRONGLY LEFT-SKEWED (G₁=-1.43)
μ MEAN2.35¢95% CI: [2.29¢, 2.40¢]
σ STD DEV0.14ppσ² = 0.019 · CV = 5.83%
med MEDIAN2.35¢Q₁ 2.35¢ · Q₃ 2.45¢
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.50pp · IQR 0.10pp (1.349σ→0.18pp)
min 1.95¢Q₁ 2.35¢med 2.35¢Q₃ 2.45¢max 2.45¢μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-1.429left-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.171leptokurtic · fat tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.03
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRdiverges from normalratio = 1.85
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.65
μ = mean YES probability · σ = standard deviation · 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE. Skew/kurt diagnose departure from normality.

§5 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.274within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR+0.054lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.621persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-3.518significant @ α=0.05
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]persistent · H = 0.621
H = 0.621PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.274k=2+0.054k=3-0.040k=4+0.193k=5-0.1580+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]SIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.52)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.27 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 0.52high · clear structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCESIGNIFICANT @ 1% (|t|=3.52)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§6 · Microstructure

Market quality · two-sided pricing · activity
MICROSTRUCTURE · MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
MARKET ID1897060
SLUGfifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor
CATEGORYGermany vs. Curaçao
TWO-SIDED PRICINGFAVOURS NO (98¢)
PRIMARY · YES2.05¢implied prob 2.05% · decimal odds 48.78×
COUNTER · NO97.95¢implied prob 97.95% · decimal odds 1.02×
2.05¢
97.95¢
Σ-SIDES ARBITRAGE TESTPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%
0%50%100% · target110%
Σ = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.000pp
24H ACTIVITY · LIQUIDITYDEEP
24H VOLUME3.38M USD 24h
LIQUIDITY826.97k USD
MARKET QUALITYPERFECT · ARB-FREE Σ=100.00%|1−Σ| ≤ 0.5pp ⇒ fair · > 2pp ⇒ inefficient
PRICING SKEWFAVOURS NO (98¢)|primary − counter| = 0.959 · entropy 0.144 bits
LIQUIDITY DEPTHDEEP100k+ deep · 10k+ active · 1k+ modest · 100+ thin
Σ-sides = YES + NO implied probabilities. Perfect arb-free Σ = 100%. |1−Σ| > 2pp suggests synthetic outright arbitrage.

§7 · Position sizing & edge analysis

Probability split · YES vs NO · Kelly · entropy · arbitrage
FAIR MARKET · no edge
YES 2.1%NO 98.0%YES p̂2.1%H = 0.144 / 1.00 bits
Probability scale (YES)
0%25%50%
fair75%100%
Implied decimal odds
YES48.78×(2¢)NO1.02×(98¢)
Kelly bet-size (% of bankroll) K* = 0.00%
K* full
0.00%
½K half
0.00%
¼K quarter
0.00%
Entropy H(p̂) = 0.144 bits (14% of max) · informative — one side strongly favoured
0 (certain)0.250.50.751.00 (max)
Σ-sides = 100.00% · |1 − Σ| = 0.00pp · tight cross-venue rounding
K* full = (b·p − q)/b · ½K and ¼K are conservative fractions of the full-Kelly bet. Entropy in bits — log₂(2)=1 is maximum uncertainty for a binary market.

§8 · Time decay & θ projection

Time decay & theta projection
⏱ URGENCY · HIGHresolves 2026-06-14 17:00 UTC
0days
07hrs
14min
7.2 hours·θ = 0.671 pp/day
YES →$1.00(P = 2.1%)
NO →$0.00(P = 98.0%)
current: $0.0205 · expected return per side: $0.98 on YES hit · $0.02 on NO hit
0%25%50%75%100%YES $1NO $0NOW+3.6hRESOLVESP projection · σ=0.14% · path funnel to settle at YES=1 or NO=0
Theta progression · θ ∝ σ / √t_remainingθ_now = 0.671 pp/day
now7.23h left
0.671 pp/day×1.00
−25%5.43h left
0.774 pp/day×1.15
−50%3.62h left
0.948 pp/day×1.41
−75%1.81h left
1.341 pp/day×2.00
−90%0.72h left
2.120 pp/day×3.16
θ approximation: σ/√T (expected daily move magnitude). The cone shows ±√(p̂(1−p̂)) widening as time decays, funneling to {0, 1} at resolution. Theta accelerates as √(t_left)→0.

