HYPERLIQUID · PERPETUAL FUTURES

TRX

TRX-USD perpetual · 24/7 trading on Hyperliquid

▸ Advanced metrics · M2M bundle

hyperliquid · perp-trx · fresh · feed 1s old
24h sparkline · 60 pts▲ 0.49%
realized vol (ann.)
13.68%
max drawdown
0.13%
sharpe
107.95
ulcer index
0.05%
RMS drawdown
pain index
0.03%
mean drawdown
mod. VaR 95%
0.00%
Cornish-Fisher
martin ratio
32718.92
ret / ulcer
CDaR 95%
0.11%
cond. drawdown
gain/pain
1.30
Σgain / Σ|loss|
sterling
13552.13
ret / CDaR
omega (θ=0)
1.30
upside/downside
roll spread
0.0 bps
implied (price-only)
bars used
2000
store
spread
—
24h Δ
0.49%
flow lean
—
carry
shorts_pay
-12.52%
signalNEUTRALconfidence 37%
  • funding: shorts pay — perp longs get paid to wait
  • mark cheap vs HL oracle by 8.2bps — long bias
Same bundle via M2M API: /api/m2m/hl-trx/bundle · venue execution: hyperliquid →
LIVEPOLL0SRCFRESH1.0s⏱--:--:-- UTC8NEXT8.0sUP0s--:--HIST0/30
▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·▶ STREAMING·HYPERLIQUID·POLYMARKET·0 POLLS·SRC FRESH·UPTIME 0s·NEXT POLL 8.0s·CC0 OPEN DATA·HYPO.MARKETS·
MARK · live
$0.318
24h Δ · live
0.49%
24h vol · live
$2.4M
TRX · live 24h price
n=25 · μ=0.3166 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.3152, 0.3181] · R²=0.048▲ RISING +0.40%σ LOW 0.30%LAST 0.31770.31810.31740.31660.31590.3152μ = 0.3166max 0.3181min 0.3152dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxminlive endpoint
25 closes · last $0.32
Funding direction · live
Long fee 48.3%Short fee 51.7%SHORT FEE51.7%
Σ = 0.0%
Σ-sides total = 0.00% (100.00pp arb gap)
H(p) entropy = 0.999 / 1.00 bits (100%) · max uncertainty (~50/50)
Long fee
48.3%▬ +0.00pp
Short fee
51.7%▬ +0.00pp
1h funding -0.001429% · shorts pay
Hourly contract volume · live
n=25 · Σ=7,425,826 · μ=297033.0 · σ=251428.0 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy ↗ · 50% by h=100228,403456,806685,209913,612μ = 297033913,61250%h1h5h9h13h17h21h25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
peak 913612 contracts
Live numerics · pulse on poll
LIVE NUMERICS9 metrics·POLL 0
⏱snapshot age
1.0s
$mark $
$0.3177
$mid $
$0.3177
◉prev-day close
$0.3162
Δ24h Δ %
+0.493%
$24h vol $
$2.35M
◐open interest $
$18.54M
%funding (1h)
-0.001429%
%funding (yr)
-12.52%/yr

