HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

STX

STX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-stx · fresh · feed 3s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.55%
realized vol (ann.)
48.03%
max drawdown
0.75%
sharpe
-87.66
ulcer index
0.47%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.43%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
-8932.14
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.71%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
0.81
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
-5938.11
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
0.81
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
634
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.55%
flow lean
—
carry
longs_pay
5.57%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 35%
  • funding: longs pay — perp shorts get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 14.4bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-stx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH2.9s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.181
24h Δ · live
0.55%
24h vol · live
$0.1M
STX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.1810 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.1798, 0.1834] · R²=0.020▲ RISING +0.55%σ LOW 0.50%LAST 0.18080.18340.18250.18160.18070.1798μ = 0.1810max 0.1834min 0.1798dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.18
Funding direction · live
Long fee 46.4%Short fee 53.6%SHORT FEE53.6%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.996 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
46.4%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
53.6%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding 0.000636% · longs pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=908,274 · μ=36331.0 · σ=33299.4 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=10040,99481,988122,981163,975μ = 36331163,97550%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 163975 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
2.9s
$mark $
$0.1808
$mid $
$0.1808
◉prev-day close
$0.1799
Δ24h Δ %
+0.550%
$24h vol $
$134.96k
◐open interest $
$517.87k
%funding (1h)
0.000636%
%funding (yr)
+5.57%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.1810 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.1798, 0.1834] · R²=0.020▲ RISING +0.55%σ LOW 0.50%LAST 0.18080.18340.18250.18160.18070.1798μ = 0.1810max 0.1834min 0.1798dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.02μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.1808 · 24h 0.55% · range $[0.1798, 0.1834]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 14 · down 11 (56% up) · range [0.1792, 0.1838] · σ=0.0009 · CV=0.01 · bodyµ=50%CONSOLIDATINGCLOSE 0.1808 vs OPEN 0.1810 (-0.15%)&#9660; CLOSE 0.18080.18380.18260.18150.18030.1792μ close = 0.1810O0.181 H0.181 L0.179 C0.180 (-0.69%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.179 C0.180 (-0.69%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.60%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.60%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.179 C0.180 (-0.63%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.179 C0.180 (-0.63%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.04%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.04%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.24%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.24%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.39%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.179 C0.181 (+0.39%)1.0%O0.182 H0.184 L0.181 C0.183 (+1.02%)O0.182 H0.184 L0.181 C0.183 (+1.02%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.00%)O0.183 H0.184 L0.181 C0.182 (-1.00%)O0.182 H0.183 L0.181 C0.182 (+0.24%)O0.182 H0.183 L0.181 C0.182 (+0.24%)O0.182 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.42%)O0.182 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.42%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.183 (+0.75%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.183 (+0.75%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.81%)O0.183 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.81%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.35%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.35%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.35%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.35%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.56%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.56%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.02%)O0.180 H0.180 L0.180 C0.180 (+0.02%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.35%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.35%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (+0.29%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.181 (+0.29%)O0.181 H0.182 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.17%)O0.181 H0.182 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.17%)O0.181 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.61%)O0.181 H0.182 L0.180 C0.180 (-0.61%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.17%)O0.180 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.17%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.42%)O0.181 H0.181 L0.180 C0.181 (+0.42%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.182 (+0.41%)O0.181 H0.183 L0.181 C0.182 (+0.41%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.181 C0.182 (-0.41%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.181 C0.182 (-0.41%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.48%)O0.182 H0.182 L0.181 C0.181 (-0.48%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=908,274 · μ=36331.0 · σ=33299.4 · CV=0.92BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=10040,99481,988122,981163,975μ = 36331163,975163,975 · 100.0% peak163,975 · 100.0% peak27,873.7 · 17.0% peak27,873.7 · 17.0% peak27,580 · 16.8% peak27,580 · 16.8% peak10,193.8 · 6.2% peak10,193.8 · 6.2% peak11,888.3 · 7.3% peak11,888.3 · 7.3% peak18,001.2 · 11.0% peak18,001.2 · 11.0% peak46,784.8 · 28.5% peak46,784.8 · 28.5% peak55,534 · 33.9% peak55,534 · 33.9% peak82,083.9 · 50.1% peak82,083.9 · 50.1% peak25,498 · 15.5% peak25,498 · 15.5% peak21,327.3 · 13.0% peak21,327.3 · 13.0% peak19,650.6 · 12.0% peak19,650.6 · 12.0% peak44,355.9 · 27.1% peak44,355.9 · 27.1% peak23,013.8 · 14.0% peak23,013.8 · 14.0% peak17,910.7 · 10.9% peak17,910.7 · 10.9% peak18,865.7 · 11.5% peak18,865.7 · 11.5% peak25,687.8 · 15.7% peak25,687.8 · 15.7% peak88,677.3 · 54.1% peak88,677.3 · 54.1% peak31,136 · 19.0% peak31,136 · 19.0% peak16,538.5 · 10.1% peak16,538.5 · 10.1% peak15,974.6 · 9.7% peak15,974.6 · 9.7% peak39,577.4 · 24.1% peak39,577.4 · 24.1% peak22,854.6 · 13.9% peak22,854.6 · 13.9% peak12,323.2 · 7.5% peak12,323.2 · 7.5% peak40,968.3 · 25.0% peak40,968.3 · 25.0% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 908274 · peak 163975 · CV 0.92