§9 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δp grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.07%BEARISH SESSION -0.50%BEST+0.20%13hWORST-0.30%22hTYPICAL |Δ|0.07%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE-0.50%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 3down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ +0.00% · Σ +0.00%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.04% · Σ -0.30%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final -0.50%+0.00%-0.50%-0.10% · 1h-0.10% · 1h-0.10%1h0.00% · 2h0.00% · 2h·2h0.10% · 3h0.10% · 3h0.10%3h0.00% · 4h0.00% · 4h·4h0.00% · 5h0.00% · 5h·5h0.00% · 6h0.00% · 6h·6h0.00% · 7h0.00% · 7h·7h0.00% · 8h0.00% · 8h·8h0.00% · 9h0.00% · 9h·9h-0.10% · 10h-0.10% · 10h-0.10%10h0.00% · 11h0.00% · 11h·11h-0.20% · 12h-0.20% · 12h-0.20%12h0.20% · 13h0.20% · 13h0.20%13h★ BEST0.00% · 14h0.00% · 14h·14h0.00% · 15h0.00% · 15h·15h0.00% · 16h0.00% · 16h·16h0.10% · 17h0.10% · 17h0.10%17h0.00% · 18h0.00% · 18h·18h-0.10% · 19h-0.10% · 19h-0.10%19h-0.10% · 20h-0.10% · 20h-0.10%20h0.20% · 21h0.20% · 21h0.20%21h-0.30% · 22h-0.30% · 22h-0.30%22h▼ WORST-0.10% · 23h-0.10% · 23h-0.10%23h-0.10% · 24h-0.10% · 24h-0.10%24hTIME PATTERNuniform across sessionsRUNSup max 1 · down max 3BREADTH17% up · 33% down · 50% flat
4 up bars · 8 down · best 0.20% · worst -0.30% · typical |Δ| 0.071%

§10 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsLOSS · SHALLOW DD (-0.50%)FINAL-0.50%MAX DD-0.50%RECOVERYONGOING · 24 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.00%UNDERWATER24/25 (96%)STREAK↘ 3EQUITY CURVE · end 0.9950 · peak 1.0000 · range [0.9950, 1.0000]1.00000.9950break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0000UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.50% · shallow0%-0.50%▼ TROUGH -0.50%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 1 total#1 -0.50%bar 2-25 · 24 bars · ONGOINGDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.50%)RECOVERYongoing · 24 barsTIME UNDER WATER96% of session · 24/25 bars
final equity 0.9950 (-0.50%) · max DD -0.50% · time-under-water 24/25 bars

§11 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +5 / −10 (26% positive) · μ=-7.13 · σ=30.22UNPROFITABLE STRATEGYLAST -48.68 (-1.38σ vs μ)55.9327.970.00-27.97-55.93μ = -7.130.000.0038.2138.2138.2138.210.000.00-38.21-38.21-38.21-38.21-55.93-55.93-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.74-11.740.000.0011.7411.7455.9355.930.000.00-20.72-20.7213.3413.34-17.82-17.82-38.21-38.21-48.68-48.68v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -48.684 · range [-55.93, 55.93] · μ -7.135 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=8.8969 · σ=4.7307 · range [0.0000, 16.3902] · R²=0.536▲ RISING +153.31%σ EXTREME 53.17%LAST 14.994716.390212.29278.19514.09760.0000μ = 8.8969max 16.3902min 0.0000dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.54μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 14.99% · range [0.00%, 16.39%] · μ 8.90% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +1 / −15 (5% positive) · μ=-0.243 · σ=0.246MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.483 (-0.98σ vs μ)0.5130.2560.000-0.256-0.513μ = -0.2430.0000.000-0.233-0.233-0.033-0.0330.0000.000-0.033-0.033-0.233-0.233-0.214-0.214-0.513-0.513-0.475-0.475-0.456-0.456-0.500-0.500-0.494-0.494-0.214-0.2140.0000.0000.3430.343-0.126-0.126-0.464-0.464-0.483-0.483-0.483-0.483v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.483 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§12 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
1.9668
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3740
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
4.1618
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5282
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0849
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7204
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.4599
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.6456
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (7 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.4923
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0434
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonenon-stationary (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δp is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.0783
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2809
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.672 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§13 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δp · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=1.38e-6 · top T=2.00h (30.6%) · top-3 cover 56.8%1 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEcumulative energy ↗ (1 bin above 2× noise)5.0e-63.8e-62.5e-61.3e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.25e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.25e-7 · 3.2% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.03e-6 · 12.3% energyperiod 12.0 · power 2.03e-6 · 12.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.89e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 9.89e-8 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 6.0 · power 7.92e-7 · 4.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.90e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.90e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 4.0 · power 1.04e-6 · 6.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.31e-6 · 14.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 2.31e-6 · 14.0% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.42e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 5.42e-7 · 3.3% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-6 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.7 · power 1.98e-6 · 12.0% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.31e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.31e-6 · 7.9% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.42e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 4.42e-7 · 2.7% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 30.6% energyperiod 2.0 · power 5.04e-6 · 30.6% energy50% by T=2.7h#1 dominantT=2.00h#2T=3.43h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.00h (freq 0.500) · concentrates 30.6% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 1.650e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (2553 bars · effective 1752810 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§14 · Honest position analytics

A binary-market analytics module framed in horizon time (days to resolution, not annualised). Estimators that need a model probability q as a first-class input (Kelly, KL divergence, Bayesian posterior, Mark-to-Market MC) only render when q is provided externally. Sweep an exploratory q at the interactive simulator →