§1 · 24h time-series

Close price · hourly
n=25 · μ=0.3166 · σ=0.0009 · range [0.3152, 0.3181] · R²=0.048▲ RISING +0.40%σ LOW 0.30%LAST 0.31770.31810.31740.31660.31590.3152μ = 0.3166max 0.3181min 0.3152dataMA(5)OLS R²=0.05μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
mark $0.3177 · 24h 0.49% · range $[0.3152, 0.3181]
OHLC candles · hourly
n=25 · up 18 · down 7 (72% up) · range [0.3149, 0.3181] · σ=0.0009 · CV=0.00 · bodyµ=48%BULLISH +0.50%CLOSE 0.3177 vs OPEN 0.3162 (+0.50%)&#9650; CLOSE 0.31770.31810.31730.31650.31570.3149μ close = 0.3166O0.316 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (+0.09%)O0.316 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (+0.09%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.01%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.01%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.17%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.17%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.11%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.11%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.17%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.17%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.11%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.11%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.03%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.03%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.02%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.02%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.318 (+0.23%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.318 (+0.23%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.318 C0.318 (+0.04%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.318 C0.318 (+0.04%)-0.4%O0.318 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.39%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.39%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.09%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (-0.09%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.07%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.07%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.33%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.316 (-0.33%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.19%)O0.316 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.19%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.00%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.00%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.01%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.01%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.01%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.01%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.07%)O0.315 H0.316 L0.315 C0.315 (-0.07%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.04%)O0.315 H0.315 L0.315 C0.315 (+0.04%)O0.315 H0.317 L0.315 C0.316 (+0.37%)O0.315 H0.317 L0.315 C0.316 (+0.37%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.10%)O0.317 H0.317 L0.316 C0.317 (+0.10%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.09%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.317 (+0.09%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.318 (+0.16%)O0.317 H0.318 L0.317 C0.318 (+0.16%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.318 C0.318 (+0.03%)O0.318 H0.318 L0.318 C0.318 (+0.03%)#1#5#9#13#17#21#25up bar (C≥O)down bar (C<O)MA(5) closeμ closedoji (~no body)biggest body
25 bars
Hourly volume (base units)
n=25 · Σ=7,425,826 · μ=297033.0 · σ=251428.0 · CV=0.85BURSTYcumulative energy &nearr; · 50% by h=100228,403456,806685,209913,612μ = 297033136,407 · 14.9% peak136,407 · 14.9% peak214,091 · 23.4% peak214,091 · 23.4% peak557,761 · 61.1% peak557,761 · 61.1% peak811,827 · 88.9% peak811,827 · 88.9% peak494,270 · 54.1% peak494,270 · 54.1% peak494,071 · 54.1% peak494,071 · 54.1% peak284,672 · 31.2% peak284,672 · 31.2% peak204,376 · 22.4% peak204,376 · 22.4% peak479,228 · 52.5% peak479,228 · 52.5% peak117,760 · 12.9% peak117,760 · 12.9% peak370,083 · 40.5% peak370,083 · 40.5% peak520,813 · 57.0% peak520,813 · 57.0% peak208,319 · 22.8% peak208,319 · 22.8% peak142,755 · 15.6% peak142,755 · 15.6% peak111,871 · 12.2% peak111,871 · 12.2% peak69,336 · 7.6% peak69,336 · 7.6% peak85,743 · 9.4% peak85,743 · 9.4% peak50,849 · 5.6% peak50,849 · 5.6% peak121,905 · 13.3% peak121,905 · 13.3% peak41,896 · 4.6% peak41,896 · 4.6% peak646,866 · 70.8% peak646,866 · 70.8% peak221,407 · 24.2% peak221,407 · 24.2% peak124,701 · 13.6% peak124,701 · 13.6% peak913,612913,612 · 100.0% peak913,612 · 100.0% peak1,207 · 0.1% peak1,207 · 0.1% peak50%#1#5#9#13#17#21#25#1 peak#2-3> μactivequietμ linecum energy
Σ vol 7425826 · peak 913612 · CV 0.85

§2 · Returns distribution (log-returns)

Histogram of rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁)
n=24 · 12 bins · μ=0.0001 · σ=0.0016 · skew=-0.64 (left-skewed) · kurt=0.67 (mesokurtic)97520 2-35.64bpbin -35.64bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -35.64bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak-29.43bp-23.22bp 2-17.01bpbin -17.01bp · n=2 · 22.2% peakbin -17.01bp · n=2 · 22.2% peak 1-10.80bpbin -10.80bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -10.80bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 1-4.59bpbin -4.59bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin -4.59bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 91.62bpbin 1.62bp · n=9 · 100.0% peakbin 1.62bp · n=9 · 100.0% peak 37.83bpbin 7.83bp · n=3 · 33.3% peakbin 7.83bp · n=3 · 33.3% peak 414.04bpbin 14.04bp · n=4 · 44.4% peakbin 14.04bp · n=4 · 44.4% peak20.25bp 126.45bpbin 26.45bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 26.45bp · n=1 · 11.1% peak 132.66bpbin 32.66bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakbin 32.66bp · n=1 · 11.1% peakμΔ < 0 · loss barsΔ ≈ 0 · flatΔ > 0 · gain barsN(μ,σ²) referenceμ line · ±σ band shaded
n=24 · positive 16 · negative 8
Q-Q plot · standardised rₜ vs N(0,1)
n=24 · skew=-0.66 · kurt=0.87 · near 17 / mid 7 / far 0 · OLS slope=0.99 intercept=-0.00APPROXIMATELY NORMALUPPER TAIL NORMALMILDLY HEAVY LOWER-3σ-3σ-2σ-2σ-1σ-1σ+0σ+0σ+1σ+1σ+2σ+2σ+3σ+3σsample ↓marginal: sample bars + theoretical N(0,1) curve →theoretical Φ⁻¹(p) →↑ sample z-quantile|Δ| < 0.3σ · on the line|Δ| < 1σ · moderate|Δ| ≥ 1σ · outliery = x refOLS fit