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0002 · σ=0.0054 · skew=0.01 (symmetric) · kurt=-0.89 (mesokurtic)54310 1-93.55bpbin -93.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -93.55bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 2-74.59bpbin -74.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peakbin -74.59bp · n=2 · 40.0% peak 3-55.62bpbin -55.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -55.62bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 3-36.66bpbin -36.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin -36.66bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 1-17.69bpbin -17.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin -17.69bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 11.27bpbin 1.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 1.27bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak 520.24bpbin 20.24bp · n=5 · 100.0% peakbin 20.24bp · n=5 · 100.0% peak 339.20bpbin 39.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 39.20bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 358.16bpbin 58.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peakbin 58.16bp · n=3 · 60.0% peak 177.13bpbin 77.13bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 77.13bp · n=1 · 20.0% peak96.09bp 1115.06bpbin 115.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakbin 115.06bp · n=1 · 20.0% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 14 · negative 10
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=0.04 · kurt=-0.67 · near 22 / mid 2 / far 0 · OLS slope=1.01 intercept=-0.00MATCHES NORMAL · WELL-BEHAVEDUPPER TAIL NORMALLOWER TAIL NORMAL-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.1808
Mid price
$0.1808
24h change
+0.55%
Mark–mid spread
0.00 bps
Prev-day close
$0.1799

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25RIGHT-SKEWED (G₁=0.63)
μ MEAN0.1810$95% CI: [0.1807$, 0.1814$]
σ STD DEV0.0009$σ² = 0.008×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.50%
med MEDIAN0.1810$Q₁ 0.1802$ · Q₃ 0.1815$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0036$ · IQR 0.0012$ (1.349σ→0.0012$)
min 0.1798$Q₁ 0.1802$med 0.1810$Q₃ 0.1815$max 0.1834$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁0.634right-skewed
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.033mesokurtic · normal-like
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ median≈ equal · symmetric|μ−med| / σ = 0.01
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.99
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.96
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=3.78
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.022649%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.040
σᵣ STD / h0.560520%σ²ᵣ = 0.314×10⁻⁴ · CV = 24.75×
σ ANNUALISED52.46%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.561%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)3.78excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)3.61strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁0.04approximately symmetric
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-0.54mesokurtic · normal-like tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside ≈ total vol · symmetricSoR / SR = 0.95
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+198.40%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKELEVATED · 95% VaR 0.72%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.724%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.960%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.878%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN1.92%8h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.724%VaR₉₉−0.960%ES₉₅−0.878%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEmoderate drawdown · 8h duration
PEAK18.34$
−1.92% drawdown over 8h
17.99$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.21× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONmoderate extreme-tail concentrationratio = 1.33× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONmoderate drawdownrecovery needed: +1.96% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
51.4 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.361 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.1830
Bollinger MA
$0.1813
Bollinger lower
$0.1795