§15 · Horizon returns

Returns · per bar / per day / per horizon
Horizon 0.3 d · σ/bar 0.015pp · expected |Δp| over horizon 0.04ppterminal variance p(1−p) = 0.0201 · n = 2553✓ n = 2553
μ per bar
-0.000pp
average Δp · drift
σ per bar
0.015pp
one-bar volatility · logit-free
Per-day movedaily
0.07pp
σ × √24
Per-horizon move0d
0.04pp
σ × √7.2349580555555555
Terminal variancebinary
0.0201
p(1−p) at resolution
Current pricep
2.1¢
latest snapshot
Note: annualised Sharpe/Sortino are omitted — they are not meaningful for a bounded fixed-horizon binary contract that snaps to {0, 1} at resolution.
Annualised metrics are intentionally omitted — they don't apply to bounded probability series that resolve at a fixed date.

§16 · Tail risk

VaR · ES · max drawdown
VaR₉₅ 0.03pp · ES₉₅ 0.03pp · method parametric · drift-correcteddrift -0.000pp/bar · quantised: yes · median step 0.05pp · unique ratio 0.00✓ n = 2553
VaR 95%
0.03pp
1.645·σ (parametric) of Δp
ES 95%
0.03pp
mean of the tail
Max drawdown
21.2pp
peak 2.6¢ → trough 2.1¢
Median step
0.05pp
price bucket granularity
Price series is bucketed (cent grid). Empirical quantiles collapse to grid points — parametric N(0, σ²) used instead.
Empirical quantiles unless the price series is bucketed (PM cent grid), in which case parametric N(0, σ²) is used to avoid grid collapse.

§17 · Odds conversion

Odds conversion · every dialect a bettor thinks in
Implied probabilityP
2.1%
= price
Decimal oddsEU
48.780
total return per $1
AmericanUS
+4778
$100 wins $4778
FractionalUK
47.78 / 1
profit per $1 risked
Profit per $100stake
+$4778.05
clean dollar framing
-1000-5000+500+1000020406080100you · 2.1%implied probability (%)American odds
underdog (+)favorite (-)your price
Price → implied probability → decimal odds → American moneyline → fractional. Five views of the same number, plus the moneyline curve.

§18 · Binary entropy

Binary entropy · uncertainty as bits of information
Market entropyH(p)
0.144 bit
max 1.0 at p = 0.5
Your entropyH(q)
0.144 bit
Δ +0.000 bit vs market
Surprise · YES−log₂ p
5.61 bit
self-information
Surprise · NO−log₂(1−p)
0.03 bit
self-information
0.000.260.530.791.050.00.20.40.60.81.0marketmodelprobabilityH (bits)
Market entropy only — model entropy requires an external q.

§19 · Model-dependent surfaces

§ Edge / Kelly / KL · no model probability provided

External model required

The position-economics, Kelly, KL-divergence, Bayesian and Monte-Carlo surfaces require a model probability q as input — a number independent of the market price p.

The previous build defaulted q to a tape-momentum heuristic derived from p; that produces apparent edge that is structurally guaranteed to be small and is not a useful skill signal. The auto-derived path has been removed.

To explore these surfaces with a hypothetical q, open the interactive simulator and drag the MODEL P(YES) slider. To wire a real model, POST to the NOSTRADAMUS hook (TBD) or pass ?q=… on the simulator URL.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream (snapshot)
gamma-api.polymarket.com
Upstream (history)
clob.polymarket.com
YES token ID
84520506461080918199836241264297202134105253634264892405638380867421157597093
NO token ID
23629742762044805884663386782361296528843864508469070874981829600983199849833
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 09:45:43 UTC
Snapshot age
10.6s
History points
25 CLOB mids
Page rendered
2026-06-14 09:45:54 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
d02724e418bdd4475caeccc1ed907c94cb54ee2647e99232e3bb8a6e2b7d294d · deterministic hash of source snapshot
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

HL PREDGermany94.4¢HL PREDSpain90.3¢HL PREDUruguay67.7¢POLYMARKETWill Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETWill Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?0¢POLYMARKETUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?23¢HL PERPBTC-USD perpetual$64,532HL PERPETH-USD perpetual$1,676.6HL PERPHYPE-USD perpetual$60.48

Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed · more in Germany vs. Curaçao

Market depth

▸ live order book · Polymarket YES
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 10bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 50bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Mid price
0.019500
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
512.8bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.804
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.810
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Polymarket YES

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.020529527.54bp0.0210002FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.0254323042.19bp0.0280009FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.10425843465.79bp0.89900086FILLED
SELL$1.00K0.018556483.85bp0.0180002FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.0163911594.42bp0.0160004FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.0121863751.01bp0.00100019PARTIAL

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 2,553 barsperiods/year ≈ 1.75M
Realized vol (annualised)
858.73%
σ per bar = 0.006486
Mean return (annualised)
-9380.53%
μ per bar = -0.000054
Sharpe (rf=0)
-10.92
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
21.15%
peak 0.03 → trough 0.02 over 264 bars

/api/asset/pm-fifwc-ger-kor-2026-06-14-kor/risk · same metrics, JSON