§3 · Spot quote

Mark price
$0.3177
Mid price
$0.3177
24h change
+0.49%
Mark–mid spread
0.16 bps
Prev-day close
$0.3162

§4 · Sample moments (prices)

Descriptive statistics · 5-number summary · shape diagnostics
SAMPLE MOMENTS · N=25PLATYKURTIC · THIN TAILS (G₂=-1.19)
μ MEAN0.3166$95% CI: [0.3163$, 0.3170$]
σ STD DEV0.0009$σ² = 0.009×10⁻⁴ · CV = 0.30%
med MEDIAN0.3169$Q₁ 0.3159$ · Q₃ 0.3172$
FIVE-NUMBER SUMMARY · BOX PLOTrange 0.0029$ · IQR 0.0014$ (1.349σ→0.0013$)
min 0.3152$Q₁ 0.3159$med 0.3169$Q₃ 0.3172$max 0.3181$μ
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.356approximately symmetric
−3−10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂-1.193platykurtic · thin tails
−30+2+4+6
μ ↔ medianμ < med · left-tailed|μ−med| / σ = 0.27
σ × 1.349 ↔ IQRconsistent with normalratio = 0.92
range ↔ σconcentrated (range < 4σ)range / σ = 3.13
μ = mean · σ = standard deviation · CV = coefficient of variation. Skew (G₁): >0 right-skewed. Kurt (G₂, excess): >0 leptokurtic. 95% CI = μ ± 1.96·SE.

§5 · Returns analytics (log-returns)

Risk-adjusted performance · log-returns
RETURNS · RISK-ADJUSTEDEXCEPTIONAL EDGE · SR=9.52
μᵣ MEAN / h+0.016687%drift is positive per h · |μ|/σ = 0.102
σᵣ STD / h0.164012%σ²ᵣ = 0.027×10⁻⁴ · CV = 9.83×
σ ANNUALISED15.35%/yrscaled by √8760 (hourly→yearly) · 0.164%/h base
RISK-ADJUSTED PERFORMANCEhigher = better edge per unit risk
SHARPE (annualised)9.52excellent · top-decile
-2-10+1+2+3+4
SORTINO (annualised)7.64strong downside-adjusted
-2-10+1+2+3+4
CALMAR (return / max-DD)100.00exceptional DD control
-20+2+4+6
RETURN-DISTRIBUTION SHAPE|skew| < 0.5 ≈ symmetric · |kurt| < 1 ≈ mesokurtic
SKEWNESS · G₁-0.71left-skewed · heavy negative tail
-3-10+1+3
EXCESS KURTOSIS · G₂1.39leptokurtic · fat tails
-30+2+4+6
SORTINO vs SHARPEdownside drag · negatively skewedSoR / SR = 0.80
CALMAR · DD CONTROLdrawdown control exceptionalCR = 100.00
EXPECTED EDGE+146.18%/yr driftμ × 8760 = annualised expectation
rₜ = ln(pₜ/pₜ₋₁). σ × √8760 = annualised. Sharpe = μ/σ scaled; Sortino uses downside-only vol; Calmar = annual return / max drawdown.