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: MEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejected
ρ(1) AUTOCORR-0.261within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.083lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.928strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT+0.684fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.928
H = 0.928STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1-0.261k=2-0.083k=3-0.229k=4+0.052k=5+0.3270+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.68)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONMEAN-REVERTING · ρ(1) -0.26 + ADF rejectedfrom Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=0.68)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$134.96k
Open interest (USD)
$517.87k
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.26x
1h funding
0.000636%
Funding (annualised)
+5.57%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
7.209× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
3.604× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
1.802×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 1.25% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.48%MILD BULLISH +0.54%BEST+1.25%13hWORST-1.03%14hTYPICAL |Δ|0.48%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.54%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↘ 2down-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.01% · Σ -0.10%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.15% · Σ +1.19%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.07% · Σ -0.55%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.54%+1.99%0.00%0.63% · 08h0.63% · 08h0.63%08h-0.58% · 09h-0.58% · 09h-0.58%09h0.01% · 10h0.01% · 10h0.01%10h0.16% · 11h0.16% · 11h0.16%11h0.52% · 12h0.52% · 12h0.52%12h1.25% · 13h1.25% · 13h1.25%13h★ BEST-1.03% · 14h-1.03% · 14h-1.03%14h▼ WORST0.24% · 15h0.24% · 15h0.24%15h-0.36% · 16h-0.36% · 16h-0.36%16h0.75% · 17h0.75% · 17h0.75%17h-0.73% · 18h-0.73% · 18h-0.73%18h-0.47% · 19h-0.47% · 19h-0.47%19h0.38% · 20h0.38% · 20h0.38%20h-0.72% · 21h-0.72% · 21h-0.72%21h0.19% · 22h0.19% · 22h0.19%22h0.40% · 23h0.40% · 23h0.40%23h0.29% · 00h0.29% · 00h0.29%00h-0.24% · 01h-0.24% · 01h-0.24%01h-0.54% · 02h-0.54% · 02h-0.54%02h0.25% · 03h0.25% · 03h0.25%03h0.45% · 04h0.45% · 04h0.45%04h0.49% · 05h0.49% · 05h0.49%05h-0.35% · 06h-0.35% · 06h-0.35%06h-0.44% · 07h-0.44% · 07h-0.44%07hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+1.19%)RUNSup max 4 · down max 2BREADTH58% up · 42% down
14 up bars · 10 down · best 1.25% · worst -1.03% · typical |Δ| 0.477%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.51%FINAL+0.51%MAX DD-1.94%RECOVERYONGOING · 18 barsMAX RUN-UP+1.99%UNDERWATER21/25 (84%)STREAK↘ 2EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0051 · peak 1.0199 · range [1.0000, 1.0199]1.01991.0000break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0199UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -1.94% · moderate0%-1.94%▼ TROUGH -1.94%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -1.94%bar 8-25 · 18 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.58%bar 3-5 · 3 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYmoderate (max -1.94%)RECOVERYongoing · 18 barsTIME UNDER WATER84% of session · 21/25 bars
final equity 1.0051 (0.51%) · max DD -1.94% · time-under-water 21/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +12 / −7 (63% positive) · μ=3.36 · σ=22.59MIXED EDGELAST -4.94 (-0.37σ vs μ)50.1225.060.00-25.06-50.12μ = 3.3650.1250.126.436.4324.0824.0815.6315.6326.0726.072.052.05-38.27-38.27-5.12-5.12-29.11-29.11-14.79-14.79-27.15-27.152.322.3210.7010.70-20.77-20.7714.8814.8823.6023.6026.1726.171.941.94-4.94-4.94v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -4.936 · range [-38.27, 50.12] · μ 3.360 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=54.7579 · σ=14.7608 · range [34.3084, 82.4354] · R²=0.717▼ FALLING -23.77%σ EXTREME 26.96%LAST 44.140582.435470.403758.371946.340234.3084μ = 54.7579max 82.4354min 34.3084dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.72μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 44.14% · range [34.31%, 82.44%] · μ 54.76% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +7 / −12 (37% positive) · μ=-0.179 · σ=0.302CLOSE TO MARTINGALELAST 0.179 (+1.19σ vs μ)0.6220.3110.000-0.311-0.622μ = -0.1790.1140.114-0.207-0.207-0.364-0.364-0.341-0.341-0.393-0.393-0.622-0.622-0.421-0.421-0.466-0.466-0.517-0.517-0.491-0.491-0.203-0.203-0.348-0.348-0.306-0.3060.1550.1550.1770.1770.2090.2090.2950.2950.1490.1490.1790.179v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 0.179 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
1 of 6 REJECT · mixed evidence1 reject·5 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
0.2976
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.8618
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
7.1823
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2063
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