§6 · Risk metrics

Tail risk + drawdown · downside diagnostics
TAIL & DRAWDOWN RISKMODERATE · 95% VaR 0.31%
VaR₉₅ (h)0.312%5% prob of larger adverse h move
VaR₉₉ (h)0.375%1% prob · extreme-tail threshold
ES₉₅ (CVaR)0.360%expected loss given 5% tail event
MAX DRAWDOWN0.92%7h from peak to trough
TAIL-RISK LADDER (h losses)larger negative = worse · markers show severity
0 · no lossVaR₉₅−0.312%VaR₉₉−0.375%ES₉₅−0.360%worst tail ←→ zero loss
MAX DRAWDOWN PROFILEshallow drawdown · 7h duration
PEAK31.81$
−0.92% drawdown over 7h
31.52$TROUGH
ES / VaR · TAIL THICKNESSmild tail heaviness|ES₉₅| / |VaR₉₅| = 1.15× (normal ≈ 1.25)
VaR₉₉ / VaR₉₅ · CONCENTRATIONuniform tailratio = 1.20× (normal ≈ 1.41)
DRAWDOWN · CAPITAL DURATIONshallow drawdownrecovery needed: +0.93% (compounding)
VaR = quantile loss · ES (CVaR) = expected loss conditional on tail · DD = peak-to-trough decline. Under normality ES₉₅/VaR₉₅ ≈ 1.25; ratio > 1.5 ⇒ fat-tail regime.

§7 · Technicals

RSI(14)
64.0 · neutral
Bollinger %B
0.787 · within band
Bollinger upper
$0.3186
Bollinger MA
$0.3166
Bollinger lower
$0.3145

§8 · Time-series structure

Regime & autocorrelation diagnostics
TIME-SERIES STRUCTUREREGIME: TRENDING · variance ratio > 1
ρ(1) AUTOCORR+0.242within white-noise band
ρ(2) AUTOCORR-0.122lag-2 not significant
H · HURST EXPONENT0.986strongly persistent
OLS TREND · t-STAT-1.082fails 5% test
HURST EXPONENT [0, 1]strongly persistent · H = 0.986
H = 0.986STRONGLY PERSISTENT
0
anti-persistent0.45
mean-reverting0.5
random walk0.55
persistent1
strongly trending
AUTOCORRELATION FUNCTION · ρ(k) for k=1..5WHITE NOISE · no significant lags
k=1+0.242k=2-0.122k=3+0.319k=4+0.075k=5-0.1150+1−1+0.41−0.41+ momentum (ρ > +0.41)− reversal (ρ < −0.41)noise (within band)±2/√n threshold
OLS TREND · t-STAT · [-5, +5]NOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.08)
−5 reject−1.960 retain H₀+1.96+5 reject
REGIME CLASSIFICATIONTRENDING · variance ratio > 1from Hurst + ρ(1) joint diagnosis
PREDICTABILITY · score 1.00very high · strong structure|ρ(1)| + 2·|H − 0.5| heuristic
TREND SIGNIFICANCENOT SIGNIFICANT (|t|=1.08)α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96 · α=0.01 |t|=2.58
ρ(k) = lag-k sample autocorrelation · H = R/S Hurst exponent · t = OLS-trend t-statistic. Significance bands at ±2/√n approximate the 95% white-noise envelope. α=0.05 critical |t|=1.96; α=0.01 |t|=2.58.

§9 · Microstructure

24h volume (USD)
$2.35M
Open interest (USD)
$18.54M
Vol / OI (turnover)
0.13x
1h funding
-0.001429%
Funding (annualised)
-12.52%/yr

§10 · Position sizing

Continuous Kelly (μ/σ²)
10.000× leverage · optimal log-utility leverage
Half-Kelly
5.000× · industry-standard conservative
Quarter-Kelly
2.500×

§11 · Hourly return heatmap

24-hour signed Δln-r grid · green = up · red = down
HOURLY RETURN HEATMAP · n=24 bars · best 0.36% · worst -0.39% · typical |Δ| 0.12%MILD BULLISH +0.40%BEST+0.36%07hWORST-0.39%21hTYPICAL |Δ|0.12%mean absoluteCUMULATIVE+0.40%Σ signed ΔSTREAK↗ 6up-runASIA · 00-08 UTCμ -0.02% · Σ -0.13%EUROPE · 08-16 UTCμ +0.07% · Σ +0.54%US · 16-24 UTCμ -0.00% · Σ -0.01%CUMULATIVE Δ PATH · final +0.40%+0.51%-0.41%0.03% · 12h0.03% · 12h0.03%12h0.17% · 13h0.17% · 13h0.17%13h0.11% · 14h0.11% · 14h0.11%14h-0.17% · 15h-0.17% · 15h-0.17%15h0.05% · 16h0.05% · 16h0.05%16h0.03% · 17h0.03% · 17h0.03%17h0.01% · 18h0.01% · 18h0.01%18h0.24% · 19h0.24% · 19h0.24%19h0.04% · 20h0.04% · 20h0.04%20h-0.39% · 21h-0.39% · 21h-0.39%21h▼ WORST-0.08% · 22h-0.08% · 22h-0.08%22h0.09% · 23h0.09% · 23h0.09%23h-0.33% · 00h-0.33% · 00h-0.33%00h-0.20% · 01h-0.20% · 01h-0.20%01h-0.01% · 02h-0.01% · 02h-0.01%02h-0.01% · 03h-0.01% · 03h-0.01%03h0.04% · 04h0.04% · 04h0.04%04h-0.03% · 05h-0.03% · 05h-0.03%05h0.04% · 06h0.04% · 06h0.04%06h0.36% · 07h0.36% · 07h0.36%07h★ BEST0.14% · 08h0.14% · 08h0.14%08h0.11% · 09h0.11% · 09h0.11%09h0.12% · 10h0.12% · 10h0.12%10h0.02% · 11h0.02% · 11h0.02%11hTIME PATTERNEurope-led (+0.54%)RUNSup max 6 · down max 4BREADTH67% up · 33% down
16 up bars · 8 down · best 0.36% · worst -0.39% · typical |Δ| 0.117%

§12 · Equity curve & underwater drawdown

Cumulative compounded return + running peak-to-trough
EQUITY & DRAWDOWN ANALYSIS · n=25 barsPROFITABLE +0.40%FINAL+0.40%MAX DD-0.92%RECOVERYONGOING · 15 barsMAX RUN-UP+0.51%UNDERWATER19/25 (76%)STREAK↗ 6EQUITY CURVE · end 1.0040 · peak 1.0051 · range [0.9959, 1.0051]1.00510.9959break-even = 1★ PEAK 1.0051UNDERWATER DRAWDOWN · max -0.92% · shallow0%-0.92%▼ TROUGH -0.92%TOP DRAWDOWN PERIODS · 2 total#1 -0.92%bar 11-25 · 15 bars · ONGOING#2 -0.17%bar 5-8 · 4 bars · recoveredDD SEVERITYshallow (max -0.92%)RECOVERYongoing · 15 barsTIME UNDER WATER76% of session · 19/25 bars
final equity 1.0040 (0.40%) · max DD -0.92% · time-under-water 19/25 bars

§13 · Rolling-window statistics (w = 6 bars)