REJECT H₀*

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-3.3636
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.0132
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p < α · rejection zonestationary · mean-reverting (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
0.5732
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5665
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (14 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.1076
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.5000
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
-1.3543
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1757
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 0.588 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=3.06e-5 · top T=2.40h (33.5%) · top-3 cover 64.8%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)1.2e-49.2e-56.1e-53.1e-50.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 24.0 · power 5.51e-6 · 1.5% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 12.0 · power 1.48e-5 · 4.0% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.22e-5 · 3.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 3.14e-5 · 8.6% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.50e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.8 · power 2.50e-5 · 6.8% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.16e-5 · 22.2% energyperiod 4.0 · power 8.16e-5 · 22.2% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.73e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.4 · power 8.73e-6 · 2.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 3.0 · power 1.71e-5 · 4.7% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.7 · power 3.37e-6 · 0.9% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.23e-4 · 33.5% energyperiod 2.4 · power 1.23e-4 · 33.5% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.31e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.31e-5 · 9.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.10e-5 · 3.0% energy50% by T=3.0h#1 dominantT=2.40h#2T=4.00h#3T=2.18hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 2.40h (freq 0.417) · concentrates 33.5% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.668e-4

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (4750 bars · effective 5249975 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
NO LONG EDGE · μ -0.000% per barparametric μ/σ² -0.06× · μ -0.000% · σ 0.17%
μ per barmean
-0.000%
σ per barvol
0.17%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
0.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
-0.06×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
0.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
0.00×
industry default — survives model error
-0.00%0.02%0.05%0.07%0.10%0.0×0.2×0.5×0.7×0.9×1.1×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 0.10× leverage
Median CAGR/bar -0.000% · annualized Sharpe -2.33400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 0.10× · bootstrap from 4749 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
-0.001
annualized -2.33
μ per barafter L
-0.000%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.01%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.03%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.1%
0.94×0.97×0.99×1.01×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR -86% · APY -100% · Sharpe -0.22σ ann 389% · Sortino -0.18 · n 4749
-120%-3%115%232%349%466%-85.6%APR (simple)-100.0%APY (compound)388.7%Ann. vol σ-22.0%Sharpe (ann)-17.5%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.1660.1740.1820.1910.1990.208t-4749t-3958t-3166t-2375t-1583t-792t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-20 07:59:13 UTC
Snapshot age
2.9s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-20 07:59:16 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
687e9a4744e64757e3fd25153d90571e7c394ab8b7878abc13b99f610a69ba79 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$0
bid $0 · ask $0
Depth within 5bp
$2.86K
bid $2.07K · ask $797
Depth within 10bp
$7.96K
bid $4.07K · ask $3.89K
Depth within 50bp
$57.64K
bid $19.99K · ask $37.65K
Mid price
0.180840
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
6.6bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
-0.213
ask-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.484
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.1809174.27bp0.1809405FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.18104511.36bp0.18118012FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.18124322.27bp0.18140020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.1807703.89bp0.1807603FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.18061212.63bp0.18040010FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.18029730.04bp0.17947020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ LONGS PAY · shorts receive
Hourly funding
+6.362e-6
0.00064% / hr
Annualised APR
5.577%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
65.5d
longs pay
Short: days to 1% carry
65.5d
shorts receive
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGPAY-5.577%65.5d1.79y
SHORTRECEIVE5.577%65.5d1.79y

/api/asset/hl-stx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$908.27K

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-stx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.217 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
14 / 10
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$452.80K
real volume
Sell weight
$291.50K
real volume
Net delta
$161.31K
buyers net
Imbalance
21.67%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
21.7%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-stx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 5 found · deepest 1.52% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-19 18:00:00Z4.0h0.182670→0.1798901.522%5
#22026-06-19 14:00:00Z2.0h0.183410→0.1813101.145%3
#32026-06-20 07:00:00Z0ms0.182220→0.1807800.790%1

/api/asset/hl-stx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 4,750 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.25M
Realized vol (annualised)
388.69%
σ per bar = 0.001696
Mean return (annualised)
-85.55%
μ per bar = -0.000000
Sharpe (rf=0)
-0.22
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
9.81%
peak 0.20 → trough 0.18 over 3982 bars

/api/asset/hl-stx/risk · same metrics, JSON