Rolling annualised Sharpe ratio · green positive · red negative
n=19 · +9 / −10 (47% positive) · μ=6.11 · σ=54.49MIXED EDGELAST 103.98 (+1.80σ vs μ)103.9851.990.00-51.99-103.98μ = 6.1130.5430.5427.3727.3731.8731.8724.7224.72-1.19-1.19-10.96-10.96-6.53-6.53-27.45-27.45-69.63-69.63-77.13-77.13-55.28-55.28-40.15-40.15-57.41-57.41-27.35-27.3542.7342.7360.0860.0877.6977.6990.1690.16103.98103.98v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest 103.977 · range [-77.13, 103.98] · μ 6.109 · positive Sharpe = excess-return-per-risk earned by buying-and-holding through this window
Rolling annualised volatility (%)
n=19 · μ=14.5655 · σ=3.8811 · range [8.2881, 23.0211] · R²=0.045▲ RISING +6.27%σ EXTREME 26.65%LAST 11.225023.021119.337915.654611.97148.2881μ = 14.5655max 23.0211min 8.2881dataMA(3)OLS R²=0.04μ lineμ ± σ bandmaxmin
latest 11.22% · range [8.29%, 23.02%] · μ 14.57% · σ̂ scaled to annualised (×√8760)
Rolling lag-1 autocorrelation ρ(1)
n=19 · +6 / −13 (32% positive) · μ=-0.046 · σ=0.184MEAN-REVERSIONLAST -0.233 (-1.02σ vs μ)0.4200.2100.000-0.210-0.420μ = -0.046-0.120-0.120-0.120-0.120-0.222-0.222-0.068-0.068-0.001-0.0010.1230.1230.0830.083-0.134-0.134-0.420-0.420-0.238-0.238-0.154-0.154-0.037-0.0370.4090.409-0.039-0.0390.0510.0510.1720.1720.1140.114-0.031-0.031-0.233-0.233v > 0 · positivev < 0 · negativeμ mean lineμ ± σ bandlatest bar (outlined)
latest -0.233 · |ρ| > 0.3 ⇒ regime with persistence (ρ > 0) or reversal (ρ < 0) · |ρ| ≤ 0.1 = consistent with random walk

§14 · Hypothesis tests (α = 0.05)

Formal inference at 5% significance
ALL TESTS PASS · data behaves as nominal0 reject·6 pass·α = 0.05
𝒩

Jarque-Bera

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r ~ Normal(μ, σ²)

STATISTIC
3.9317
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.1400
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainednormality not rejected
ρ

Ljung-Box(h=5)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: No serial autocorrelation up to lag 5

STATISTIC
5.6316
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3436
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedconsistent with white noise
Ψ

Dickey-Fuller (τ_μ)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p has a unit root (non-stationary)

STATISTIC
-1.0771
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.7233
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedrandom-walk behaviour (crit ≈ -2.86)
±

Wald-Wolfowitz runs

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Sign sequence of Δ is random

STATISTIC
-1.2594
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2079
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedsigns appear random (9 runs)
χ

KPSS (μ stationarity)

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: p IS level-stationary

STATISTIC
0.2058
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.3466
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedstationary not rejected (crit 0.463)
χ

Variance ratio q=3

FAIL TO REJECTns

H₀: Δln-r is a random walk · VR = 1

STATISTIC
1.0936
p-VALUE (log scale)
0.2741
α
10⁻⁴10⁻³10⁻²10⁻¹1
p ≥ α · null retainedVR 1.333 ≈ 1 (RW behaviour)
Each row states an explicit null H₀, the test statistic, an approximated p-value, and the decision. REJECT means evidence against H₀. KPSS complements ADF (rejecting both ⇒ ambiguous; rejecting one ⇒ clean verdict).

§15 · Spectral analysis (DFT periodogram)

Power spectrum of Δln-r · ‖X̂(k)‖²/n
n=12 bins · noise floor μ=2.58e-6 · top T=24.00h (26.1%) · top-3 cover 58.9%2 SIGNIFICANT CYCLEScumulative energy ↗ (2 bins above 2× noise)8.1e-66.1e-64.0e-62.0e-60.0e+0μ noise floor2× noise (significance)period 24.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 26.1% energyperiod 24.0 · power 8.07e-6 · 26.1% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 11.4% energyperiod 12.0 · power 3.54e-6 · 11.4% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 8.0 · power 1.72e-7 · 0.6% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 6.0 · power 1.64e-6 · 5.3% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.30e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.8 · power 3.30e-6 · 10.7% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-6 · 10.0% energyperiod 4.0 · power 3.08e-6 · 10.0% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.19e-6 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.4 · power 3.19e-6 · 10.3% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.61e-6 · 21.4% energyperiod 3.0 · power 6.61e-6 · 21.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.45e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.7 · power 7.45e-7 · 2.4% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.29e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.4 · power 2.29e-7 · 0.7% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.36e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.2 · power 3.36e-7 · 1.1% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.55e-8 · 0.0% energyperiod 2.0 · power 1.55e-8 · 0.0% energy50% by T=4.8h#1 dominantT=24.00h#2T=3.00h#3T=12.00hT=2hT=3hT=4hT=6hT=8hT=12hT=16hT=24h← shorter cycle (high freq · Nyquist=½) · period T (bars per cycle) · longer cycle (low freq · 1/n) →#1 dominant#2 peak#3 peak> 2× noisenoiseμ floor2μ sig.cum energy
dominant period ≈ 24.00h (freq 0.042) · concentrates 26.1% of total energy · Σ|X̂|²/n = 3.094e-5

▸ Depth section using sovereign-store price series (5000 bars · effective 5258724 bars/year) — annualisation reflects native polling cadence, not upstream timeframes.

§16 · NOSTRADAMUS continuous quant — perp leverage & bootstrap MC

Continuous-price extension of the prediction-market quant module. Kelly growth on observed returns (Merton μ/σ² parametric vs argmax empirical), Monte-Carlo equity fan bootstrapped from the historical return distribution at quarter-Kelly leverage, and an annualized return decomposition. Sweep parameters in the simulator.

§17 · Continuous Kelly

Continuous-Kelly growth · g(f) = E[ln(1 + f·r)]
f★ empirical 8.00× · g(f★) 0.001%/barparametric μ/σ² >100× (sample noise) · μ 0.000% · σ 0.01%
μ per barmean
0.000%
σ per barvol
0.01%
Empirical f★argmax g(f)
8.00×
from observed distribution
Parametric f★μ/σ²
467.92×
Merton continuous-time
Half-Kelly½ f★
4.00×
~⅔ of full growth, half the variance
Quarter-Kelly¼ f★
2.00×
industry default — survives model error
0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.0×1.6×3.2×4.8×6.4×8.0×leverage fraction fexpected log-growth per bar
g(f) empiricalf★ argmaxparametric f★
Maximum expected log-growth from leveraging the historical return distribution. Empirical f★ argmaxes the sample expectation; parametric f★ = μ/σ² is Merton's continuous-time optimum.

§18 · MC equity fan

Bootstrapped equity fan at 3.00× leverage
Median CAGR/bar 0.001% · annualized Sharpe 66.90400 paths × 720 bars · leverage 3.00× · bootstrap from 4999 observed returns
Sharpe / barμ/σ
0.029
annualized 66.90
μ per barafter L
0.001%
σ per barafter L
0.02%
VaR 95%5%
0.02%
per-bar worst-case
CVaR 95%ES
0.04%
mean tail loss
Max DD (median)MDD
-0.0%
0.95×0.97×0.99×1.02×1.04×1.06×0120240360480600720startbar #equity multiple
median25/75 band5/95 band
Median path with 25/75 and 5/95 percentile bands across 400 simulated careers. Bars resample with replacement from the observed return distribution — preserves fat tails the parametric model misses.

§19 · Annualized breakdown

Annualized return components
APR 848% · APY 1000% · Sharpe 62.98σ ann 13% · Sortino 36.67 · n 4999 · ⚠ capped (n=4999 too small to support 8760-bar projection)
0%1511%3023%4534%6046%7557%847.6%APR (simple)1000.0%APY (compound)13.5%Ann. vol σ6297.9%Sharpe (ann)3667.2%Sortino (ann)
Simple APR vs compounded APY · annualized volatility · risk-adjusted Sharpe and Sortino. All scaled by √(periods/yr).

§20 · GARCH(1,1) volatility band

GARCH(1,1) · conditional vol envelope (±2σ)
GARCH persistence α+β = 0.980· σ̂ₜ = 1.000% · long-run σ = 2.236%
0.3030.3080.3140.3190.3250.331t-4999t-4166t-3333t-2500t-1666t-833t-0

Persistence near 1 ⇒ vol clusters strongly (slow mean reversion). Long-run σ is the unconditional target the conditional vol orbits. The ±2σ band reflects time-varying scale, unlike a flat-vol band.

Time-varying volatility band fitted to the price series. Persistence α+β > 0.98 means vol shocks decay slowly — recent moves stay relevant.

§∞ · Provenance & attestation

Upstream
api.hyperliquid.xyz
Snapshot fetched
2026-06-14 11:01:21 UTC
Snapshot age
1.0s
History points
25 hourly closes
Page rendered
2026-06-14 11:01:22 UTC
Storage policy
no persistence — fetched on every request
SHA-256 attestation
7c2f80104acec1dd55ab7a2bfa157ec314569d8d94c073d7c0c9d949d20d5783 · deterministic hash of the source snapshot — proves this page was rendered from this exact data
Open data licence
CC0 / public domain · free to mirror, syndicate, analyse

§∞-2 · Related markets · explore more

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Also see: /arb opportunities · RSS feed

Market depth

▸ live order book · Hyperliquid perp
Depth within 1bp
$1.68K
bid $902 · ask $777
Depth within 5bp
$22.98K
bid $11.66K · ask $11.32K
Depth within 10bp
$77.53K
bid $40.28K · ask $37.25K
Depth within 50bp
$112.02K
bid $67.61K · ask $44.41K
Mid price
0.317735
(best bid + best ask) / 2
Spread
0.3bp
(bestAsk − bestBid) / mid
Imbalance (whole book)
+0.208
bid-heavy
Imbalance (top-5)
+0.091
bid-heavy top-of-book

Slippage scenarios

▸ live book walk · Hyperliquid perp

Simulating a market order at three notionals against the live book. Slippage = avg execution price vs. mid, in basis points. Worst fill = price of the deepest level touched. Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trx/slippage?size=10000&side=buy

SideNotionalAvg fillSlippageWorst fillLevelsStatus
BUY$1.00K0.3177550.62bp0.3178004FILLED
BUY$10.00K0.3178333.08bp0.3178907FILLED
BUY$100.00K0.3179677.32bp0.31810020PARTIAL
SELL$1.00K0.3177250.31bp0.3176802FILLED
SELL$10.00K0.3176492.69bp0.3175906FILLED
SELL$100.00K0.3174399.33bp0.31731020PARTIAL

Funding carry

▸ SHORTS PAY · longs receive
Hourly funding
-1.429e-5
-0.00143% / hr
Annualised APR
-12.527%
hourly · 24 · 365.25
Long: days to 1% carry
29.2d
longs receive
Short: days to 1% carry
29.2d
shorts pay
SideDirectionAnnualised carryDays → 1%Days → 10%
LONGRECEIVE12.527%29.2d291.6d
SHORTPAY-12.527%29.2d291.6d

/api/asset/hl-trx/carry · same metrics, JSON

Volume profile

▸ real volume · Hyperliquid candlesstep $ 1 · 25 records
Price binBarsVolumeDistribution
$0.000000–$1.0000★25$7.43M

★ POC = Point of Control (highest-volume bin). Live JSON: /api/asset/hl-trx/volprofile?priceStep=1

Order flow

▸ BID-LEAN · +0.474 · Hyperliquid candles
Bars (buy / sell)
16 / 8
1 unclassified
Buy weight
$5.37M
real volume
Sell weight
$1.92M
real volume
Net delta
$3.46M
buyers net
Imbalance
47.41%
(buy − sell) / (buy + sell)
Toxicity (VPIN)
47.4%
two-sided / balanced
Impact (|Δp|/vol)
—
needs real volume

Sparkline = cumulative delta over the 25-record window./api/asset/hl-trx/flow?rollingWindow=30

Cascade clusters

▸ DOWN · 1 found · deepest 0.54% · Hyperliquid candles

Price-only proxy for forced-unwind clusters. No exchange liquidation feed is wired — read each row as a candidate event, not a confirmed liquidation.

#WindowDurationPeak → TroughDrawdownBars
#12026-06-14 01:00:00Z1.0h0.316900→0.3152000.536%2

/api/asset/hl-trx/cascades?windowMs=10800000&minDrawdownPct=0.005 · full list + parameters in JSON

Risk metrics

▸ sovereign store · 5,000 barsperiods/year ≈ 5.26M
Realized vol (annualised)
13.46%
σ per bar = 0.000059
Mean return (annualised)
847.65%
μ per bar = 0.000002
Sharpe (rf=0)
62.98
annualised; risk-free assumed zero
Max drawdown
0.20%
peak 0.32 → trough 0.32 over 547 bars

/api/asset/hl-trx/risk · same metrics, JSON